There's something fatally anachronistic about Hochul. Machine politics have so deeply insulated her from ordinary Ds (moderates & progs) that she has no conception of the extraordinary personal investments of time, emotion, money they've made since 2017 to defeat the GOP.
In Hochul world, the Albany carousel still whirls as if it's 2012. Wall Street donors, machine hacks, and 'deal-making' Republicans are her chief collaborators. ActBlue doesn't exist. Indivisible never happened. Trump is guy you can do deals with.
New York City has millions of fired-up partisans from across the ideological spectrum, waiting for a NY leader of integrity and purpose to get behind. Hochul would seem no have conception of, or interest in, their existence or their strength of feeling. They are *in her way.*
This leads to disastrous miscalculations. In Hochul World, satisfying the secret machine bargain underlying the #LaSalle nomination > respecting the wishes of the party base. That might have worked when Cuomo was gov & his IDC gave GOP control of the NY Senate. But not anymore.
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This isn't good--it's always better to be ahead in the polls--but a number of things to bear in mind. nytimes.com/2022/10/17/us/…
The big one: respondents responsible for fluctuations in polling (i.e. low-info nonpartisans) sit out the midterms at a disproportionately high rate. So this poll (of selfdescribed 'likely voters') is largely recording a superfluous change of sentiment.
Base turnout therefore remains the #1 route to victory. It remains true that if Dems stoke & mobilize the base, and scare people off the GOP, they win.
Reminder that a civil suit for fraud will take many years.
Reminder that if Trump has a core skill, it is absorbing law suits alleging fraud.
The point being: The law of torts is a sideshow, and Trump is above the criminal law. These and other legal proceedings only matter to the extent that they are transmuted into political narratives by Dems and the media.
The J6C is actively erasing the line between the failed coup and ongoing actions--not by Trump but by ordinary Republican officials all over the country, from SCOTUS to state legislatures to sheriffs' offices--to undermine the democracy and enable one-party rule *by the GOP.*
More broadly, we are hurtling towards the situation where the evidence of our eyes will be scrubbed out and we will not be able to say that the Republican Party attempted a coup on J6--even though that's precisely what happened, as subsequent actions *by the GOP* have confirmed.
I'll say it again: there's something deeply wrong with these proceedings, in which all roads lead to Trump and away from the GOP, and in which R officials and uniformed men and women are relentlessly lionized and Dems--the victims this political aggression--are erased.
It's always the same: when it comes to the crunch, Republicans are the protagonists, Republicans have the final say, Republicans decide.
Our votes were the ones being overturned. Our candidate was the one being wronged. Our people were the ones under attack. And yet we are nowhere to be seen.
If Dems adopted a classic storytelling structure, with conflicts and high stakes--good v bad, prosperity v ruin, Ds v Rs--they would find it easier to communicate their economic superiority. Currently they're just spewing out data and leaving a vacuum where a narrative should be.
A narratological insight: the best stories are authoritative. Narrative authority is mysterious, but it involves self-belief and a (tacit/explicit) aura of command. This applies to standup comedians as much as to novelists. Catastrophically, Ds have ceded authority to the GOP.
Old Ds never dare to raise their heads above the parapet of data.
"It's raining jobs."
"We are the party of prosperity."
"If you don't like inflation, don't vote Republican."
Ds never tell an authoritative story like this.
This collapse in Biden's approval coincides with uniquely favorable political opportunities (J6C, Roe v Wade, rogue SCOTUS). IOW, his is the *least effective political strategy ever.*
It's not like the economy suddenly collapsed. It's not as if we just lost a war. It's not as if gas prices and inflation have spiked to unseen levels. It's that Biden has contrived to alienate a chunk of his base in a disastrous attempt to woo imaginary pocketbook voters.
His personal unpopularity and weakness is endangering strong Dem candidates in the midterms. He has to accept the data and change course.