1 day does not make a trend, but is this the start of the big one in Cocoa? The 🐿️has been 'cocoa curious' for a while and we have a hunch that we will be paying a lot more for our chocolate in years to come. We got back in on yesterday's break-out. $CC_F $NIB $CC #Cocoa 1/5
Cocoa is a fascinating market. Grown in very specific geographies where the wrong weather can be a big deal and where (until now?) the main growers have been getting a raw deal + RU/UK disruption to grain markets forces cash crop growers to pivot to subsistence crops. 2/5
Several top folk have been doing great work on Cocoa: With impeccable timing @pineconemacro's Chase produced a brilliant "Emerald" primer on the market about a month ago. Chase down a copy (see what I did there 😉); 3/5
@feridex11 Shawn Hackett at Hackett Financial Advisors has been tracking the weather (and Black pod disease) developments in West Africa closely over the past 6 months. He also sees smart money accumulation in the $CC futures; 4/5
Finally, Jacob @JacobShap and Rob of @CognitiveInvest have been on the case and discussed and written about Cocoa extensively (especially covering the fascinating geopolitical angles here). End.
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(Another) great show from @JackFarley96. This time with @bilalhafeez123 of @Macro_Hive. Delighted that they dedicated the first half of the show to Bilal's grey swan idea around the implosion of private asset markets in 2023 1/?
We have been super focused on this theme here in the burrow. The trouble is, how to play it? Remember these guys? They spotted the issue with sub-prime, bought the CDSs and were almost carried out while they waited (plenty actually were!) 2/8
The obvious trade would be to take a dark side position in the private equity shops. In this episode of @ForwardGuidance Jack even puts on a suit to interview PE Titan, Caryle's David Rubenstein. A few comments really jumped out.... 3/8