With so much vaccine misinfo on Twitter these days, remember 💭
Nobody denies that vaccines can have serious side effects.
The question is how severe and how often they occur compared to effects of infection.
For adults COVID vaccines have always been safer than infection.💉
The benefit of COVID vaccines for kids (esp under 12) has been hotly debated because it’s not crystal clear that the benefits outweigh potential risks.
But remember — that’s because severe COVID-19 AND vaccine complications are VERY RARE in kids.
So rare in fact - in the order of 10 per million doses - it’s hard to even measure precisely.
No vaccines are risk free, but serious complications are rare. The vast majority of doses give no side effects.
A good time to remind everyone the last 3 WEEKS numbers are a ‘nowcast’ (modelled, not real data)
Last wk 41% estimate of XBB.1.5 has been revised down to 18% (to 31 Dec)
The curse of the overestimated early growth rate strikes AGAIN.
CDC has update the page with a nice clear explainer of their nowcasting methods ➡️ cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Certain individuals get overexcited & cause a stir over early growth rates.
I think it’s time for a serious discussion about the fact that most models consistently, and for reasons that we don’t fully understand, overestimate the early growth advantage of emerging new variants.
When people ask, will the next COVID variant come from China? This is my answer👇
A variant borne of high transmission in a naive population will not be immune evasive. It does not need to be. It will not succeed in a population with lots of immunity of different flavours.
A new immune-evasive variant, eg borne of chronic infection or zoonoses has a fair chance emerging from a high transmission setting BUT takes 6-18 months to appear.
In fact, such a variant could come from anywhere w/community transmission & immunosuppression or animal reservoir.
So do we need to panic? No.
Do we need to remain vigilant, and keep sequencing as many cases as we can, globally? Yes.
This is no surprise if you’ve been following UK winter viral data, or… left the house.
Now a sort of crescendo approaches.
We are concerned about a twindemic but reality is more complex with multiple viruses co-circulating at higher than normal levels for this time of year.
I thought it would be a good chance to highlight data from the @UKHSA COVID-19 and Flu report, published weekly with a wide range of metrics which - taken together - shed a lot of light on the winter viral burden.