Thread by @_arnoldkh

Official figures show an extreme rise in crimes related to guns and explosives in Russia. In some regions the number has increased by 2-6 times. Does this mean that there is an outburst of violence and is it connected to the war? 🧵1/11

Some experts try to explain these figures by saying that the war veterans are returning to the country. With them illegal weapons are coming in. As @k_sonin wrote, this combination might provoke a “civil war” of some kind. 2/11

Most likely all this will happen, but later. Not enough people have returned from the war yet. So the current surge in these types of crimes means something completely different. 3/11

First, the low base effect must be taken into account. The largest growth in gun related crimes is in the Kursk region (by 540% if we compare 11 months of 2021 vs 2022). But in absolute terms, the growth is "only" from 5 to 32 cases. 4/11

But most importantly, a major part of these “extra” crimes related to guns and explosives were committed outside of Russia. Most likely in the war zone. 5/11

Let's take Moscow as an example. There is also an increase in gun crimes here – from 167 to 777 cases (almost x5). However, 72% of the crimes that were included in the Moscow statistics and will be investigated in the capital actually took place outside Russia. 6/11

There is also a 4x increase in crimes committed with the use of explosives in Russia overall (255 in 2022 vs 59 in 2021). At the same time, 60% of such crimes in 2022, apparently, were committed on the territory of military bases located outside the country. 7/11

So there actually is a rise of crimes related to guns and explosives, but it’s only observerd in the border regions due to the proximity of the war zone and at military bases. Other than that, there is no data showing an outburst of gun violence inside Russia yet. 8/11

The number of violent crimes is still at or below last year's level. And it looks accurate – the homicide statistics are considered relatively reliable and difficult to manipulate. 9/11

Does that mean everything is fine? Not at all. According to research, there will be an increase in violent crime and crime rates in general, but later. Now, on the contrary, a decrease is likely to take place, because many "potential criminals" are now in the combat zone. 10/11

We monitor crime stats every month and we will let you know when the situation changes. Check out the full article at @novayagazeta_en novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/… 11/11