Thread by @Roots_Journey

Woop woop! 🎉 About to kick off my first event of 2023, #LandExpo23!

Coffeed up! ☕️ Snagged my seat and ready to tweet today’s packed agenda.

🧵 Follow this thread for details. 💻 In depth coverage coming to Agriculture.com soon.

Our first keynote is @PeterZeihan. He opened with an explanation of global population demographics.

Fellow millennials, want to feel old? 👵🏼 Our kids will be entering the workforce in 20 years or less.

@PeterZeihan says China has the fastest aging workforce in human history.

“We are at the end of the Chinese system.” The real question is when and how it will go down, he says.

#LandExpo23

@PeterZeihan predicts the German manufacturing base will end in 2 years. He says, if you want a BMW, get it now - and 10 years of parts.

China’s Xi literally shoots the messenger, so nobody wants to tell him anything, @PeterZeihan says. He tells #LandExpo23 attendees Xi is operating in an information vacuum.

What’s going on with #AfricanSwineFever, you ask? 🐖

@PeterZeihan calls it a “smoldering crisis” in China. It leaves rice (a phosphate hungry crop) as the only other major culturally significant crop they can grow. He says the country has stopped exporting phosphate. 🍚

Globally, we’ve divorced manure from plants, so we need industrial inputs to sustain ag as we know it. China is making issues w/ phosphate. Other fertilizer issues from Russia/Ukraine. The Middle East is not stable, we’re just paying attention to other things, says @PeterZeihan.

China is not our technological peer, says @PeterZeihan at #LandExpo23.

Famine that will claim 1 billion lives is near, says @PeterZeihan.

“Farmers will try to feed the world and fail.” #LandExpo23

Farmers, @PeterZeihan says if you’re going to expand, now is the time. #LandExpo23

During Q&A, @PeterZeihan says he’s bullish on soy and wheat. 🌱🌾🚜

#LandExpo23

Wheat? 🌾

Needs industrial ag inputs to be grown on the marginal land it’s currently grown on. If that industry blows up, wheat must be shifted to better land and prices will increase, @PeterZeihan says.

#LandExpo23

Soy? 🌱

Can fairly easily replace corn in the places it’s grown and is a good source of protein for a hungry world, @PeterZeihan says.

#LandExpo23

That’s a wrap on our first keynote. If you want more from @PeterZeihan, check out this article from my @SuccessfulFarm teammate @CassidyARWalter. #LandExpo23 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼

agriculture.com/news/business/…

#LandExpo23 also has copies of @PeterZeihan’s latest book around the venue.

@crystalcattle and I’s thumbs are busy tweeting our way through #LandExpo23. 😁 👍🏽📱

https://twitter.com/crystalcattle/status/1612813992128401409

@AdamGreggIA introduced the next speaker welcoming guests to Iowa, #1 in 🐖, 🥚, 🌽 and more. He also touted 3 tax cuts in 4 years (individual, corporate, and retirement) including special provisions for retired farmers by the @IAGovernor administration. #LandExpo23

Next on the #LandExpo23 stage… @VivekGRamaswamy.

He’s talking about the link between economy and culture in the U.S.

The rise of communist China and growing corporate + government power are existential threats, he says.

@VivekGRamaswamy says he’s a child of Indian immigrants and rose to CEO of a company that makes cancer treatment. He left to fight a different “cancer” - ESGs that is our new secular religion, he says.

#LandExpo23

“A culture of fear has slowly replaced a culture of free speech.” @VivekGRamaswamy at #LandExpo23

The gap between what people are willing to say in private vs. public is huge these days,
@VivekGRamaswamy says. #LandExpo23

He believes politics aren’t always the solution to the problems laid out in his talk. @VivekGRamaswamy says markets are part of the solution, too.

I’ll lay out his 4 ideas “that go beyond partisanship” in my next few tweets. #LandExpo23

1. Prepare to defeat the Chinese communist party, says @VivekGRamaswamy.

“We cannot defeat an enemy we rely on.”

