The FTC's antitrust case against Meta/Within already faces long odds.
But per MLEX reporting, FTC expert witness @HalSinger faced a very skeptical judge yesterday regarding a questionable survey he commissioned of Supernatural users.
🧵.. 1/
But per MLEX reporting, FTC expert witness @HalSinger faced a very skeptical judge yesterday regarding a questionable survey he commissioned of Supernatural users.
🧵.. 1/
You may remember that the FTC contorted itself to define a "VR dedicated fitness app" market definition, arguing that Meta *would have* competed in vs. Within if not for this deal:
https://twitter.com/adamkovac/status/15546096314602987522/
FTC failed in court once before in crafting an overly narrow market definition -- in the Instagram/Whatsapp case -- and their too-cute definition here risks the same result:
https://twitter.com/adamkovac/status/15524881374731182113/
That gets us to @HalSinger. To justify the super-niche market definition -- the threshold element in the FTC's case -- he ran a survey of Supernatural users.
Per @Swiftstories, "Singer found himself on the defensive" over the survey: 4/
Per @Swiftstories, "Singer found himself on the defensive" over the survey: 4/
The survey results back up the FTC's argument for this market definition. But under cross, it came out that the survey was highly sus (as my 10 y/o would say):
🚩 15 of 150 respondents came from Rogersville, TN (perhaps a hub of VR market expertise??)
🚩 15 of 150 respondents came from Rogersville, TN (perhaps a hub of VR market expertise??)
https://twitter.com/Swiftstories/status/16027926496306667585/
🚩 61% answered from IP addresses outside their home states
🚩 21 people said they regularly use *all* 27 fitness apps listed (some serious fitness buffs there...) 6/
🚩 21 people said they regularly use *all* 27 fitness apps listed (some serious fitness buffs there...) 6/
🚩 And *one-third* of survey respondents said they "regularly used an obscure, $14,000 VR fitness device called Icaros from a company founded in Munich, Germany."
This is it: 7/
This is it: 7/
Singer "struggled to answer" questions about the red flags around the survey methodology and respondents 8/
Judge Davila seemed somewhat troubled about the survey, and asked aloud about tossing one question that backed up the FTC's case.
https://twitter.com/Swiftstories/status/16028138923878236169/
Post-cross, Khan allies spun that actually the survey didn't matter that much ⤵️
But that's wishful thinking. The case rests on the market definition, and the market defition rests on the questionable "Rogersville, Tenn VR Fitness Buff" survey.
But that's wishful thinking. The case rests on the market definition, and the market defition rests on the questionable "Rogersville, Tenn VR Fitness Buff" survey.
https://twitter.com/LeeHepner/status/160283178161452236910/
Perhaps, just perhaps, that is why the FTC staff never wanted to bring this case...
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 11/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 11/
Or as @HalSinger put it: 12/
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