Thread by @EBL2017

Mikel Arteta has revived Arsenal, & Erik ten Hag is reviving Manchester United. They match up for the second time this season on Sunday as the two *ELITE* managers go head-to-head one more time..

Below, in this forensic 45 tweet thread, I break the tactical battle down.

THREAD!

Arsenal vs Manchester United starts and ends with the likely simplicity of ten Hag's approach.

United are very much so a work in progress in terms of individual and collective quality, so ten Hag often reverts to the basics in big games, and this will be no different at Arsenal.

However, there is a misconception that United don't try to press in these types of games. That's not true.

Their press is just rather easily bypassed due to the fact that their wide players are tasked with marking the ball-side fullback AND centre back.

Ten Hag's pressing structure can be exploited in the very first phase of build-up against a team like Arsenal or City when their fullbacks are deep and wide or in settled situations where the fullbacks invert into midfield and/or the #8's drop deep.

However, ten Hag knows what he's doing. He's an elite manager, after all, and there is likely a reason why United don't press as aggressively as they ideally could, and that's because the team are only half a season into his rebuild, so he prefers a more cautious approach.

Ten Hag's Ajax used to press with far more aggression than the his current United team do and that's because they were more accomplished tactically and individually (relative to their opposition) and it enabled them to be more aggressive with the fullbacks.

United's fullback do back up the press when required, though, as was evident in the Manchester derby.

Once City went 1-0 up, ten Hag unleashed the constraints applied to his fullbacks who then backed up the press behind the inverted wingers who pressurised the centre backs.

However, United's passive approach has seen them beat both City *and* Arsenal this season, and the reason for that is obvious. United can turn defence into attack in the blink of an eye thanks to their unstoppable transitional qualities.

They have the technical quality and ball carriers to evade pressure in the build-up, the transitional passers in midfield to release runners, and elite outlets in the forward line. Someone like Rashford can win his team a game at any moment. His threat is relentless.

Ten Hag is also adaptable with the way he sets his team up from goal kicks and in build-up situations. United are encouraged to play out from the back where they see fit, but their primary approach when de Gea has the ball at his feet is to go long & battle for duels in midfield.

This approach makes sense when considering they don't press high with regular success which means that they're regularly pinned back into a med or low block against possession-based teams so to try & play out from the back when the opposition are high positionally would be naive.

United do that on occasion, but only when it's 'on'. When it's not, they go long and battle for duels in midfield. Here they excel winning second balls thanks to the presence of a guy like Casemiro, but with him unavailable for the game, McTominay will come in and play that role.

Casemiro's absence is largely overblown as a result of McTominay's presence as although he doesn't possess the fancy "samba" name, he also excels at winning aerial and ground duels whilst being underrated technically. If United lose, it won't be solely down to Casemiro's absence.

It's in the aftermath of potential duel wins where United are so frighteningly dangerous, whether they be direct and play passes into the likes of Rashford and Martial in transition or recycle and use their elite positional play to break down the oppositions defence.

Those qualities in tandem with United's ability to counter-attack with devastation speaks to the threat they possess in each phase of play. United may average little ball possession but they don't need much of it to score.

One attack is enough.

It's also disrespectful and incorrect to suggest ten Hag's United are *just* a counter-attacking/transition-based team against the best sides.

Their positional play is up there with the best in the world and when they sustain attacks they're *very* hard to stop from scoring.

However, creating that theme reliably is problematic for United when considering that Arsenal will likely dominate the ball due to United's passive pressing.

Unless Martial (#9) shifts across accordingly to press the ball-side centre back, Arsenal will have a 2v1 on the sides.

This becomes even more problematic for United in settled play when Arsenal are so fluid and difficult to track in build-up situations. Zinchenko often inverts into midfield and White inverts into the back 3 so the shape fluctuates from a 4-1 to a 3-2, & that can be hard to press.

City had the same overload against United in both of their fixtures against them this season and won the first game 6-3 (it was 6-1 at one point) and lost the second game 2-1. The difference? City almost exclusively built play in a 4-1 shape in the 2nd game. They lacked fluidity.

Pep changed that after half-time, though, and that's when City went 1-0 up, but the game was still on a knife-edge due to the tight scoreline and United's transitional qualities took over. Arsenal, though, won't be so rigid.

They'll build play like City did in the 6-3 game.

Arsenal already did this at Old Trafford, though, and lost, so it shows just how ruthless United can be despite favourable tactical conditions for the opposition. However, this game is at The Emirates. The onus will be even more so on Arsenal to take the game to UTD aggressively.

Not only that, but Thomas Partey wasn't available at Old Trafford last time around, but this time he is, and he's in the form of his life right now.

Taken together, this specific tactical theme in the game suggests Arsenal will dominate the ball at an even gamestate.

