Talking bullish while chewing bearish at the same time is an art 😂
But the technicals suggest we can still set up for a larger rally in H1 before a larger roll over in H2 if the Fed makes a policy error and stays too high too long in face of the data.
My interview earlier today:
The chart I'm referring to in the interview is this $NDX chart I've shared before in the NorthCasts.
It's pretty clear that a big market decision is upcoming & this is what the market is currently negotiating.
Key to watch is new highs new lows into month end.
the other chart I'm referring to in the interview is equal weight $XVG which has clearly broken out and is now pulling back. Key to watch if a backtest can be successfully defended which would be bullish or if it fails & then the breakout would have been a fake out.
Hence, given the alignment of these charts, my sense is that the next 2-3 weeks will be key from a technical perspective & set the stage for H1.
The battle lines for control are pretty clear.
GL.
Stocks with big lay off announcements are rallying.
Take note.

$AMZN $GOOG $MSFT
#margins
$MSFT: +3.5%
$AMZN: +3.6%
$GOOGL: +5.1%

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More from @NorthmanTrader

Jan 20
"Soft landing cause the labor market is so strong."

Oh kay.

Narrator: The unemployment rate is always lowest before the recession as the yield curve is inverted.
Then everything changes. Image
Note: In most cases, but not all, markets still tend to rally first before the recession when the yield curve begins the process of un-inverting. But then, as the recession kicks in and the yield curve steepens dramatically, that's when typically the real market trouble begins. Image
How it will play out this time? TBD of course, but just thought I'd add a little historic perspective.
Read 5 tweets
Jan 18
The first step to any recession: Declining industrial production
And this I happening with the full lag effects of rate hikes still filtering through the economy.

The current tailwind of easing financial conditions from lower dollar and lower yields will ultimately be offset by the economy going into recession.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 11
NorthCast Market Update: Surprising Bullish Charts

An interesting dichotomy: Big macro risk yet very bullish technical behavior in some key charts. What gives?
$DAX $FTSE $NYSE $DJIA $NDX
$DAX updated Image
$NYSE updated, context on top of thread. Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 5
In 2021 the Fed insisted on printing while inflation was rising vastly above their target.
Now in 2023 the Fed is insisting on continuing raising rates for the most aggressive rate hike cycle into the highest debt construct ever with inflation falling.
Now Neel is trying to explain away the inflation mistake by saying most others got it wrong & their models weren't adequate. Lots of people warned the Fed but they refused to listen to anyone.
Hiding behind "models" is a poor excuse for lack of judgement.

It doesn't take an economic genius to figure out that the combination of record fiscal stimulus free funded by the Fed in addition to vast balance sheet expansion resulting in a 25% increase in money supply would be inflationary. The lack of judgement has been appalling. Image
Read 8 tweets
Dec 19, 2022
Perhaps the best long term option for Elon & his other businesses would be for him to bite the bullet and sell Twitter for a loss and move on.
If the US does head into a recession managing existing businesses will require a laser sharp focus & mental bandwidth to manage.
That's of course not for me to decide, but there's only 24 hours in a day and a recession will continue to be a major drag on finances as Twitter bleeds cash for the foreseeable future.
If they can create a major alternative to ad revenue in short order then perhaps not an issue.
As it stands $TSLA is currently seeing its first 5th monthly consecutive decline in the stock's history with now a break of major support. Month not over, but pretty clear that the Twitter venture has exacerbated the decline in addition to general macro issues.
Read 5 tweets
Dec 19, 2022
"We fought inflation by making housing even more unaffordable after we goosed house prices to the moon with money printing". Fed policy results
You pay for your car loan until the car is worthless.
Read 5 tweets

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