1/3

Trading is hard work. Trying to guess which way a market will go tomorrow or next week won't get you very far.

So let's start with goal setting. How much would you have to make each day to take home $100,000? Math below.

It's about $500/day - booked - not paper gains.
2/3

Now consider capital efficiency. You won't get there buying expensive stocks/indices. So if you want to watch your $500 come in each day, you've got to work each day and book those profits. No duh.

You need a little leverage (not too much) ... a little convexity ... and
3/3

... a little luck.

One way: repeat *one way* to do this is to trade basic options, going with the flow ... keeping position size on the low side.

I've shared this study before. Copying it will help you understand it. Dupe and change calls to puts (for bad hair days).
30 mins after tweeting this, I'm concerned about its interpretation.

The points I wanted to make:

1) you need a goal (eg. $100k),
2) you'll have to work hard to hit that (on ave booking ~$500/day)
3) and small position sizes in basic options on $SPY is *one* way.

Still hard.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with nextSignals

nextSignals Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @stephenharlinmd

Dec 26
1/n
The Efficient Market Hypothesis states that it is impossible to accurately predict stock price movement. Staying attuned to dominant market forces and responding in measure, however, is smart.

Here's the popular explanation for how cross-correlations go ...
2/
A hawkish Fed pushes up rates to curb inflation. Higher yields attracts foreign money which strengthens the dollar but creates economic headwinds at home. As long as the economy *appears* strong, monetary tightening is assured ... which further supports dollar appreciation.
3/
If, however, signs of inflation easing appear, then the Fed slows its rate rises. Check.

But.

A strong dollar ultimately has negative effects on corporate profits, and in turn, stocks and commodities.

As dollar strength builds and margin compression in
Read 5 tweets
Dec 18
We are portfolio building. I previously posted the bond ETFs that had the highest investor inflows (institutional + retail) in our .db.


On the equities side, at 15:45 - a scan for high buying volume + high market cap. Results below. Read for themes.
ADDENDUM
1/3

Below, a screenshot of my trading account's portfolio. I'm showing this merely to show that my posts almost always reflect my book. (Not advice.) Moreover, this is the portfolio whose returns I'm going to meticulously rebalance and reconstitute on a weekly basis.
2/3

I also think that, for those new to trading, it might help to see how the portfolio is arranged ... referring to the subcategories.

Half of the portfolio is allocated to vanilla bonds ... IG corporates ... good companies ... spitting out an average 6% in coupons.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 17
1/
Companion Piece to @SqueezeMetrics' DIX Spike in Negative Gamma Territory:

First, a couple of key introductory points:

1. If there’s any directional impact in options positioning in the S&P 500 … it arises from near-term regular ...
2/

expirations ... this despite the plethora of 0-2 DTE trading accounting for ~45% of total transactions.

2. Gamma is negative. But gamma is not directional; it's an accelerant, amplifying price moves in *either* direction.
3/

In Friday's SPX options data, there appears to be bullish speculation ... conspicuous in Dec quarterlys and Jan and Feb monthlys. I've discussed upside and downside targets, referencing the auction market process.

While hedging for the downside, institutional traders ...
Read 5 tweets
Dec 16
[11:00 AM Fri Dec 16]
1/

What's got predictive value?

For the past wk, I've been evaluating an overabundance of indicators, studies, and data-based models... in an effort to pare that number down to the few exhibiting the greatest predictive value.

At this writing, they are:
2/

Dec 1 GEX-RVOL Ratio

This ratio has been statistically shown to forecast 1-month ahead returns (negative for peaks, positive for troughs).

Spike peaks recurred on Dec 11 and Dec 12



3/

Dec 4 Modified Currency Formula (a modification of one of several versions created and openly shared by @frankoz95967943)🙏

This was the second earliest anticipatory signal out of 15 models ... and has exhibited outstanding performance all year.

Read 8 tweets
Dec 14
4:25PM Wed Dec 14
1/3
A Review of Indicators and Data Posted Ahead of FOMC

Bearish Tweets

√ 4.5% drop in TRF market share
√ Record outflows in equity mutual funds
√ TD Line disqualification + completed TD Countdown
√ EOD scan for ETF buys (inverses)
√ GEX-RVOL ratio Image
2/3

√ Overwriting ITM calls
√ Auction market retest of structural risk level (rejected), followed by “… a market that wants to go up”

Confusing Tweets
1. Inadequate discussion of the disproportionately large dollar volume in puts marked at the bid.
3/3

2. Inadequate discussion of the relentless accumulation of stocks by dark pools and retail.

Summary

Translating SPX order flows into sentiment remains fiendishly complex.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 11
1/n

Preventive precision medicine is an emerging field of healthcare that takes into account individual differences in genetic risk along with the epigenetic events that drive their expression … namely nutritional factors, gut microbiota, and other environmental exposures.
2/

After 30 years as a reconstructive plastic surgeon, I found fulfillment in an encore career ... precision medicine ... and set up a concierge practice in 2015.

While most of my work with patients evolved around reducing chronic disease risk ... patients consistently enjoyed
3/

learning about their innate ability to control emotions. Much of that medical research comes under the heading "Neuroeconomics."

Trading is stressful and one's genetic constitution greatly impacts how one makes decisions under uncertainty and when the stakes are high.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(