Restore semi-conductor self sufficiency, he says. #LandExpo23

2. Destroy the managerial class in this country.

“The people we elect to run the gov’t should be the ones that run the gov’t.”

@VivekGRamaswamy suggests replacing civil service protections with sunset clauses.

Concept applies to corporations too, he says.

#LandExpo23

3. Restore free speech.

(This is @VivekGRamaswamy’s biggest passion.)

We need to close the gap between what people will say in public vs. private, he says.

#LandExpo23

3. (Continued) @VivekGRamaswamy:

If you tell people they can’t speak, they scream. If you tell people they can’t scream, they tear things down.

Free speech is necessary for peace in this country, he says.

#LandExpo23

4. Embrace merit again.

@VivekGRamaswamy references MLK’s speech saying people should get ahead on the content of their character and contributions. Get rid of race and gender based quota systems in the federal government, he says.

#LandExpo23

Keynote @VivekGRamaswamy ends his time on #LandExpo23 stage saying we’ve celebrated our differences so much that we’ve forgotten the bigger things that bind us together as Americans. 🇺🇸

#LandExpo23

Time for the first round of #LandExpo23 breakout sessions.

There’s standing room only (I’m sitting on the floor next to the outlet. 😂🔌💻) for Jim Knuth of @farmcredit’s session, “Agriculture Looking Forward”

Jim Knuth with @farmcredit covered a lot of ground in his short time at #LandExpo23 the mic:

1. Land values
2. Interest rates
3. Grain production agriculture
4. Food for thought

I'll do my best to recap in this next part of today's thread.

Who is buying land? @farmcredit's Jim Knuth says, "Farmers." Local capital and competition drives markets. #LandExpo23

The @farmcredit team believes 2022 was the 3rd peak of modern grain production history.

"Farmers have to have a payment they can afford every year, not just at the peak of cycles," says Jim Knuth. #LandExpo23

The tide floating all ships (higher commodity markets) makes it harder to identify the top, middle, and bottom third of producers, says Jim Knuth. #LandExpo23

Here's 6 bits of food for thought Jim Knuth of @farmcredit brought to #LandExpo23 headed into the new year.

1. It's time for both hands on the wheel. Margins for error are narrower.

2. A decline in commodity prices is not likely to mean a decrease in costs, warns Jim Knuth of @farmcredit.

#LandExpo23

3. Entering longer term cash rent agreements at the peak of commodity cycles can be expensive. You don't want to be farming for practice, Jim Knuth of @farmcredit says.

#LandExpo23

4. Restructuring debt for stressed farms will be much more difficult this time around. The math won't work the same way as it did coming out of the ethanol boom, Jim Knuth of @farmcredit says.

#LandExpo23

@farmcredit 5. Be patient and maintain your liquidity. Don't pay cash for everything, says @farmcredit's Jim Knuth.

6. Ask yourself... What is my cost structure? Breakevens? Fixed cost? Land costs? Machinery costs? Are these sustainable if margins normalize (shrink)? What adjustments could our should you make?

#LandExpo23

Next up, @GovDunleavy of Alaska via Zoom. He encouraged #LandExpo23 attendees to consider investing in farmland in his state. I’ll share a few of his pitching points in the next few tweets.

1. Many tax advantages (income and sales) in Alaska.

2. A lot of land in the state has never seen pesticide or herbicide. It lends itself to specialty marketing if those are the sort of crops you want to grow.

3. Alaska has few limits on who owns farmland.

#LandExpo23

@GovDunleavy says Alaska has lots of good land, “copious” amounts of fresh water, open access to Pacific for export, climate that will grow crops, variety of (and room for) livestock.

#LandExpo23

“Our land is cheap and we have lots of it,” says @GovDunleavy citing a recent sale of $500/acre.

#LandExpo23

Next to take the #LandExpo23 stage was @Liautaudjj, the founder of @jimmyjohns.

