Thread by @siebensechser

This is part 3 of the @defichain mega thread

https://twitter.com/siebensechser/status/1601266034459127810

Today is all about the bull case for $DFI:
You get outlooks for
1. Next cyclical bull market (Q4 2023/2024 ?)
2. Moon scenario
3. Conclusion
The provided numbers are only for getting a feeling of the magnitude and are not meant as price predictions, this is not financial advice!

1. How I see the markets we will go lower in the first half of 2023 and propably bottom around end H1 after a credit event or extreme deflation that will force the Fed for a real pivot (= excess liquidity flows into risk assets again). Complete 2023 outlook drops next weeks

Its hard to predict which adoption Defichain gains until late 2023 but I am very optimistic for 3 reasons:
- 100M accelerator program
- dUSD issues solved
- DMC, @uzyn already teasing dApps/TVL

https://twitter.com/uzyn/status/1603516565386919936

• I take the assumption of U-Zyn for 75x TVL with a grain of salt for achieving it next year. I see 10x TVL for realistic goal = 4.8B For context I think BTC can do 2-4x from its lows especially when constructive legislation is in place, hopefully FTX is a catalyst for that.

With 4.8B TVL Defichain is comparable to:
• $MATIC at 7B MC (05.21) or at median 13B MC (10.21-02.22)
→ $DFI with 700M circulating supply: 10$ - 18.5$
from current price (0.5$) this means 20 - 37x

• $ATOM at 6.2B MC (12.21)
→ $DFI with 700M circulating supply: 8.8$
from current price (0.5$) this means 18x

• $AVAX at 8.5B (05.22)
→$DFI with 700M circulating supply: 12.1$
from current price (0.5$) this means 24x

2. Moon scenario
Propably in the next true bull run (2027? idk) after DFI has proven itself through the diffucult times laying ahead in the next 5 years. It is all about building trust, whilst gaining trust is a long and tiring process it can be lost within the blink of an eye...

Therefore I think it takes much more time most of us would expect to moon, on the other hand the community right now is as strong as it ever has been with long term conviction and I am confident in the years to come. Lets see how we peforme in the next winter that will be colder

• Defichain reaches same level as a legacy broker
- Robinhood 2021: 45B MC at its peak with 98B assets under management (AUM)
→ $DFI with 950M circulating supply: 47$ aka #RoadTo50
= half of peak $ADA MC = is a conservativ assumption bc Cardano is useless in comparison to DFI

- J.P. Morgan (10.2022): 380B MC , 2.5T AUM
→ $DFI with 950M circulating supply: 400$ = a bit less than half of peak $ETH MC (11.2021)

• Moon case: What if we get 1% of total Stock market onchain?
Total stock market was 90T in April 2020, 900B = 1%
→ $DFI with 950M circulating supply: 947$
check out this link for 2020 valuation of all asset classes worldwide
visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-wor…

3. Conclusion
The magnitude of @Defichain's usecase is gigantic, so if everything plays out perfectly well, than this is our ticket to financial freedom especially considering the buy prices we see atm. Pls dont FOMO in and always take profits otherwise you not gonna make it anon

Thats it for the Defichain mega thread, I had a lot of fun and learned a lot during the process. Looking forward to the 2023 macro thread next week.
Thanks again to the whole community doing the hard work, WAGMI
Thank you

@defichain Hey @julianhosp and @uzyn what do guys think about my moon case assumptions?