The Bucs now have the lowest percentage of play-action dropbacks in the NFL. BUT, they average almost 2 more YPA on PA than non PA. Only 6 teams better in the NFL.
Brady remains one of PFF's top graded QBs on PA passes. But no QB doing it less.
The Bucs are one of the worst offenses by EPA in the NFL this season, except when they go no-huddle. In those situations, they have one of the highest EPA/play in the NFL. It's basically the only time they've looked like a group of real NFL players on a field together this season
Despite this, they rarely go to no-huddle until they need Brady to save them from the hole they've dug themselves in all game. Pretty much how they've acquired 4-5 of their wins this season
That's not actually a formula for victory, that's just complete offensive incompetence and a defense that keeps you in games against mostly bad offenses until Brady can save you as a play caller and QB.
Lastly, the Bucs continue to try to spam the run on first down, despite being the worst rushing team in the NFL.
Despite all their issues, they are 8th in EPA/dropback on 1st down this season. They are 31st in EPA/rush on 1st down this season.
On Sunday, in neutral spots they ran on 11 first downs and threw on 10.
After the start of the 4th quarter, and after scoring their only 10 points in 2 min situations at end of 1H, #Bucs threw on 8 of 10 first downs in the 4th. Scored 20 points and saved their season.
The 11 to 10 split was through 3 quarters, to be more clear
Sunday splits, as they always do, show how much better Bucs are on early down passes than runs.
Despite the overwhelming evidence that play action, no huddle and high first down pass rate are game changing tools for Bucs, they refuse to change the way they approach any of those things. To me, there is no greater sign of coaching incompetence.
I'll be posting some positive Bucs things as I review tape and I'll have some positive comments on the pod this week too. But I think it's important for Bucs fans to know that despite 30 points, the approach was the same. Don't get fooled there.
But the players...some hope!
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Not getting into the he-said, she-said with the AB and Arians thing. Not surprised by the way either have addressed the situation so far. Pretty on-brand on both sides.
But here is what I will say: Arians and Bucs staff have been very careful with injuries. And very careful especially this season. SMB and Carlton might have been able to play before they were activated, but Arians gave both an extra week to get all the way back to full strength
SMB got 2 extra weeks. Arians gives TONS of veteran days off, insisting that older players take them regularly. Even Brady, for whom that wasn't practice in the past. A few weeks ago, Arians also started walk-throughs only on Weds to limit wear and tear.