Philip Femø Profile picture
Jan 16 25 tweets 6 min read
🧵 $EH Lets talk about Ehang and the secret ace up their sleeve.

🧠 Let us talk about the brain of future UAM operators - the Command and Control (C&C) center of Ehang.

#UAM #eVTOL #AAV #UAV #drones #SmartCity #EH216
@aktieuniverset
1/
This key piece of software is responsible for keeping track of your autonomous drone fleet to ensure safety and efficiency. It has 5 main purposes:

🖥 Monitoring
🛫 Dispatching
🛂 Controlling
⚠️ Warning
🧠 Centralizing

Lets go through each area in depth!
2/
🖥 Monitoring
The holistic overview of your entire fleet, regardless of product type:

- eVTOL
- UAV
- AAV

This part of the system allows you to see where every unit is and the direction they are moving as well as their current flight route.
3/
🖥 Monitoring
This part allows you to inspect all the operational metrics of your units as well including:

- Altitude
- Speed
- Battery level
- Video from external and internal cameras on the unit

4/
🛫 Dispatching
Controls the management and coordination of take-off and landing for your units. For example:

If an EH216-S is currently landing in a single landing spot location it will reroute the en route units to circle and wait for clearance.

5/
🛫 Dispatching
If you have multiple landing spots on your location, this part of the system can reroute incoming units to the available spots as well.

Similarly for takeoff, it can schedule the takeoff to not interrupt incoming landings etc.

6/
🛫 Dispatching
The C&C center also provide flight planning for efficiency for your operations.

Flight planning is in 3 dimensions(!) and real time:
- Latitude
- Longitude
- Latitude

The parallelisation required here is truly a hard problem to solve in isolation.

7/
🛫 Dispatching
Not only must you coordinate for EACH vertiport, you must also solve this issue of parallelized operation planning distributed across ALL vertiports.

If the routes of one vertiport interfere with the routes of another, then those need to coordinate in-between

8/
🛫 Dispatching
My background is in Software Engineering and I work with event stream processing for distributed systems.

I can tell from first hand experience that the engineering feat in this software needs to be out of this world.

9/
🛂 Controlling
On top of this, if something unforeseen happens for a unit the C&C center allows you to take re-route, emergency land or take manual control over a unit to ensure safety of the unit.

In addition it will re-route other units en route if needed.

10/
🛂 Controlling
All of this is also happening real-time in parallel with other vertiport operations and other in-air units.

The level of coordination needed for emergency intervention is also incredibly high.

11/
⚠️ Warning
This part of the system analyze the operation metrics and alert if there is a divergence that potentially needs human observation and consideration.

12/
🧠 Centralizing
All of the previous points are centralized into ONE system so you can manage everything.

Imagine a city, Guangzhou, will have 20+ vertiports across the city, 50+ routes and 100s of units for Taxi, Logistics, Last-mile delivery etc.

13/
🧠 Centralizing
All of these different purposed units need to be coordinated so a logistics drone does not crash into a passenger drone, or a food delivery (very small, last mile) drone does not crash into either.

14/
With this in mind, lets take a look at what Ehang has said about the C&C system and their pivot from OEM to platform operator and provider:

Q2 2020 and Q3 2020 ER Ehang let us know they are partnering up with local governments to deliver C&C systems for managing their fleet

15/
Hu Huazhi from Q3 2020 ER:
we are going to see more of our command control centers being built in different cities. This will improve the operation of our EH216 passenger AAV, and improve the smart city management for the local government and which may generate more revenues

16/
We learned that Ehang will first monetize in two ways:

- Income from building the C&C
- Income from operating it on behalf of city

In addition there will be extra services and special cases they will also be charging for as well as training courses for gov. employees.

17/
Q1/Q2 2021 Ehang told us that gross margins reached 68% as a result of their revenue from C&C.

They are increasingly emphasizing the importance of air traffic management systems, platforms and ecosystems for the future of UAM.

/18
Key take is:
- There will be a huge business in UAM systems for C&C and traffic management
- Ehang have developed their own system based on their AAV experience (+10k flights +6k operational)

Cities and operators who are looking to utilize UAV/AAV fleets will need a system.

19/
Imagine being a local government in a city that will have private companies and government flying drones for logistics, last-mile delivery, passenger transport and more.

I will want a system to centralize the traffic to ensure safety of my citizens and the city.

20/
A city cannot allow wild west conditions for this type of operations.

Who should I choose as the standard for C&C management of my city?

I would choose the provider whose system has the most strict requirements and guarantees for safety.

21/
Who are likely to have those guarantees?
- A logistics company transporting goods that are destroyed if a drone crashes?
- A company transporting people that potentially die if the drone crashes?
- A company specializing in UAM C&Cs but with no OEM or operational exp.?

22/
I believe it is fairly obvious to choose the passenger-grade transportation company for providing this service.

This means that potentially all cities in China will use Ehang C&C to ensure their low-altitude airspace is safely operated by all parties in the city.

23/
Imagine the revenue models you can build on such a system?

- Mth. price per aircraft for 3rd parties
- Mth. price for having the system for the city
- Mth. price if Ehang employees are operating it
- Pricing tiers for added features etc.

Options are unlimited for this.

24/
In conclusion I believe we are underestimating the potential for Ehang C&C revenue.

If Ehang becomes #1 OEM and Operator it is natural that gov. will use Ehang as well.

The combination of unit sales and SaaS is HUGE and no other competitors are close to realizing this.

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More from @PhilipFemo

Aug 9, 2022
🧵 on my largest position $EH part two:

So you got interested in Ehang from my first thread:


But you're asking yourself.. What happened to the share price?

Lets revisit a dark time for $EH together and shed some light on it.
Ehang stock price from 2019-2022. ATH ~$120.
Current share price: ~$7.5
Why did Ehang run wild?
- 2021 bull run was in full effect
- eVTOL SPACS were gaining popularity
- EH annoucing various traction on CAAC type certification
- EH announcing increasing sales (prior to switching to an operator model, EH were focused on selling as an OEM)
Read 27 tweets
Aug 8, 2022
$PLTR probably time to trim my exposure here after disappointing earnings. 4.5B revenue in 2025?
If they trade at 10x that'll be a ~$20 PT in 2025 a 90-120% ROI over 3 years. Not bad, but not exceptional.
🧵 About PLTR position revision.
It seems like PLTR is having issues scaling "the best software in the world" and are now guiding with FY22 1.9bn in revenue up 42% YoY from FY21.
Their goal is to hit 4.5bn FY25 which would require a 45% YoY revenue but the trend is down so hitting the goal now seems less likely.
Alex Karp seemed frustrated, annoyed and snarky on the earnings call. He reiterated that people hate them but they come back because their software is unmatched; "it sells itself".

I'm displeased the reiteration of "the product sells itself" and it worries me to hear this again.
Read 8 tweets
Aug 5, 2022
🧵About my largest and most controversial position.
A thread about $EH (EHang).

What is it? An electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) company.

Why is it controversial? It is a Chinese company.
What is an eVTOL?
Shortly put, it's a 'helicopter' but on electricity instead of gas. They come in many shapes and someare referred to as drones or flying cars, some are just helicopters.
What makes eVTOLs special?
A helicopter is pretty expensive. Ask around; when was the last time someone you knew grabbed a helicopter to the airport instead of a taxi?

The eVTOLs are the foundation for the next wave of Urban Air Mobility (UAM).
Read 18 tweets

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