Brentford's expected threat (xT) via pass, with the player in each zone being the top xT player in that zone, and all the players' total xT via pass in the table to the right.
Tottenham's expected threat (xT) via pass, with the player in each zone being the top xT player in that zone, and all the players' total xT via pass in the table to the right.
Brentford's main passing flows. Each arrow represents at least 3 completed passes from the arrow's origin zone to the arrowhead's zone.
A darker color indicates more passes
Tottenham's main passing flows. Each arrow represents at least 3 completed passes from the arrow's origin zone to the arrowhead's zone.
A darker color indicates more passes
Expected Threat (xT) from passes, zone control.
Areas shaded in a team's color means they had more xT from passes in that zone
And Spurs' starting defenders' average territories when passing
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A quick thread showing why even the best xG models can be "broken" by any player, especially in the short term
🚨 Variance! 🚨
So, let's look at some coin clipping 🪙 A fair coin is perfectly 50-50, heads-tails.
But even over 100 flips, you aren't guaranteed 50 heads!
🧵
xG can be thought of as the probability of any given shot going in.
So if a shot has an xG of 0.10, we can think of that as the average player scores that exact shot 10% of the time.
A coin flip would have an "xH" (expected heads) of 0.50: 50% of the time, it's heads
I'll use Python to make sure all my coin flips are perfectly "fair", i.e., perfectly 50-50. Because the coins I own might be worn more on one side causing them to be "unfair"!
Also for time, I don't want to flip a coin thousands of time
I really feel like Russia & UEFA are done. Politically speaking, I cannot see the UEFA nations, esp. those with the most clout, being happy with Russia resuming anytime soon
Competitively speaking, the AFC isn't as strong as UEFA & Russia likely becomes one of the main nations
The nations around them that Russia would join (Central & Western Asia) are both growing their talent. Adding in regular games vs Russia would help them for sure.
But this also doesn't mean Russia's guaranteed a spot at each World Cup either
Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Japan, Australia, & Iran were the 5 AFC teams that qualified through qualifiers.
6 was Qatar, pretend Russia joins this group as the "top 7" in AFC
that leaves 2 spots left for AFC in 2026.
Iraq, UAE, Oman, are the next-best ranked AFC sides...
Tried this AI on the relatively very small field of research I did in my PhD program.
Was not expecting it to find the seminal papers if I'm being honest. The 1st result is THE seminal work, and the summary of the top 4, while ***incredibly*** basic, is accurate
As you go past the top 5, I was also expecting to see stuff that's irrelevant.
But below the top 5 is really where the best papers are. Tons from all of the big names in the field from both a more empirical side and a mathematical modelling side (the 2 main silos in the field)
Would not recommend ANYONE use these results as the be all end all for your lit review, but even in a relatively small field (which I expected the AI to know less abt than many others), a basic question comes back with quite a good selection of papers
Yeah, Kolo Muani made this penalty but isn't the point of the thread (and the others he makes) all about viewing the penalties as a whole, more on the win/loss record than an individual score/miss for 1 penalty?
Dibu has an incredible record on both individual pens & shootouts
so wouldn't his unique style of disruption play a role?
Again, looking at the broader aspect b/c I think I read recently he hasn't lost a shootout. Dibu seems to be able to lower the scoring rate of penalties against him
Variance is a thing when you look at 1 event in isolation