Because I’m England 🏴 it’s currently in head-to-head competition with XBB.1.5 in UK.
Although it has had a head start, it’s still spreading quickly and seemingly unhindered by XBB.1.5
How do the immune evasion profiles compare?
This data from @yunlong_cao shows CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5 have similar neutralisation titres versus vaxxed + BA.5 breakthrough infection
But, XBB.1.5 remains a concern.
While numbers XBB.1.5 are small in this analysis (n~130)
XBB.1.5 is showing a higher growth rate than CH.1.1 (relative to BA.5) in England
🛑 I’ve warned about over interpretation of early growth rates before ⤵️
UKHSA data is no exception. As I said above, we’d prefer to restrict growth rates to ONS survey data alone. But couldn’t because XBB.1.5 numbers were too small yet.
So my sense is that XBB.1.5 will eventually come to dominate.
Meanwhile, it is plausible that CH.1.1 and XBB.1.5 will grow in tandem and cooperate to increase COVID incidence in England 🏴 over the next few weeks. The size of wave is unclear, but unlikely to be BA.1/BA.2 levels.
In terms of severity of XBB.1.5, we have some early reassuring data from @PeacockFlu lab at @imperialcollege
XBB (parent lineage) acts like previous Omicron lineages with the altered entry pathway and preference for nasal 👃 cell tissue over lung 🫁
We will keep a very close eye on the mutations XBB picks up, especially on spike.
As @PeacockFlu notes, #F486P may act as evolutionary credit, covering the cost of new mutations, even if detrimental, but over time such rapid evolution can result in some nasty new variants…
FINALLY:
🔺New BQ.1 vaccine & severity analysis
• Risk of Hospitalisation with BQ.1 (after A&E attendance): aOR 1.06 (0.97-1.17) vs BA.5
Been a while since I have done a Friday night data drop thread!
But important to note this is a risk assessment, rather than a data report, due to limited numbers of sequences (6 cases in 4 countries at time of publication)
The assessment was performed today by UKHSA public health teams in collaboration with counterparts in EW&NI, academics & clinicians.
Key points:
• The geographical distribution of cases without travel history “suggests there is established international transmission”