Christmas cleaning; I've chiseled down the number of positions; still not feeling concentrated enough... I have a sizeable cash pile as I want to capitalize on opportunities that might arise soon. I will elaborate more on my positions for once. ⬇️
Kindred $KIND:
Strong Q4 report incoming, & comps will be super-easy for a whole year to come. The purging of the board, replacing it with representants connected to Corvus (who are dead set on pawning off the company), has increased the buyout optionality. Valuation still OK.
Square-Enix $9684.JP:
S-E sports a sultry pipeline for 2023-2024 with titles such as Final Fantasy 16, FF7: R2, Dragon Quest XIII & Kingdom Hearts IV. They do however have a guaranteed massive turd (Forspoken) releasing soon; hoping for a dip. EV/EBIT 7 @ 23/24E. Sony wants them
Betsson $BETS B:
Just like Kindred, Betsson will likely post a smashing Q4 report. The valuation is even lower & the cash pile could be used for cheap M&A. Also a juicy take-over target, especially since they own their own sports book.
Sega-Sammy $6460.JP:
The most undervalued video game IP holder in the world, trading at mid-single digit EV/EBIT with a lot of hidden value. Sonic Frontiers has sold well in Q3 & the Persona re-releases are money-printers at insane RoI. Repurchases could resume soon.
Kambi $KAMBI:
Yet another bet on a huge Q4 for sports betting companies. This is however mostly a take-over play (or: a ticking bomb, since they will lose their partnership with Kindred in a few years). Still no insider transactions for almost a year now...
Arguably the highest quality gaming company in the world right now. Stellar margins & an explosive pipeline with Resident Evil 4 Remake, Street Fighter VI & Monster Hunter Rise (PS/XB) near-term & Monster Hunter 6 2024 (?). The valuation has gone from low to OK.
Tele 2 $TEL2 B:
Possible value trap as their pricing power might not be high enough to offset inflation/higher rates. If they can maintain their current dividend it's however super cheap.
Better Collective $BETCO:
Oh wow, another sports betting company. The valuation has come down considerably. I have a hard time seeing the Q4 report being a downer, but I've never made money on an affiliate before...
Protean Select:
They seem to have a sound investment strategy. Let's see if I can beat them long-term.
Bredband 2 $BRE2:
Same as Tele 2. Might sell this one. Possible take-over candidate, I guess.
Rovio $ROVIO:
Cheap, but nothing substantial ever happens. Only consumes mind-share.
Forgot the pie chart 😭😭😭:
Portfolio 20230103:
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✅ HoI4: NSB (= highest rated HoI4 DLC of all time)
✅ Stellaris: Aquatics (= highest rated Stellaris DLC of all time)
✅ EUIV: Origins (54% is not great, but a step up from Leviathan's 9% (lol) and the highest rated EUIV DLC since 2018)
Going forward, the three main triggers on which I base my case on are:
CK3: Royal Court Expansion (8th of February)
Victoria 3 (hopefully in Q2)
Cities 2 reveal (during PDXCon, perhaps Q2) & release (H1-23?)
If all of these deliver similar quality to the last 2 DLCs... 🥳
Key risks:
- Internal workplace conditions are being analyzed by a third party, this has & could result in more negative media coverage & increase employee turnover/make recruiting more difficult
- As mentioned above, the case hinges on a select few releases performing
Paradox $PDX finally delivers its "big bath" report with extraordinary write-downs of around 133,7 (intential number??) MSEK, resulting in an EBIT of -44,6 MSEK (or 89,1 adjusted). This was a quarter without any real releases, so managing 289 MSEK in revenue even so = not too bad
Going forward, focus will return to the company's core portfolio of strategy and management titles. There has been a lot of money wasted on external publishing titles, so this is a good move. The old CEO is back and is perhaps dressing the bride for $MSFT.
The business obviously bottomed during the last quarter (Q3, jul-sep) and will now see a return to form in Q4 with the important release of the massive HoI4 expansion next week. HoI4 is the by far best currently performing IP in PDX portfolio and should see record engagement.