1/6
1st Week of 2023 - went opposite to what I expected. Oil had a correction while bonds got bought in size, stocks were mostly flat, caught a bid on Friday:
1st Week of 2023 - went opposite to what I expected. Oil had a correction while bonds got bought in size, stocks were mostly flat, caught a bid on Friday:
2/6
Equity sentiment deteriorated some more, and is now on the edge between neutral and pessimistic:
#NAAIM survey down to 38.8
#Rydex ratio up 0.04 to 0.32
#CFTC futures dealers were -3.8% net short
In options
#VIX is a neutral 21.13
#MaxPain for SPY sits at 385
Equity sentiment deteriorated some more, and is now on the edge between neutral and pessimistic:
#NAAIM survey down to 38.8
#Rydex ratio up 0.04 to 0.32
#CFTC futures dealers were -3.8% net short
In options
#VIX is a neutral 21.13
#MaxPain for SPY sits at 385
3/6
Fed liquidity dropped in size, 120 billion down, led by Fed QE effort. Modelled SPX fair value is down to 3614, last time we had such a disconnect from the model was 1 Dec 2022
Fed liquidity dropped in size, 120 billion down, led by Fed QE effort. Modelled SPX fair value is down to 3614, last time we had such a disconnect from the model was 1 Dec 2022
4/6
ETF investors started the year with a thirst for bonds. Bond ETFs of all types got bid:
ETF investors started the year with a thirst for bonds. Bond ETFs of all types got bid:
5/6
Personal note, I expected the year to start with a dump in stocks and rally in oil and was completely wrong. Good thing about being a long-only investor is that you make money even when being completely wrong! Portfolio was up for the week despite oil futures bleeding red.
Personal note, I expected the year to start with a dump in stocks and rally in oil and was completely wrong. Good thing about being a long-only investor is that you make money even when being completely wrong! Portfolio was up for the week despite oil futures bleeding red.
6/6
Looking forward, I still expect asia reopening to put a bid in oil and commodities past lunar new year 22 Jan. Fed liquidity is poor but so is equity sentiment, so hard to say for stocks, if we see further strength into SPX 4000 level I am planning to sell some more stock.
Looking forward, I still expect asia reopening to put a bid in oil and commodities past lunar new year 22 Jan. Fed liquidity is poor but so is equity sentiment, so hard to say for stocks, if we see further strength into SPX 4000 level I am planning to sell some more stock.
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