Gavin Baker Profile picture
Dec 9 7 tweets 2 min read
1) The fact that Twitter is running well with headcount down significantly really matters.

Whether they admit or not, everyone in SV admires Elon.

A lot of venture funded CEOs are sending emails like this; inspired by Elon and taking drastic action.

Margins are going up.
2) “Things are supposed to be hard.”

This mentality will impact most tech companies.

We will start to hear “lighter is faster” and references to small teams being superior to large teams.

A gift from God to VCs with rosters full of “Summer” CEOs because “Winter” is here.
3) Strong CEOs cut early which increases the co’s odds of success. Burn is an area under the curve problem.

This is more compassionate as the laid off employees enter a stronger job market while also being better for remaining employees as the company is less likely to fail.
4) Weak CEOs cut late and thereby put everyone at risk.

They have to cut more because they are cutting later and the employees thereby enter a weaker job market. By trying to be compassionate they actually just hurt everyone involved.

CEOs are paid to make hard decisions.
5) And make no mistake - cutting costs is a really hard decision.

“Costs” are often just a euphemism for employees and these are real people with real lives. Not just numbers on a spreadsheet.

And yes for the reply people, I have made these points before.
6) TLDR, capital scarcity is going to advantage strong, “Winter” CEOs who have generally been inspired by what Elon is doing at Twitter.

They are going to drive margins and do more with less.

Their companies will be more likely to succeed and their employees will do better.
7) And to cover all bases, I had permission to share that email.

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More from @GavinSBaker

Dec 11
1) It is really strange that no image/video focused social network has released a native version of Lensa or otherwise incorporated generative AI.

Instagram *started* as a photo filter app.
2) TikTok represented a mortal threat to the incumbent and was ignored until almost too late in favor of trying to spend the Metaverse into existence.

Generative AI represents a clear opportunity/adjacency.

All the new filters are way behind Lensa. Yes, aware of Blenderbot.
3) I can only imagine the bureaucracy that led Lensa to beating Instagram to this functionality. Would’ve expected TikTok to be there.

Much stranger than LamDA not being released. Search needs to be accurate. No such rationale here.

Reference article:

techcrunch.com/2022/12/01/len…
Read 5 tweets
Nov 29
1) It was interesting to see the results of a formerly dominant, now share losing athletic shoe co. be extrapolated to A) competitors gaining share and B) retailers benefitting from increased competition amongst suppliers.

Will likely see the same movie tomorrow in software.
2) The first movie was obviously incorrect given subsequent results. Lateral thinking is important, but mindless readthroughs are dangerous.

Time will tell on the accuracy of tomorrow's movie - i.e. share loss for front office sw incumbent, mkt weakness or some combination.
3) Also crazy to me how strong sporting goods/athletic shoe spending is right now. It accelerated over the weekend and comps gets easier.
Read 6 tweets
Nov 15
1) Generative AI is the most important fundamental technology breakthrough since Deep Learning 2014ish.

Will have a massive impact on every creative industry & social network.

Here is a movie set in the MCU with a Spiderverse theme - created with AI.
2) All content will be personalizable over time. Books, movies, tv shows, videogames. This is a reality today for images and text.

This is actually happening.

I know it's not cool to talk about tech anymore b/c of "regime change" but the world is changing before our eyes.
3) I am skeptical of the venture opportunity here as I think incumbents are likely to capture a lot of the value, but super bullish on what it is going to do to Semiconductor demand.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 24
1) A thread of hypotheses, loosely held.

This recession will be nothing like 2002, when EPS for the companies in the S&P 500 tech GIC declined 80%. Tech EPS likely even more stable this time than in 08/09 when EPS declined only -3%ish. Function of shift to recurring revs.
2) From a trading perspective, weakness needs to be bought and strength needs to be sold.

Said another way, cannot chase and cannot press.

BTDSTR.

Freedom comes from discipline.
3) Actual inflation #’s are more important than the Fed. The market will trade on the former even more than the latter.

This is likely to be the first recession in living memory with positive nominal GDP growth and healthy consumer balance sheets. Prior playbooks may not work.
Read 23 tweets
Oct 9
1) The new US export controls on semiconductors feel like the plot of the “Three Body Problem” unfolding in the real world.

The export controls will function like Sophons given supercomputers are essential for some basic scientific research in addition to military applications
2) Individual company impact of the export controls for China HPC:

China has 173 supercomputers in the top500 list.

172 use either Xeon or Chinese developed CPUs. Tesla GPUs (generally v100) and Infiniband are the second most common components.

1 of the 173 uses EPYC CPUs.
3) Actual top500 list for anyone curious. I was quite surprised that EPYC share was so low.

top500.org/statistics/sub…
Read 9 tweets
Sep 26
1) Great Charlie McElligott note this AM.

Cleveland Fed Nowcast CPI strength through 9/13 is most ironically a catalyst for further USD strength.

“Everything else is an emerging market” as we effectively export our inflation problem to solve it.

A MS chart on the topic: Image
2) Really is wild that *higher* US inflation is a driver of USD strength.

The upside down.

Reminds me of 90s saying: “When America sneezes, the rest of the world catches a severe cold.” We are more than sneezing in this analogy.
3) Implication would simply be:

TARA within American Financial Assets, TINA to American Financial Assets for RoW. All very ST (3-12 months) focused.

Who knows, I am no expert, time will tell, etc.
Read 6 tweets

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