Thread by @DanielDiMartino

🧵The new process for #Venezuela implemented since October has massively reduced the number of Venezuelans who cross the U.S. southern border. I estimate that 59% fewer Venezuelans are crossing than otherwise.

What can we expect now this process is expanded to other countries?

Venezuelans, Cubans, Haitians, and Nicaraguans were being allowed to claim asylum in the U.S. by the tens of thousands. In September over 80,000 came in under Title 8 and very few were expelled under Title 42 due to the presumption that they have strong asylum cases.

In October, the Biden admin. created the Venezuelan Parole Program, allowing up to 24,000 Venezuelans to enter the U.S. if they find a legal U.S. sponsor, are vetted, get vaccinated, and pay for their travel.

Then they began expelling everyone who still crossed the border.

This carrot and stick strategy worked! Border crossings from Venezuelans dropped from nearly 34,000 per month to 8,200 in two months. A 75% drop! A few thousand began being expelled under Title 42.

The illegal immigration reduction was larger than the legal immigration increase.

Now the administration is building upon the success of the Venezuelan parole program and replacing it with a 30,000 per month parole program for Venezuelans but also for Cubans, Nicaraguans, and Haitians. So up to 30,000 nationals of all these four nations combined monthly.

What can we expect? At least 45,000 fewer illegal immigrants from #Cuba #Haiti & #Nicaragua, on top of the Venezuelan illegal immigration reductions of over 28,000.

30,000 parolees that are vetted and supported by US sponsors in exchange for over 73,000 fewer illegal immigrants.

The numbers are inferences, really we expect a 59% reduction, it may be larger or smaller depending on monthly flows and as such the program might make sense now with 30,000 slots per month but not a year into the future. Something to watch out for.