Thread by @datepsych

Although these calculators make it seem as if it is difficult to find an adequate partner, this is not the case.

Mate choice is not random.

The probability of finding a mate in one of the below categories is not the same as the total prevalence in the general population. 🧵

https://twitter.com/HarmlessYardDog/status/1609666680317431808

For example, at face value you would consider these standards (man in fig 1, woman in fig 2 above) very reasonable.

And yet, the combined probability of the two together would be lower than 1% - if it were a random assortment from the general population.

The probability of finding a mate with X characteristic depends on the pool you are selecting a mate from.

It depends on the people you come into contact with each day.

This is part of what is called assortative mating.

sciencedirect.com/topics/biochem…

There are innumerable social forces and personal choices that funnel you into contact with certain people.

Whoever you interact with, anywhere in life - they won't be a representative sample of the population:

You have a much higher probability of meeting someone between age 20-30 if you are on a college campus, for example.

20% of the US population approximately in a random selection.

Close to >90% in selection from a university campus.

Think about the strong correlation between age and mate choice - the average age gap between couples is two years.

The probability of finding a couple with a 30 year age gap is much lower than a 2 year age gap.

Obesity was a filter on these charts.

Consider assortative selection for obesity.

People who are not overweight express strong preferences for partners who are not.

They seek each other out.

And overweight partners find each other, too.

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/17684200/

This means that although the absolute number of potential mates is smaller, so is the pool your prospective partners are choosing from.

In other words, their pool is smaller - and you are in it - making you more likely to be picked by those in a demographic you desire.

What these calculators estimate is the prevalence of someone with those traits in the entire US population.

But perhaps counterintuitively, your own chance of meeting people with those traits can be much higher.

And this depends in part on how similar you are to them.

Think also of what is being given in these calculators - an estimate, a probabilistic snapshot - of how many people exist with X traits.

It is fixed over an extended period of time.

In theory, if you resample people tomorrow, it shouldn't change much.

The probability of meeting another human being is not like this. You can increase it immediately.

Talk to ten people in a bar instead of five - the chance you meet someone with the traits you seek just went up.

Stay at home - your probability is zero.

You can think of it like flipping a fair coin:

The discrete probability of heads is always .5, but the probability of getting heads at least once over a series of five flips is .96

Meeting a potential romantic partner is not a discrete event (usually, hopefully).

The calculators for men and women give you a "delusion score" that implies you are a buffoon if you have what are at face value very reasonable standards.

And yet if you resemble one of these profiles yourself then you probably know a few couples who do as well.

You probably interact with many people of a similar demographic.

It is actually very reasonable for you to expect your eventual romantic partner to fit those traits.