1/ #Investing, like many fields, is a blend of skill and luck. Michael Mauboussin, in his brilliant book "The Success Equation," delves deep into this intriguing intersection.
2/ Particularly in investing, as the field becomes increasingly crowded with skilled players, the role of luck intensifies.
First, consider the nature of skill in investing. It's about making informed decisions, understanding market cycles, and managing your risks well.
3/ Skilled investors do thorough research, and have sense of market cycles.
But as more people acquire these skills, playing field levels. With investors armed with info and analytical skills, the edge that skill alone provides diminishes.
1/ Charlie Munger once said, "Knowing what you don’t know is more useful than being brilliant."
This profound statement holds a wealth of wisdom, especially in our fast-paced, information-rich world.
2/ It emphasizes the value of intellectual humility.
Recognizing our limitations allows us to stay open to learning and growth, whereas believing we know everything can lead to stagnation.
3/ Understanding what we don't know helps us ask better questions. It drives curiosity and critical thinking, which are crucial in problem-solving and innovation.
The one-year period between Feb. 2015 and Feb. 2016 was a particularly bad one for the #stockmarket. The broader market fell around 20% during this period, and there were multitude of stocks that cracked 30-40%.
Howard Marks, legendary investor and Chairman of Oaktree Capital Management, described the situation in the stock market in his Feb. 2016 memo to clients thus –
In the rest of the memo, he went on to explain why Mr. Market – representative of the stock prices – has nothing valuable to offer to investors through his daily mood swings –
A martial arts student who went to an accomplished teacher to seek training under his guidance.
He asked the teacher, “I am devoted to studying your martial system. How long will it take me to master it?”
The teacher replied, “Ten years.”
The student was impatient and asked, “But what if I want to master it faster than that? I will work very hard. I will practice every day. How long will it take then?”
The teacher thought for a moment and said, “20 years.”
“Oh, and what if I train with you for ten hours every day, how many years would it take then?”
“Thirty years.”
Now, the student was aghast, and asked, “How could it be? If I am training longer and harder, my training period must be shorter, right?”
Well, if you were to believe the Roman philosopher #Seneca, life is not short but long if we know how to use it.
He wrote On the Shortness of Life - "It is not that we have a short time to live, but that we waste a lot of it." twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
"Life is long enough, and a sufficiently generous amount has been given to us for the highest achievements if it were all well invested. But when it is wasted in heedless luxury and spent on no good activity, we are forced at last by death’s final constraint..."
"...to realize that it has passed away before we knew it was passing. So it is: we are not given a short life but we make it short, and we are not ill-supplied but wasteful of it… Life is long if you know how to use it."
On the morning of 17th October 2019, I lost the first-ever reader and subscriber to my posts, my greatest motivator and my most vocal critic.
I lost my father.
When he passed away, family and friends told me that the grief would subside with time, that time would dull the pain. The pain of realizing that he isn’t there anymore – though in a way he still is – remains as strong.
Confucius said that we have two lives, and the second begins when we realize we only have one.
Papa was born in 1949, but his second life probably began in 1971 when he met “Anand”.