Thread by @oriolesreview

🧵A trade involving #Marlins pitchers and #Orioles hitters still makes sense. No idea what talks have been had, but MIA is reportedly open to trading Edward Cabrera, and he’s a great fit for BAL. Here are some scenarios, starting with a simple swap: Cabrera for Jordan Westburg

Some caveats: Baseball Trade Values is a useful way-finding tool, but it is flawed and often does not understand the market’s perspective on a player. I’m using it as a reference here and adding commentary when I think it misses the mark.

I think BTV’s valuation of Cabrera is a tad conservative. Command and durability do create reliever risk, but many evaluators will see the stuff, the size and the 2022 step forward and dream of a #2 with 6 years of control. That’s extremely valuable.

Westburg, on the other hand, represents a higher floor and lower ceiling. It’s hard not to see him as at least a second-divison starter. His upside is a 3-4 win fringe-All Star type. Depends on what you value.

Ok, next scenario. #Orioles get Edward Cabrera; #Marlins get IF Ramon Urias and OF Kyle Stowers. This is probably closer to fair value, and I think MIA would like the ability to plug two holes in the 2023 lineup.

With Segura, MIA might be done looking for infielders. Next scenario: #Orioles get Cabrera; #Marlins get OFs Anthony Santander and Jud Fabian. BTV is low on Santander, but this gives MIA a power bat now and a potential starting CF soon with an intriguing power/defense profile.

Last up, #Orioles get Cabrera; #Marlins get OFs Austin Hays and Jud Fabian. While BTV undervalues Santander, it probably overvalues Hays. But MIA might prefer the extra year of control and defensive value.

MIA is likely open to trading Cabrera because they think they can maximize his value while keeping their rotation intact. They might hang up the phone in all these scenarios. My hunch is that BAL would need to add one more piece to most if not all of these proposals.

But between Santander, Hays, Stowers, Urias, Westburg, Mateo, Vavra, Norby, and Fabian it seems very possible to find a deal that sends Cabrera from the #Marlins to #Orioles that is fair for both sides. What do you think?