1/ So many good insights into Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner Group in this piece by @Bershidsky. His analysis is, thankfully, free of the endless hype and self-promotion that analysis Prigozhin's role in 🇺🇦 normally centers on. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
2/ I'm especially impressed by the comparison that Bershidsky draws between Putin's current dealings with Prigozhin and his 1990s-era connections to famed Leningrad Vladimir Kumarin who @CatherineBelton chronicled in her book "Putin's People."
3/ Acc to Bershidsky, the Prigozhin phenomenon is both a manifestation of the degradation of the Putin system as it deals with severe stress & under-performance in 🇺🇦 AND a reminder that (this is key, to my mind) thugs for hire like Prigozhin are still on the outside looking in.
4/ As I wrote in ACCIDENTAL CZAR, one of the pivotal aspects of identity is that he's a true believer in a strong state (gosudarstvennik).
When people like Prigozhin (or Kumarin before him), can be helpful, do errands for the state, etc Putin is all too happy to enlist them.
5/ Prigozhin and his ilk relentlessly try to look like hotshots on social media and TV because they want a claim on the enormous resources and patronage that "official" parts of the state like the Russian military can lay claim to.
6/ With 50K men in Ukraine and a monthly budget of $100 million, Wagner is clearly moving up in the world. But, as my colleague @Stanovaya explained:
The last paragraph of Bershidsky's piece is especially memorable: I only wish that there was an image by @boxbrown to accompany it! END
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2/x Uncannily, Gen. Zaluzhny echoes a senior US military officer: "We are talking about the scale of WW1 [in which the British Army fired a million shells...I was told, “We will lose Europe. We will have nothing to live on if you fire that many shells.” defense.gov/News/Transcrip…
3/x Zaluzhny says the brutal Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy grid and critical infrastructure are working and could have a major impact on his soldiers' will to fight.
.@nickschifrin and I covered several key themes from the book, including Putin’s frequent embellishment of his life story (which was perfectly interesting already!) and self-serving portrayal of Russia’s convulsive history to justify his own actions. 2/
For example, Putin’s older brother Viktor was among the nearly million people who perished during the unspeakably horrible, 872-day Nazi siege of Leningrad. Viktor Putin was only one years old.
1/x New Kremlin talking points about 🇺🇦 set up a head-on collision with the general public.
Take heed of this major rhetorical shift from Putin's senior political advisor, Sergei Kiriyenko. tass.ru/politika/16127…
2/x Kiriyenko spoke at length a forum of educators and school administrators. "Russia has always won any war if that war became a people's (narodniy) war. That's how it's always been."
3/x "We will also definitely win this war, too. Both the 'hot' one and the economic one and the psychological one and the information one that's being waged against us."
1/x Why does Prigozhin keep doing things that don't make strategic sense like pouring Wagner's fighters into a 4-month-long attack on Bakhmut where the "front line has barely moved in four months of heavy fighting"? washingtonpost.com/world/2022/10/…@leloveluck@RobynDixon__
2/x This bracing account of the battle for Bakhmut reveals how Wagner's actions "have eclipsed all strategic logic" and how "after a disorderly Russian retreat from nearby Izyum, the battle for Bakhmut is no longer part of any coordinated military operation."
3/x The answer lies in the highly informal & personalistic nature of Putin's regime. In theory, waging full-scale war should be the moment when all elements of national power are harnessed in support of a singular goal (victory). Prigozhin's antics show why that's not the case.
1/x Very grateful to @jdickerson for our conversation about my graphic novel about Putin, what Putin's KGB years tell us about his state of mind & why Biden's comments about Putin's nuclear blackmail and his being a "rational actor" don't tell the whole story.
2/x Biden was trying to do a bit of damage control after his comments that the world is now closer to nuclear Armageddon than any point since the Cuban Missile crisis. BUT his comments to @jaketapper are quite revealing about why the White House is still very worried.
3/x The full quotes from Biden explain how the situation in Ukraine could yet spin out of control, why Putin might get desperate enough to do something unprecedented, and why it's not acceptable for Putin to act with impunity. cnn.com/2022/10/12/pol…
1/x Couple of interesting nuggets from Putin's photo op with UAE leader MBZ that align with findings of my recent article on the Russian lovefest with Saudi Arabia and Gulf Arab states. carnegieendowment.org/2022/10/05/wha…
2/x Putin emphasizes how last week's move by OPEC Plus to cut oil production wasn't aimed at anybody when, in fact, such moves to push prices higher are potentially quite harmful to the wobbly global economy which has more than its share of inflationary headwinds.
3/x "We aren't planning anything or doing anything that would cause anyone any problems," Putin claims. Concerns about global recession and slowing Chinese demand have dampened oil prices for months, but Saudis/UAE and Russia are the only 3 states in a position to turn the tide.