2/x Uncannily, Gen. Zaluzhny echoes a senior US military officer: "We are talking about the scale of WW1 [in which the British Army fired a million shells...I was told, “We will lose Europe. We will have nothing to live on if you fire that many shells.” defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
3/x Zaluzhny says the brutal Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy grid and critical infrastructure are working and could have a major impact on his soldiers' will to fight.
4/x According to Zaluzhy, the advantage provided by US-provided HIMARS systems has diminished as the Russians have adapted and sought to move their forces out of range.
5/x Ukraine's strategic objectives per Zaluzhny: to prevent any loss of add'l territory and to replenish/rebuild 🇺🇦 forces for an expected round of fighting early in 2023 that will be as pivotal as the 1st phase of the Russian invasion.
He admits his thinking may be unpopular.
6/x Zaluzhny defines effective leadership via a Gogol literary reference & why 🇺🇦 has performed so well vs a Russian adversary force led by Gen. Surovikin. ("You look at him & understand that either you complete the task or you’re f-ed. We had long realized this does not work.")
7/7 Finally, Zaluzhny is not scornful of the Russian military call-up. He says Putin's autumn mobilization "has worked" and that the Russians are re-grouping ahead of a bigger push in 2023.
.@nickschifrin and I covered several key themes from the book, including Putin’s frequent embellishment of his life story (which was perfectly interesting already!) and self-serving portrayal of Russia’s convulsive history to justify his own actions. 2/
For example, Putin’s older brother Viktor was among the nearly million people who perished during the unspeakably horrible, 872-day Nazi siege of Leningrad. Viktor Putin was only one years old.
1/x New Kremlin talking points about 🇺🇦 set up a head-on collision with the general public.
Take heed of this major rhetorical shift from Putin's senior political advisor, Sergei Kiriyenko. tass.ru/politika/16127…
2/x Kiriyenko spoke at length a forum of educators and school administrators. "Russia has always won any war if that war became a people's (narodniy) war. That's how it's always been."
3/x "We will also definitely win this war, too. Both the 'hot' one and the economic one and the psychological one and the information one that's being waged against us."
1/x Why does Prigozhin keep doing things that don't make strategic sense like pouring Wagner's fighters into a 4-month-long attack on Bakhmut where the "front line has barely moved in four months of heavy fighting"? washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/…@leloveluck@RobynDixon__
2/x This bracing account of the battle for Bakhmut reveals how Wagner's actions "have eclipsed all strategic logic" and how "after a disorderly Russian retreat from nearby Izyum, the battle for Bakhmut is no longer part of any coordinated military operation."
3/x The answer lies in the highly informal & personalistic nature of Putin's regime. In theory, waging full-scale war should be the moment when all elements of national power are harnessed in support of a singular goal (victory). Prigozhin's antics show why that's not the case.
1/x Very grateful to @jdickerson for our conversation about my graphic novel about Putin, what Putin's KGB years tell us about his state of mind & why Biden's comments about Putin's nuclear blackmail and his being a "rational actor" don't tell the whole story.
2/x Biden was trying to do a bit of damage control after his comments that the world is now closer to nuclear Armageddon than any point since the Cuban Missile crisis. BUT his comments to @jaketapper are quite revealing about why the White House is still very worried.
3/x The full quotes from Biden explain how the situation in Ukraine could yet spin out of control, why Putin might get desperate enough to do something unprecedented, and why it's not acceptable for Putin to act with impunity. cnn.com/2022/10/12/pol…
1/x Couple of interesting nuggets from Putin's photo op with UAE leader MBZ that align with findings of my recent article on the Russian lovefest with Saudi Arabia and Gulf Arab states. carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/05/wha…
2/x Putin emphasizes how last week's move by OPEC Plus to cut oil production wasn't aimed at anybody when, in fact, such moves to push prices higher are potentially quite harmful to the wobbly global economy which has more than its share of inflationary headwinds.
3/x "We aren't planning anything or doing anything that would cause anyone any problems," Putin claims. Concerns about global recession and slowing Chinese demand have dampened oil prices for months, but Saudis/UAE and Russia are the only 3 states in a position to turn the tide.
2/x Personalities matter a lot. MBS and Putin revel in taunting the Biden administration. Unfortunately, the Ukraine war changed nothing.
It always pays to remember MBS's comments about Biden's complaints about the Kingdom: “Simply, I do not care.” theatlantic.com/magazine/archi…
3/x People like to point to the tectonic factors pulling Russia and the Gulf Arabs together: eg the Mideast becoming less important to US nat'l security, the pivot to Asia, drawdown from Iraq and Afghanistan, and surging U.S. oil/gas production. These are indeed real issues.