Robert Profile picture
Dec 26 4 tweets 2 min read
RE is problematic. much money is tied up there. much is financed. Real Estate takes a big chunk out of household expenses.

RE is priced now like New Economy in 1999. Expected yield is 1-2%. lol. PE of 40-50. We going Japan. 30-40Y NOTHING. table with real rates.
RE has the same mathematics EVERYWHERE. Longterm RE CANT grow/yield higher then REAL INCOME of the ppl. Central banks let this happen. RE is burned next for many y.

OR we get a big crash. BOTH is bad. #jail @lagarde

disposable income, profits, economy. RE hits everything
millions of ppl get burned in RE bubbles.

You buy a house on utopia valuations. finance with 1%. and 10Y-15Y later you get to refinance it with 3-5%-7% rates. You know what happens to the finances of this ppl ? their disposable income ? the economy ? RE is long bloody cycles.
the crash. only benefits new buyers. existing buyers. will get destroyed. the RE they cherished. will be worth less 20-30-50%.

millions of ppl will spend way less for decades. that happened in Japan, Germany. etc. / whole economy hurts. gets slowed. Banks get messed up etc.

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