Thread by @wartranslated

Day 303, December 23rd. Summary of #Arestovych and #Feygin daily broadcast, kindly brought to you by Atis: @savaadaak

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THREAD

🔥 Battlefield update:
🔥 Kherson: shelling, civilians getting killed
🔥 Vuhledar: battles
🔥 Soledar, Bakhmut: battles.

Rumors of 🇺🇦 Ukraine pushing 🇷🇺 back even more from Bakhmut.
🔥 Nyzhnia Duvanka-Kreminna: the same fuss, as before
Overall no significant changes, not much happening operationally, but bloody tactical battles.

Many solders dying near Bakhmut, but 🇷🇺 losses are approximately 7 times higher.

🔥 Melitopol explosion:
Several FSB employees killed and local collaborator policemen wounded.

There are 4 things that affect morale and mental state during war: 1) unexpected artillery shelling 2) mine risk 3) sudden destruction of your post while you were away 4) explosions in seemingly peaceful cities

🔥 Belarus:

Information published on attacks being prepared from 🇧🇾 Belarus. 🇧🇾 Belarus group is not ready for attacks, but they will be used to create psychological pressure. Likely scaremongering will be combined with air strikes, to disrupt Christmas and New Year celebrations.

There are 11k troops in various training grounds around 🇧🇾 Belarus, not in single united group, they are slowly getting tanks and reinforcements. There are several dozen to hundred of Wagner mercenaries.

It’s possible that 🇷🇺 will create provocations, possibly enter, attack and bounce, probing northern border, creating illusion of larger attack, fixing 🇺🇦 Ukrainian forces.

In some extreme case, it’s possible that 🇷🇺 would throw all of those forces to get killed, just to keep 🇺🇦 forces busy, instead of being deployed to East. 🇺🇦 Ukraine has created various engineering and defensive solutions.

Even attacking force is less – barely 10 BTGs of novice draftees, compared to 17 elite BTGs on 24th of February. There is nothing, that could reach Kyiv again.

🔥 Iran:
🇮🇱 Israel reports that 🇮🇷 Iran is planning to expand supplies to 🇷🇺, as well as work on uranium enrichment.

Unlikely 🇮🇱 Israel would start a war, to decrease supplies to 🇷🇺. 🇺🇦 Ukraine getting Patriot air defense, is possibly a result of 🇮🇷 Iran supplying ballistic missiles to 🇷🇺, Patriot’s first use is intercepting ballistic missiles.

🔥 Rogozin:

Various rumors and news, but nothing important to pay attention.

🔥 Artillery and aviation:
Washington Post: 🇺🇸U.S. can manufacture the same amount of 155mm artillery shells, that 🇺🇦 are spending in just two days. If this was true, 🇺🇦 Ukraine would be long out of ammo.

🇺🇦 Ukraine is using more shells than NATO would, but it’s due to NATO main force being aviation.
🇺🇦 Ukraine is also getting JDAM conversion kits, that can convert existing 250kg or 500kg bombs into smart bombs with accuracy 10m.

A 500kg bomb leaves crater with 5m depth and 10-15m width. Those bombs should be controllable and launched 20km away from target. There are no targets that would survive such bombs. This would be game-changing, comparable to HIMARS, if 🇺🇦 Ukraine manages to convert enough bombs.

Quantity of supplied kits is unknown.

🔥 Putin visits weapons factory:
Aim to show care for needs of solders, and his physical fitness. Rumors of his doppelganger doing visit.

🔥 Psychological assistance program:

🇺🇦 starting program to provide psychological assistance to it’s solders. For PTSD it’s much easier to provide preventive training, than to work with consequences. Preparations are done as part of regular training, proper training decreases PTSD cases by 70%.

Government should provide psychological assistance to any solder or policemen, showing how to notice symptoms in themselves and colleagues. Post-war traumas are felt for decades, even generations.

For example after WW2, structure of marriage changed in USSR countries, it’s still being felt 70 years later. Traumas can be decreased with proper treatment, but the amount of psychologists needed is going to be huge.

🔥 U.N. Security Council:

🇪🇺 Charles Michel suggests creating mechanism to remove 🇷🇺 from 🇺🇳U.N. Security council. Start of discussion is quite significant and can be compared to 🇺🇦 Ukraine getting Patriot air defense, which it previously was denied.

🔥 U.S. proposal to label russia as aggressor:

Instead of labeling as terrorist, a workaround proposal to label 🇷🇺 as aggressor. Label of terrorist would require 🇺🇸 U.S. to start immediate financial monitoring, sanctions and limit ability for any country to work with 🇷🇺.

All 🇺🇸U.S. economic would be focused on limiting 🇮🇳 India and 🇨🇳 China deals with 🇷🇺. 🇺🇸 U.S. does not want this confrontation, thus label of aggressor would be used for first time, there are no predefined actions, they can be added slowly.

🔥 Weapons and financial aid:

🇷🇺 ambassador Antonov: 🇺🇸U.S. is waging war against 🇷🇺 , risking direct clash. 🇷🇺 rhetoric is high, because 🇺🇸 U.S. is making decisions on $44 bn assistance, including $24 bn military assistance. There is going to be a series of very pleasant surprises.

Likely 🇷🇺 is already informed, thus the rhetoric, as they can’t do anything else.
G7 commits to $32 bn assistance in 2023.

🇷🇺 dreams for pushing 🇺🇦 Ukraine into a dead-end, stable front-line, as before 24th February. 1.2 million solders (combined army and other structures), with ability to increase will not allow positional war, even if western assistance ceases.

Already approved assistance guarantees victory at minimum.

🔥 Saakashvili:
A letter and toxicology report by David E. Smith MD, & Associates stating that Saakashvili was poisoned [t.me/MarkFeygin/2954].

Human rights are not an internal matter, and have international prerogative. It would be very bad for 🇬🇪 Georgian government for Saakashvili to die in prison, it would cause international response. To avoid unnecessary death, Arestovych personally is prepared to vouch for him.

End of thread.