The Wizard Of Ops Profile picture
Dec 28 10 tweets 3 min read
Good Morning! I was going to do today's morning tweet on $TSLA, as it has shed roughly 74% from its ATH over the past year. When will it stop? Kevin already did some analysis but wanted to shed a little more light.
First, that $100 positive vanna would be attractive to price, not repelling. They are also short puts for dealers, so there has been constant hedging on $TSLA all the way down. #volland changes on $TSLA every day, it is a very active stock. But I'll sum up here quickly.
This move in $TSLA is clearly not dealer hedging related. It reeks of margin calls, amd as @Forbes reported a while ago, $TSLA margin loans are collateralized at a 5-1 ratio. forbes.com/sites/johnhyat…
Musk has been selling $TSLA until recently when he tweeted he was done selling. I responded to that tweet that if $TSLA drops any more, he won't have much choice. I think we have been there. This might be the financial capitulation of Musk and $TSLA we feared.
There are also reports Twitter is now collateralized with $TSLA shares, primarily because banks can't find investors for Twitter debt. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
This all points to major margin calls, perhaps on Musk himself. I haven't poured over his SEC filings, maybe one of my followers has to perhaps calculate when the knife stops falling from Musk himself, but his fall from grace has been swift.
So to answer the question, when will the $TSLA knife stop falling, and when it does, what will happen? Options show customer hedging constantly, with IV at its highest level ever, which is saying something for $TSLA. The positive vanna shows a flat distribution...
So basically when $TSLA does stop dropping and IV drops instead, we will see a massive bounce. It won't get $TSLA back to $400, that ship has sailed, but back to $150-$160 area would be the target right now and from these levels, a 50% pop is not a bad haul.
As it turns out, $TSLA has turned out to be the largest $GME meme stock ever. It held its levels and rise because it is a healthier (sort of) company than $GME or $AMC and it was perpetuated by Musk himself masterfully.
But in the end, it is a meme filled with bad debt and collateralized with worse debt. But that doesn't mean it won't have a few face-ripping rallies along the way, and we might be due for one soon back up to the $150 level. Not investment advice... obviously.

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More from @WizOfOps

Dec 30
Good Morning! Today is the last trading day of 2022, and good riddance. It has been a difficult year. Going into 2023 there are plenty of risks and opportunities that are at the fore, but typically the ones that are not accounted for are the most dangerous. Which would those be?
Inflation and the FOMC are valid concerns, but they are accounted for. The FOMC does a decent job communicating its intent to revalue equities while crushing demand to crush labor supply-driven inflation. While there are disconnects, they aren't my greatest macro concern.
Geopolitics are a concern, as Russia and Ukraine continue fighting and there is constant sabre rattling from China to Taiwan. I do believe at some point China will attempt to invade Taiwan, but the mobilization for that will telegraph when. Meanwhile...
Read 9 tweets
Dec 29
Good Morning! The Drunk Santa Rally continues, as equities stumbled yesterday. 4000 $SPX remains a decent resistance according to #volland until January, but the strong vanna at 4100 can help it get overtaken, and if it does, it would be a nice breakout.
Now that the Santa rally timeframe is over, the call for a drunk Santa rally seemed to be correct. There were times of uptick, but we ended up going nowhere in the end. January will be dictated by CPI on 13Jan, but the big March hedges to the downside are strong.
January favors slight upside, particularly if we cross 4000 before opex. March positive vanna can cause a decent drag if IV boosts up, and once January expires, it will have a very strong effect that can cause some more market volatility.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 4
Good Morning! An interesting day yesterday as a vanna spike at 3950 was pulled down from a very strong dollar. It was like a game of tug of war that the dollar sort of won. Macro bros still have a lot to say today with jobs data and rumored Chinese pivot regarding Covid.
Talking about a Chinese pivot first because it is easy. If that happens, I would expect a very strong bullish surge. It doesn't solve all of our problems here, but will produce a surge in demand. That surge will also hurt inflation, however. So it would be short term bullish..
But tougher long term economic impact as commodities increase in cost, energy prices increase, and worldwide demand increases. That can make inflation worse.

As for jobs, I was shocked to see in #volland that it was dramtically underhedged. The straddle price for today is $55,
Read 7 tweets
Nov 3
📢 @Tradytics & Wizard of Ops announce a bundle discount!
Use code TRADYVOL35 on both platforms (#Volland & Tradytics premium) for $35 off the combined subscription.
Volland: vol.land
Tradytics: tradytics.com
This partnership made sense. We are two data-backed platforms that bring edge to investors. #volland is a novel, accurate approach to dealer hedging, @tradytics has a whole menu of indicators.
In other news, #volland will be releasing a summary page doing all the gamma, vanna, and charm dealer notional calculations for you! This will be next week.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 3
Good Morning! Saw quite a bit of chatter about how $VIX understood yesterday's move, but ultimately remember that VIX is a measure of premiums on $SPX. If dealers are fine between 3750 and 3950, there is no liquidity problem. Toss in disappearing event vol, and the $VIX is fine.
This is clearly shown in the premarket. $ES drops 20 points, and $VIX is up a normal .56 points. As I said, 3750 is a big number here; that's where all the hedging is this week and into March. If this premarket drop sees continuation, today could get ugly. Break 3700...
things get really ugly. It can also most certainly happen since macro bros are still reeling from JPow's presser. None of it surprised me at all except that JPow suggested that if something breaks, they have the tools to fix it. I hate to break this to you JPow...
Read 8 tweets
Nov 2
Good Morning! Today is FOMC day, where it seems everyone knows what is going to happen, yet are caught off guard by it anyway. how are dealers and customers positioned? Lets consult #volland.

The overall DAG in $SPY and $SPX is mixed, and have very little push except...
$SPY gets dicey below 376. On the upside in the short term we would see strength in $SPX past 3950. That seems to be the acceleration point, but also a major balance point for vanna. 3950 is the big number, and unless FOMC surprises would be my target for the week. #volland
The customer positioning is typical, with calls (primarily at 3950) and puts (between 3750-3850) bought, but ATM puts are sold in $SPX. The put #volland chart is shown below for the week. This is interesting, as it is a bet that premiums are too high for the movement we will see.
Read 4 tweets

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