My phone is about to die, but I’ve got 2 pages of notes from his talk to tweet once I get to a charger.

Catching up from #LandExpo23... Before we move on, Alaska @GovDunleavy shared a photo of Plagerman's bison farm. I recognized it immediately as one of the families I met on @BecksHybrids #WhyIFarm Roadtrip! I had to dust off the story here. 👇🏼👇🏼👇🏼
beckshybrids.com/Blog/ArtMID/84…

@GovDunleavy remarked that his state is a place "where everybody knows each other." It must be true! #LandExpo23

On to @Liautaudjj's time on the #LandExpo23 stage. I usually feel bad for the after lunch speaker, but this guy had the audience more engaged than anybody else!

We relived his journey from HS graduation to founding @jimmyjohns, and now his farm investments in IL, KS, and WI.

Raised in an Army family, @Liautaudjj knew that wasn't the path he wanted. So, his dad gave him a $25,000 loan to open his dream hot dog stand. That turned into a sandwich shop and 20 hour days quickly. He learned to watch his pennies and was very hands on, even as business grew.

Just like in farming, there wasn't just one silver bullet that made the @jimmyjohns chain a success.

When it's go time, it's go time. You just have to do it. "If you don't go, you don't get," @Liautaudjj told the #LandExpo23 crowd.

"Tenacity will beat brains 7 days a week," @Liautaudjj says.

Every Wednesday he would cut and taste every product on the menu.

"You can only expect what you're willing to inspect," he told the folks at #LandExpo23.

I look forward to writing up more about @Liautaudjj's session for @SuccessfulFarm later this week.

Next was @realsarahfrey of Frey Farms. Like Jimmy John Liautaud, she's a successful entrepreneur and shared her journey from humble beginnings on a failing southern Illinois farm.

After spending the first 18 years setting up life to get as far away from the home farm as possible, @realsarahfrey had a sudden change of heart. Reflecting on her emotional connection to the land and her family's memories prompted her decision to save the it.

#LandExpo23

I got to talk with @realsarahfrey earlier this week and can't wait to write up the wisdom and insight she shared with me. Stay tuned to @SuccessfulFarm.

Also, I'm not sure who to thank, but there were copies of Sarah's book available at #LandExpo23. I'm thrilled to have a copy!

After @realsarahfrey, @FrankLuntz took the #LandExpo23 stage. He started complimenting Sarah as an amazing mom, and offered 6 questions to anyone wanting to raise happy, healthy, drug free kids.

Here we go with another list:

1. How often do you sit down and have dinner with your kids?
2. How often do you take them to a faith/religious meeting?
3. How often do you check their homework?
4. How often do you take them on trips of 1+ weeks? (And put down your devices.)

5. Do they tell the truth about where they are on Fri/Sat night? Do you demand the that?
6. How often do they participate in team sports?

@FrankLuntz says statistics show, the better score you have on those questions, the better off your kids will be.

#LandExpo23

"No parent has ever cried to me over an election outcome. They have cried over being successful and their kids are not," @FrankLuntz said at #LandExpo23.

Get your kids off Instagram and YouTube. The more time they spend on social media, the more likely they are to act deranged.

Keynote @FrankLuntz added, the politicians that are most active on social media are the ones that are most likely to act like idiots on the floor of Congress.

#LandExpo23

Ok, that’s enough #LandExpo23 tweets for one day. Carl looks like my brain feels. 🤣

Carl is great to cuddle, but he’s not much help in keeping me awake as I drive 2.5 hrs home from today’s conference.

So, I’m counting on @GuyKawasaki’s interview of @realsarahfrey for that. Check out this episode of Remarkable People. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/guy…

After @realsarahfrey’s podcast, I was feeling warm and fuzzy… and sleepy. I had to find something high energy next.

@Liautaudjj was enthusiastic at #LandExpo23, so I looked him up. Here’s the episode @adammendler had Jimmy as a guest. Just what I needed to finish the drive! 👇🏼

podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/thi…