Trading is hard work. Trying to guess which way a market will go tomorrow or next week won't get you very far.
So let's start with goal setting. How much would you have to make each day to take home $100,000? Math below.
It's about $500/day - booked - not paper gains.
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Now consider capital efficiency. You won't get there buying expensive stocks/indices. So if you want to watch your $500 come in each day, you've got to work each day and book those profits. No duh.
You need a little leverage (not too much) ... a little convexity ... and
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... a little luck.
One way: repeat *one way* to do this is to trade basic options, going with the flow ... keeping position size on the low side.
I've shared this study before. Copying it will help you understand it. Dupe and change calls to puts (for bad hair days).
30 mins after tweeting this, I'm concerned about its interpretation.
The points I wanted to make:
1) you need a goal (eg. $100k), 2) you'll have to work hard to hit that (on ave booking ~$500/day) 3) and small position sizes in basic options on $SPY is *one* way.
Still hard.
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1/n The Efficient Market Hypothesis states that it is impossible to accurately predict stock price movement. Staying attuned to dominant market forces and responding in measure, however, is smart.
Here's the popular explanation for how cross-correlations go ...
2/ A hawkish Fed pushes up rates to curb inflation. Higher yields attracts foreign money which strengthens the dollar but creates economic headwinds at home. As long as the economy *appears* strong, monetary tightening is assured ... which further supports dollar appreciation.
3/ If, however, signs of inflation easing appear, then the Fed slows its rate rises. Check.
But.
A strong dollar ultimately has negative effects on corporate profits, and in turn, stocks and commodities.
As dollar strength builds and margin compression in
On the equities side, at 15:45 - a scan for high buying volume + high market cap. Results below. Read for themes.
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Below, a screenshot of my trading account's portfolio. I'm showing this merely to show that my posts almost always reflect my book. (Not advice.) Moreover, this is the portfolio whose returns I'm going to meticulously rebalance and reconstitute on a weekly basis.
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I also think that, for those new to trading, it might help to see how the portfolio is arranged ... referring to the subcategories.
Half of the portfolio is allocated to vanilla bonds ... IG corporates ... good companies ... spitting out an average 6% in coupons.
1/ Companion Piece to @SqueezeMetrics' DIX Spike in Negative Gamma Territory:
First, a couple of key introductory points:
1. If there’s any directional impact in options positioning in the S&P 500 … it arises from near-term regular ...
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expirations ... this despite the plethora of 0-2 DTE trading accounting for ~45% of total transactions.
2. Gamma is negative. But gamma is not directional; it's an accelerant, amplifying price moves in *either* direction.
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In Friday's SPX options data, there appears to be bullish speculation ... conspicuous in Dec quarterlys and Jan and Feb monthlys. I've discussed upside and downside targets, referencing the auction market process.
While hedging for the downside, institutional traders ...
For the past wk, I've been evaluating an overabundance of indicators, studies, and data-based models... in an effort to pare that number down to the few exhibiting the greatest predictive value.
At this writing, they are:
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Dec 1 GEX-RVOL Ratio
This ratio has been statistically shown to forecast 1-month ahead returns (negative for peaks, positive for troughs).
4:25PM Wed Dec 14 1/3 A Review of Indicators and Data Posted Ahead of FOMC
Bearish Tweets
√ 4.5% drop in TRF market share
√ Record outflows in equity mutual funds
√ TD Line disqualification + completed TD Countdown
√ EOD scan for ETF buys (inverses)
√ GEX-RVOL ratio
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√ Overwriting ITM calls
√ Auction market retest of structural risk level (rejected), followed by “… a market that wants to go up”
Confusing Tweets 1. Inadequate discussion of the disproportionately large dollar volume in puts marked at the bid.
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2. Inadequate discussion of the relentless accumulation of stocks by dark pools and retail.
Summary
Translating SPX order flows into sentiment remains fiendishly complex.
Preventive precision medicine is an emerging field of healthcare that takes into account individual differences in genetic risk along with the epigenetic events that drive their expression … namely nutritional factors, gut microbiota, and other environmental exposures.
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After 30 years as a reconstructive plastic surgeon, I found fulfillment in an encore career ... precision medicine ... and set up a concierge practice in 2015.
While most of my work with patients evolved around reducing chronic disease risk ... patients consistently enjoyed
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learning about their innate ability to control emotions. Much of that medical research comes under the heading "Neuroeconomics."
Trading is stressful and one's genetic constitution greatly impacts how one makes decisions under uncertainty and when the stakes are high.