How do Russia’s and Ukraine’s strategies differ? UkraineWorld spoke to Valentyn Badrak, director of the Center for Army, Conversion, and Disarmament Studies. Key points – in our brief, #UkraineWorldAnalysis: 1/10
Putin began preparing for war in 2003-2004. This happened after the failure of the Tuzla operation in 2003. In May 2002, Yevhen Marchuk, who was the secretary of the NSDC, noted that Ukraine aspired to full Euro-Atlantic integration. 2/10
Ukrainian President Kuchma had a problem: he had become a political pariah because of a scandal over 12 🇺🇦 long-range surface-to-air missiles being sent to Iran, the Melnichenko tapes, and more. Many people from his entourage were determined to whitewash his reputation. 3/10
The Russians successfully took advantage of this and Putin's friend Medvedchuk entered Kuchma's entourage. Then there was the harmful campaign for the "Russian World in Donbas". Putin decided to weaken Ukraine through the formation of agent networks. 4/10
In 2008, when NATO refused to grant Ukraine a MAP, Russia began to prepare for a future war. One of the first steps was the State Duma’s adoption of a law on the use of the Russian Armed Forces outside Russian territory in the fall of 2009. 5/10
Ukraine's special forces have had a powerful effect on the enemy's morale. The 10th Detachment of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, the Marines of the Naval Forces, and certainly Ukraine’s air assault forces have led successful operations. 6/10
Ukraine’s military has begun to successfully apply a so-called mosquito strategy, when compact high-tech weapons are used en masse during maneuver defense. This was the case of the anti-tank missile complexes like Javelin, which helped to destroy enemy columns. 7/10
The Ukrainian army carried out the world's first naval drone operation and attacked valuable, large Russian warships. After this war, the armies of the world will look closely at all sorts of unmanned platforms, like unmanned aviation and ground robotic complexes. 8/10
The West realized that Ukraine was capable of winning by April, because Putin was in a hurry to end the war by May 9, but it turned out that in March they had to withdraw from Kyiv and Chernihiv Oblasts. 9/10
The West realized that it was necessary to support Ukraine more, and so it began transferring heavy artillery. Enduring faith in Ukrainian victory was demonstrated by the transfer of the HIMARS, High Mobility Artillery Rocket System. 10/10
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To date, the Western weapons received by Ukraine after the full-scale invasion is less than 50% of the country’s arsenal. This indicates that Ukraine’s defenders are still fighting mostly with Soviet weapons which were inherited from the time of Ukrainian independence. 2/13
It is a matter of keeping this entire arsenal in combat-ready condition. Many have the impression that creating a new combat unit is more difficult than repairing a damaged one. In fact, everything is the other way around. 3/13
What is the state of western support of Ukraine? UkraineWorld spoke to Oleksandr Khara, expert at the Center for Defense Strategies. Key points – in our brief, #UkraineWorldAnalysis: 1/14
If we take into account how much the Europeans are allocating relative to their GDP, the support is tremendous. 2/14
A certain evolution in thinking has taken place among Ukraine’s Western allies: at the beginning of the large-scale invasion, we were supplied with high-tech weapons for a completely different type of war: for special services and guerrilla warfare. 3/14
What is Belarus’s policy on the Russo-Ukrainian war?
UkraineWorld spoke to Ihor Tyshkevich. expert at the Ukrainian Institute of the Future. Key points – in our brief, #UkraineWorldAnalysis: 1/14
Military forces on the 🇺🇦 side are not enough for an offensive, but probably enough for defense. On the 🇧🇾 side, they do not have enough for offensive actions. At this point and in the coming months, there is no possibility and no means for an invasion by Belarusian troops. 2/14
Belarus has fallen almost simultaneously with Russia under EU sanctions, now on a 9th package. Sanctions have been in force since 2020, so the decline of the Belarusian economy in 2022 was predicted to be around 7.5% per year. 3/14
What is the state of the Ukrainian book publishing sector during wartime? UkraineWorld spoke to Oleksandra Koval, Director of the Ukrainian Book Institute. Key points – in our brief, #UkraineWorldAnalysis: 1/11
The war has led to an up to 50% drop in demand and production compared to the previous year. This indicator does not even include textbooks for high school publication. 2/11
Before the war, they made up more than 40% of the total circulation, but not a single textbook was published in 2022. The reason is the lack of funds in the state budget to pay publishers and distribute the books to schools. 3/11
Russian propaganda has been creating a fake reality where "the West is freezing" without Russian energy. #InfoWatch#AgainstRussianLies
Threats and narratives about "Ukraine and the West depending on Russian oil and gas" have been used in Russian propaganda for years to convince that Russia is a powerful country that graciously supplies the whole world with oil and gas.
After the adoption of new sanctions packages Russia resurrected this narrative to convince that Europe "will suffer from sanctions and freeze without Russian energy".
What is behind the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate)? We spoke to Archimandrite Cyril Hovorun, Professor in Ecclesiology, International Relations and Ecumenism at the Sankt Ignatios College, University College Stockholm. Key points👇#UkraineWorldAnalysis: 1/13
There are disagreements between the believers and clergy in this church who support Ukraine on the one hand, and the episcopate, which is dominated by passive or active sympathy for the "Russian world". 2/13
There are also Ukrainian patriots among the bishops of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church who are against the Russian Orthodox Church's support for the war, but they do not constitute a majority. 3/13