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More from @kallmemeg

Jan 16
NEW: @UKHSA Variant Technical Briefing 49

🔘 XBB.1.5 and CH.1.1 designated variants

🔘 BQ.1 severity and VE estimates

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image
Start with overall variant picture for England to 1 Jan:

This is Omicron soup. 🍜 Each colour a different Omicron lineage.

BQ.1.1 in light purple 🟣 is the most common at 51% of cases

CH.1.1 in yellow 🟡 is 20% and growing

XBB.1.5 in dark red 🔴 is 4.5% and growing Image
🛑 sampling bias warning❗️

English sequenced cases are *highly* skewed to older ages, due to prioritising samples for sequencing from hospital patients and care homes.

The median age of English 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 sequenced COVID-19 cases is

76 years old 👴🏻 👵🏻 Image
Read 17 tweets
Jan 10
With so much vaccine misinfo on Twitter these days, remember 💭

Nobody denies that vaccines can have serious side effects.

The question is how severe and how often they occur compared to effects of infection.

For adults COVID vaccines have always been safer than infection.💉
The benefit of COVID vaccines for kids (esp under 12) has been hotly debated because it’s not crystal clear that the benefits outweigh potential risks.

But remember — that’s because severe COVID-19 AND vaccine complications are VERY RARE in kids.
So rare in fact - in the order of 10 per million doses - it’s hard to even measure precisely.

No vaccines are risk free, but serious complications are rare. The vast majority of doses give no side effects.

COVID vaccines have prevented millions of deaths
thelancet.com/journals/lanin…
Read 5 tweets
Jan 6
New @CDCgov variant data is out

A good time to remind everyone the last 3 WEEKS numbers are a ‘nowcast’ (modelled, not real data)

Last wk 41% estimate of XBB.1.5 has been revised down to 18% (to 31 Dec)

The curse of the overestimated early growth rate strikes AGAIN.
CDC has update the page with a nice clear explainer of their nowcasting methods ➡️ cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Certain individuals get overexcited & cause a stir over early growth rates.

I think it’s time for a serious discussion about the fact that most models consistently, and for reasons that we don’t fully understand, overestimate the early growth advantage of emerging new variants.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 5
Too busy to tweet so yeah that’s how covid and flu are going at the moment 😔
I kid you not an hour after tweeting this my son did this…

It’s gonna be a long night. 🥱 Image
January is really testing my Dry January resolve.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 29, 2022
When people ask, will the next COVID variant come from China? This is my answer👇

A variant borne of high transmission in a naive population will not be immune evasive. It does not need to be. It will not succeed in a population with lots of immunity of different flavours.
A new immune-evasive variant, eg borne of chronic infection or zoonoses has a fair chance emerging from a high transmission setting BUT takes 6-18 months to appear.

In fact, such a variant could come from anywhere w/community transmission & immunosuppression or animal reservoir.
So do we need to panic? No.

Do we need to remain vigilant, and keep sequencing as many cases as we can, globally? Yes.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 23, 2022
NEW: COVID-19 and Flu surveillance report (+ respiratory viruses!) 🦠

This week worth a thread🧵

Loads of bugs circulating in England at a time when NHS is under immense strain

COVID-19 is ⬆️
Flu is ⬆️
hMPV is ⬆️
Strep A is ⬆️
RSV is ⬇️

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
This is no surprise if you’ve been following UK winter viral data, or… left the house.

Now a sort of crescendo approaches.

We are concerned about a twindemic but reality is more complex with multiple viruses co-circulating at higher than normal levels for this time of year.
I thought it would be a good chance to highlight data from the @UKHSA COVID-19 and Flu report, published weekly with a wide range of metrics which - taken together - shed a lot of light on the winter viral burden.

Also today coronavirus.data.gov.uk was updated
Read 14 tweets

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