Alina Chan Profile picture
Dec 22 7 tweets 3 min read
It would be a huge letdown if the coming US-based #OriginOfCovid investigation does not ultimately lead to more insight into how the pandemic started.

Finding the origin requires looking into places where evidence is likely to exist, not just people who pushed a nature origin.
Finding the #OriginOfCovid is challenging enough without dealing with the sideshow of some scientists who squashed public discussion of the lab leak theory. Honestly, it would only help them to paint the investigation as anti-science if they become the focus of the investigation.
An investigation should spend as much of their efforts as possible on gathering incontrovertible #OriginOfCovid evidence.

Without that, the chances of holding people accountable for trying to rule out a lab leak prematurely are low because they will keep insisting "no evidence".
I'm not saying to not hold some scientists accountable but you can already predict the 2023 headlines depending on the strategy of the investigation, e.g., "Pandemic heroes and science under attack by GOP" or "GOP #OriginOfCovid investigation not backed by scientists".
Why not "Congressional investigation unearths key evidence for the pandemic's origin" instead of "Multi-year investigation fails to find any new evidence for the pandemic's origin"?
The latter scenario would even be seen (and reported) by many as vindication of the scientists who called a lab #OriginOfCovid a conspiracy theory because the GOP would've then conducted a full investigation and still failed to find any evidence that the virus came from a lab.
If investigators wish to vindicate the scientists who tried to shut down the lab leak theory, please focus your entire investigation on them and not actually finding evidence for the #OriginOfCovid

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More from @Ayjchan

Dec 21
The methods by which some scientists culture or isolate novel viruses from nature can accidentally adapt these viruses for primate or human infection and transmission.

You don't know what viruses are in each sample but you can encourage them to grow in cells in the lab.
In VIRAL (paperback p120), we describe an instance of this by the Wuhan Institute of Virology. After 5 passages (serial passaging) in primate cells, a pig virus finally became sufficiently adept at causing cell death.
nature.com/articles/s4158…
There are other unorthodox methods to grow a novel virus in the lab, such as injecting them directly into live animals instead of passaging in cells. This can also inadvertently select for viruses with the ability to jump from species to species.
Read 7 tweets
Dec 19
By these standards set by some virologists, there seems to be no strong evidence of a natural #OriginOfCovid and likely no way to ever prove that the virus came to people through the wildlife trade instead of research activities.

journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mB…
If you turn it around, then even if wild animals infected with the direct ancestor or close siblings of the pandemic virus were found, that would only strengthen but not prove a natural #OriginOfCovid since the Wuhan outbreak could still have been sparked by research activity.
I'm not sure what these virologists believe can be found. A video recording of scientists in Wuhan spilling a tube labeled pandemic virus, said researchers developing symptoms & the chain of transmissions leading to a superspreader event at the market - all caught on camera?
Read 5 tweets
Dec 18
New editorial from the virologists who brought us "even if the pandemic virus was being studied in a lab prior to the 2019 outbreak, it would not prove that the virus came from a lab".

journals.asm.org/doi/epub/10.11…
Their new editorial (link in opening tweet) says:

"The bulk of this attack comes under the guise of concern about gain-of-function (GOF) research and persistent concerns about the origin of SARS-CoV-2."

Please strike out "comes under the guise of".
Read 5 tweets
Dec 16
The line between biodefense and bioweapons research is very thin. Both can involve the same types of experiments.

Sometimes it looks like "biodefense" is used for friendly countries and "bioweapons" is used for non-friendly countries.
When someone says an experiment is linked to a biodefense project, it doesn't automatically mean the experiment is not dangerous.

Similarly, if an experiment is linked to a bioweapons project, it doesn't automatically mean the experiment is dangerous.
For example, are these US-approved experiments to make influenza virus more transmissible in people considered biodefense or bioweapons research?

science.org/content/articl…
Read 6 tweets
Dec 14
Is there a science journalism class where they teach reporters what to say about the scientific consensus when there is no data on what most scientists think about a hotly debated and still unfolding issue like #OriginOfCovid?
From what I can tell, when a reporter says "most scientists" or the "scientific consensus" they often seem to mean "my go-to scientist and their friends".
Under these circumstances, some scientists might be misled by their journalist friends into believing that they are the Science.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 13
On bipartisan legislation to create a Sept. 11-style panel to investigate pandemic response and #OriginOfCovid...

"the White House is privately resisting it, according to an official familiar with the measure"
nytimes.com/2022/12/12/us/…
What are the reasons for the White House to reject a bipartisan commission into #OriginOfCovid and pandemic response?

Especially since the latter largely targets the previous administration.
Part of the beauty of democracies is that you can investigate previous administrations without carrying the burden of blame.

Wrt #OriginOfCovid I can't see any particular administration being solely responsible even if it did come from a lab in Wuhan.
Read 5 tweets

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