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https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1573472350951145472

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Ryan Selkis (d/acc) 🇺🇸

@twobitidiot

Nov 20

1/ Bitcoin Bill Hagerty is back in the mix for Treasury.

+ He knows how to sell our bonds and protect the dollar.
+ Shinzo Abe is watching over him closely.
+ And he's a pretty amazing friend to innovators.

@SenatorHagerty's greatest hits:

🧵

https://x.com/SenatorHagerty/status/1450573292335681543

2/ Before it was cool, Bill was on the crypto train without sacrificing our national security interests.

Hi first post on the subject was 2021:

https://x.com/SenatorHagerty/status/1450573292335681543

https://x.com/SenatorHagerty/status/1454241640420233218

3/ Grilling the Liz Warren CFPB head on the need to protect innovation in the crypto industry.

https://x.com/SenatorHagerty/status/1454241640420233218

Read 31 tweets

Ryan Selkis (d/acc) 🇺🇸

@twobitidiot

Nov 17

Trump's Treasury Secretary and "Team of Rivals"

One of the only disappointing points of the Trump transition process so far has been the Game of Thrones that’s emerged for the top economic job in the cabinet: Treasury Secretary.

This may be the most important cabinet nomination in U.S. history. Our reserve currency is on the line, and regardless of who gets the nod, President Trump will need a “team of rivals” to execute on his full policy vision given the complexity of our current debt situation.

The Stakes

The most important role the next Treasury Secretary will have is selling bonds. That may sound basic, but our success in rolling over our debt without major disruptions or interest rate spikes will determine whether Trump’s reform-minded cabinet navigates a soft landing for the economy, or we have a debt and currency crisis that stunts the momentum of the Trump 47 team, and sets back the America-First agenda’s long-term success.

The dollar’s reserve status is best maintained if there is a steady hand and surgeon at the helm of Treasury who can project market confidence and act as a low-key foil to Trump’s brash and zealous reform persona.

Given that federal spending is out of control, but our debt markets and export status of the dollar (cheap financing) are healthy, Treasury isn’t what needs a shake up.

Most investors tell their companies not to innovate or speculate when it comes to their balance sheets. Instead, it’s best to innovate on core products, and keep a healthy, conservative treasury. In the government’s case, that would mean modernizing defense (and ending expensive wars / forcing “allies” to pay their fair share in military alliances), making people healthier to reduce healthcare costs (MAHA), and slashing general waste (DOGE).

If a peace agenda, MAHA, and DOGE do reduce our deficits, then confidence in Treasuries will spike, and we’ll have higher demand, lower interest rates, and longer-dated debt. A Treasury that projects consistency, stability, and reliability would be the yin to the “slash and burn” yang of Trump’s other major departments.

That stands in stark contrast to today’s Treasury, where Janet Yellen is putting our deficit on a high-interest credit card, racking up expensive short-term debt to pay for record-breaking spending. The 10 year Treasury’s rate spike this fall confirmed that our bond issuances are overwhelming global demand. We’ll only reinstill confidence in our credit-worthiness through spending reform.

But if demand remains weak, we’ll have no choice but to “monetize” the debt via bond purchases by the Federal Reserve (QE). That, in turn, would lead to renewed inflation.

The Trump economic team will be tasked with fulfilling Trump’s three primary economic priorities: cutting taxes (and reforming the tax code), enforcing tariffs (fair trade agreements), and embracing crypto (modernizing our financial and tech economy). A contact who attended the AFPI event at Mar-a-Lago this past week, said that Trump himself said that taxes, tariffs, and crypto would be the three pillars of his economic agenda this term.

Sounds great!

But crypto will take a back seat quickly if we get the basics wrong in the debt markets:

The country needs an economic team that will shore up the “hard assets” in our country’s own reserves (the concept of a “bitcoin” reserve to complement our gold reserves), and will also tie tariff and defense policies to other countries’ use of the dollar as a reserve (e.g. lighter tariff terms in exchange for reserve commitments). It will be a high-wire act to get right.

The Options

(I have not met with / spoken to any of these candidates since June, when I met two in passing (one at a fundraiser, the other at a conference), so I don’t have a personal interest or deep relationship with anyone currently under consideration.)

