Thread by @tcani

I’ve seen polling (recent polling even.) Sinema gets crushed in a primary by any dem. Dissatisfaction w/ the way she operates is not a left-wing thing. Dems of all ages & ideologies are frustrated with the way she operates, plus the vast majority of Rs will vote for an R nominee.

Ds across the spectrum dislike the way Sinema operates so much that she gets no credit for passing widely popular legislation. Her significant legislative wins this session has not improved her standing even a little. Voters have made up their minds about her & have not budged.

One of the challenges Sinema has is she is very memorable. So dissatisfaction is not limited to twitter and party insiders and the hyper involved. Average voters know her & now know they don’t like her. Or rather, don’t like her brand. It’s near impossible to break out of that.

Her base in 2022 is extremely narrow. Like corporate lobbyists only narrow. And that’s it. And watch, they will all be on AZ political twitter saying how there is no way she loses and they will make McCain comparisons.

McCain is a poor comparison. He began struggling with the right wing of his party late in his career but had decades of popularity w independents to make those squabbles irrelevant. Sinema is only in her 1st term & her struggle is with all dems not just left wingers.

A significantly better historic AZ comparison would be Flake’s one term, but even that isn’t right. Sinema passed stuff. Flake was a non factor. So, I think this is a pretty unique situation where voters soured on someone they used to really like. A total brand trust collapse.

There is a political lesson here, but I’m not sure what it is. I don’t think it’s “PR trumps policy making” but it might be. It’s def not “if you make both sides unhappy you must be doing something right!” But I keep thinking of one anecdote …

A friend is a big Sinema supporter, someone she knows by name. They ran into each other at an event & after warm greetings this person asked “I wanna be helpful, what can I tell my people when they complain about what’s going on?” Sinema smiled and said “tell them to fuck off.”

Here’s the thing. This supporter wasn’t looking for a joke. Essentially they told Sinema “I believe in you. I want to put my credibility on the line to defend you.” And she essentially said “I don’t need anyone’s help this shit doesn’t matter.” But, eventually, some shit matters.

Maybe she pulls this off. I mean, she hasn’t lost an election since she ran for state leg. as a Green Party candidate in 2002. And she is having a historic legislative session. And you can’t underestimate how smart Sinema is. But the reelection math folks! It doesn’t look good!