Good Morning! The Drunk Santa Rally continues, as equities stumbled yesterday. 4000 $SPX remains a decent resistance according to #volland until January, but the strong vanna at 4100 can help it get overtaken, and if it does, it would be a nice breakout.
Now that the Santa rally timeframe is over, the call for a drunk Santa rally seemed to be correct. There were times of uptick, but we ended up going nowhere in the end. January will be dictated by CPI on 13Jan, but the big March hedges to the downside are strong.
January favors slight upside, particularly if we cross 4000 before opex. March positive vanna can cause a decent drag if IV boosts up, and once January expires, it will have a very strong effect that can cause some more market volatility.
For now, IV changes will continue to have an outsized effect over the next month or so.
I have been reading a lot of speculation about the recession. I'll give my view tomorrow looking ahead at 2023, and look at the year in review on Saturday, both personally and for markets.
I have been reading a lot of speculation about the recession. I'll give my view tomorrow looking ahead at 2023, and look at the year in review on Saturday, both personally and for markets.
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