Key Stone Group founder Scott Bessent has been the odds-on favorite to win the Treasury nod for months, and sat at a 90% favorite earlier last week on Polymarket. Bessent built his reputation as a colleague of Stan Druckenmiller’s, and left his post as George Soros’ Chief Investment Officer a decade ago, in part over political differences (important to note given the online smears tying him to Soros). He backed Trump’s 2016 campaign, and was the top fundraiser for Trump early this year. He is a believer in tariffs and Trump’s economic agenda.

I have watched hours worth of Bessent’s interviews (links below), and tried to get a feel for how receptive he would be to crypto. I tend to think that he is most likely to bring balance to crypto policy, which would be best for the industry long term, and he seems to have the right approach towards crypto: bitcoin and stablecoins and DeFi are good (think of them as “finance crypto”), and most all other crypto is also good, but is less relevant to Treasury policy (non-finance crypto).

On the other hand, I wrote yesterday that my impression was that crypto was now being used as a prop by the dark horse candidate, transition co-chair and crypto mega bull, Howard Lutnick, in order to elbow aside Bessent. My fear is that the crypto enthusiast disrupters (Vivek, RFK Jr., Elon, and members of Trump’s own family) may be riding the short-term hype train of the crypto bull markets to drive momentum for Lutnick, and setting up a risky, unintended scenario that spooks the Treasury markets.

I’m all for a strategic bitcoin reserve: it’s a good idea in a world that’s slowly de-dollarizing and moving to harder reserve assets. But crypto does not exist in a vacuum. And I worry that there are government officials in the throes of their first crypto bull market, who are neglecting the risks that come with signaling to sovereign investors that they would benefit more from piling into bitcoin-mania than snapping up our Treasuries.

We’d have no margin for error, either.

A 10% rotation from short-term Treasuries to bitcoin would be catastrophic for our interest rates, and likely lead to new inflation. And a short-term government-fueled spike followed by a massive market correction would turn crypto from the belle of the inauguration ball to a political pariah overnight.

When it comes to rolling out a Treasury x Crypto strategy, the messenger will matter, and we’ll probably want an understated systems-thinker and “boring” macro trader vs. crypto cowboy and outsized personality.

Would it be better to have a pit bull like Howard Lutnick as national economic advisor or The Tariff Guy™ responsible for aggressively negotiating all trade deals, and a technician like Scott Bessent keeping our debt train on the tracks?

The Game of Thrones

As it stands now, there are a few things to keep in mind regarding the Treasury race:

1. This was apparently a Cheney-esque power play. Lutnick allegedly only included two names on the initial list for Treasury picks: Bessent’s and Senator Bill Hagerty’s. If you wanted to eventually nominate yourself or have others back you in the late stages of the process, you’d reduce your competitive set exactly like this.

2. It’s all about location, location, location. Lutnick is at the center of the action as co-chair of the transition team. That means he’s spending a lot of time organically with Trump, with Elon, and with his other supporters at Mar-a-Lago. He’s occupying the most precious real estate in the world right now: the physical space around Trump himself.

3. Crypto is truly important in this decision. Lutnick strategically placed a Cantor Fitzgerald crypto event in Miami last week in order to attract some of the industry’s talent to South Florida. He’s got the support of the pro-crypto First Family members, Elon, and RFK Jr. himself seemed to hint at this last night. Some crypto execs and investors are personally meeting with Trump this week.

4. This could create the beginning of an early rift between Elon and Trump. I wouldn’t be surprised if Elon’s public Lutnick support ultimately back-fires as Trump asserts control and makes a statement that he’ll go with his initial instincts. He’ll either prove that he’s insusceptible to public pressure campaigns now that he has been elected, or that he’s willing to listen to a new crop of advisors when they push him.

5. It’s not over until it’s over. I am hearing that this is still Lutnick’s to lose. But apparently Bessent spoke with Elon Musk yesterday. And there’s allegedly a list of four more names that have been reintroduced after Trump expressed frustration over the power struggle. It seems to change hourly.

Bessent at Natcon. (20 minutes and solid overview of his economics worldview)

Bessent on Raoul Pal's Real Vision:

Read 4 tweets

Ryan Selkis (d/acc) 🇺🇸

@twobitidiot

Nov 8

https://twitter.com/MessariCrypto/status/1854948765410713725

1/ ELECTION POST-MORTEM:

When I beat people up on X, it was for a purpose. When I was aggressive with friends in crypto policy, it was for a purpose. When I asked this week "where are my big boy friends and thank you's?", it was for a purpose.

That purpose was to win.

🧵

https://twitter.com/MessariCrypto/status/1854948765410713725

2/ This thread is not about my insecurities. (I have none as I am perfect, happy, and always right when I go all in. Very handsome, too.) It isn't about ego.

It's an economic message: you don't owe me, but you sure as hell owe MESSARI, motherf*ckers.

And I will tell you why.

3/ This was Messari's revenue growth for the first five years of the company's life.

Until SBF screwed us all, we were cooking. And we were doing this without a token or taking a bunch of shortcuts. From Day 1 (and up until today), we never wavered in that mission.

Read 25 tweets

Ryan Selkis (d/acc) 🇺🇸

@twobitidiot

Nov 4

1/ My 47 closing arguments on why we need to make Trump the President again.

Here are the charts / HARD DATA you need to make a final decision if you are *somehow* still on the fence or disinclined from voting.

🧵

2/ I don't think most people realize how much trouble we are in if we don't reduce government spending.

For the past several years, Biden-Harris "COVID-laundered" unprecedented levels of government spending for negative ROI.

Our deficits exceeded GDP growth by $10 TRILLION.

3/ For the past three (non-emergency years), the vast majority of our GDP growth has been directly tied to public sector spending, which historically tends to be amongst the least efficient capital allocation methods.

@chamath pointed this out last week on the All-In pod.

Read 47 tweets

Ryan Selkis (d/acc) 🇺🇸

@twobitidiot

Sep 25

1/ Crypto is Anti-Democrat / Anti-Neocon.

I've been writing a bit about political theory, and crafting 2025+ plans to modernize and shrink government using modern tech.

But an important starting point is to explain WHY these ideas / technologies are inherently right wing.

🧵

2/ First, some context:

It occurred to me last week that I've been taking a major assumption for granted: the fact that the media, academia, administrative state, HR-Legalist corporate Stasi, NGO complex, and Big Tech are universally aligned with Democrats is still seen broadly as an "alt-right" conspiracy vs. emerging political reality.

The mention of the mere existence of this “Polygon” is a marker you are on the "New Right" or have been "Red pilled," but it sounds insane to outsiders who don’t fully appreciate the political realignment that has taken place since 2016.

I want to back up and try to visualize the political realignment and explain what is actually happening.

3/ The Political Realignment Matrix

To start, I'd ask you to treat the consensus view that Democrats *leadership* has moved to the Progressive Left and Republican *leadership* has moved towards Trump’s brand of MAGA Populism.

With that assumption, I’ve overlayed models from five different political analysts who share this view, in order to explain how the 2024 election has become a referendum on our *establishment institutions.*

We can build off of an in-depth Echelon Insights survey of 1,500 likely voters from May 2024 to build our initial matrix. Echelon is a political research firm that conducts a monthly online opinion survey of registered voters. Their analysis gives us a good starting point when defining the eight voting blocs that pollsters are following most closely.

Echelon's eight major voting blocs in this election:

Read 14 tweets

Ryan Selkis (d/acc) 🇺🇸

@twobitidiot

Aug 1

1/ The reason the election of Kamala Harris would legitimately be the end of the country has nothing to do with her as a person. (If I'm being honest, I would definitely have seven IPAs to her seven glasses of wine, and we'd probably hit it off.)

It's much darker than that.

2/ You have to look at the coordinated information war that has taken place in the past six weeks: the players, the sequence of events, and the outcomes.

If I were part of the "Deep State" or whoever the hell is running the country right now, I would be flexing my muscles...

3/ First, you had a sustained campaign of lawfare against Trump, which culminated in two massive civil suit losses (in Deep Blue NYC), and a sham felony conviction for fraud.

At the same time, the White House, Congress, Media, and others were covering up Biden's dementia.

Read 15 tweets

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