From there, Arsenal can play through United's lines and exploit them directly in transition OR pin them back into a low block and try to sustain pressure and break them down that way.

United will likely be exposed to lots of unfavourable situations such as 1v1's and overloads.

Guys like Wan-Bissaka are elite 1v1 defenders so his presence will be invaluable in stopping Martinelli, but Arsenal will primarily look to create through waves of pressure as opposed to individual battles.

They'll get both, but the latter is a better method of control/creation.

When Arsenal sustain attacks their positional play is utterly sensational. They stretch the pitch wide and have the optimal balance of circulatory, penetrative, 1v1, and creative profiles in midfield and attack.

The entire unit is in close proximity. It makes attacking easy.

When considering that Arsenal will dominate the ball for large periods and that they attack with 5 in the last line and that United defend with 4 in the last line, that is a clear aspect of the game that gives Arsenal a major advantage, and they're ultra-compact behind that too!

Part of what makes Arteta's Arsenal so special is their compactness in defensive transition. They are relentless physically *AND* collectively.

Someone like Zinchenko may lack physicality in 1v1 situations, but his inversions keep the entire unit compact.

That physicality and compactness across the team is why Arsenal are equally comfortable in going long from goal kicks and in build-up situations, and when considering United do the exact same thing, duels in midfield will be a key battle to determining the flow of the game.

If United can win duels they can spring one of their outlets free in transition or recycle to retain possession and sustain an attack of their own, and Arsenal can do the same, but it's more detrimental for Arsenal if they lose the duel as their style is more reliant on control.

United's approach is more simplistic in the sense that Arsenal need to pin United back and try and control them through passing and pressing, but ten Hag is largely happy for his team to not have the ball, so disrupting Arsenal's sustained pressure = added control for United.

United have the physical and technical qualities to take control away from Arsenal, particularly in transition, but even if they can get settled possession they have the quality to keep the ball away from Arsenal & control it themselves because Arsenal can be passive in the press

When the game was tight in the first half against Spurs Arsenal had 56% of the ball & controlled the game through passing/pressing. However, in the 2nd half, they only averaged 40% of the ball. The difference? They were 2-0 up.

Arsenal have a habit of dropping deep when winning.

That exact habit is what cost Manchester United exact Crystal Palace. In the first half United were in total control but as soon as they went 1-0 up they stopped controlling the game through passing and pressing and it all became a little chaotic, and they were punished for it.

Spurs had 13 shots and 60% possession in the second half against Arsenal, and easily could have scored at least 1 goal with 0.9 xG accumulated in that half alone, but Ramsdale had a stormer and kept them out.

That, though, is an undeniable positive for ten Hag's United.

At 0-0, Arsenal will likely dominate the ball due to their build-up structure and quality against United's passive press. Then, when considering they have a clear overload in the final third vs United's last line, they're likely to have the better of the theme of the game.

However, if Arsenal go 1-0 up, they may drop back and be less aggressive in the press. Their low block is excellent as Arteta brings Saka or Martinelli all the way back into the last line of defence to do his utmost to prevent overloads, but it undeniably invites pressure.

Then, when considering how good United's settled attacks are, then that spells for trouble. However, football is multifaceted and difficult to predict. The players will determine the flow of the game.

Arsenal could go ahead, learn from the last game, and maintain control.

That's what Arteta will encourage them to do regardless of the gamestate.

Ten Hag will likely do the same, except relative to his own game plan. He will want United to disrupt Arsenal as much as possible and then they themselves can go 1-0 up! The players decide that.

Overall, though, Arsenal have clear tactical advantages at 0-0, and that cannot be ignored. The fact that they have elite technical quality across the park within an elite build-up and settled attacking structure against a passive press & back four means they *WILL* create a lot.

Arsenal also have the pressing structure to disrupt United's build-up when they play out from the back, the physicality to win duels in midfield, the compactness in transition to prevent counter attacks.. you name it.

However, football isn't played on paper. United have QUALITY.

Arsenal were similarly compact away at Old Trafford and were destroyed in moments because that's how special A) their transitional qualities are and B) ten Hag's positional play is.

Arsenal will control the majority of the ball, but all United need is a moment or two to win.

That's what we saw against City. City were undeniably subpar on the day, but they dominated the ball and pressed United well but created less chances as a whole because Rashford and Fernandes were so special in transition.

The margins are so, so fine against elite footballers.

What I will say is that the game favours Arsenal in *more* gamestates than it does United, though.

If Arsenal go 1-0 down, they have the quality and structure to regain control, exploit United's shape, & create chances. At 0-0, it's the same. At 1-0 up, the onus is also on them!

United, on the other hand, are more so reliant on individual quality in 1v1 defensive moments, in duel situations, in transitions, technically to retain possession, etc.

It's simply a less reliable method of winning football matches against a team as good as Arsenal.

As ever, the game is in Arteta's Arsenal's hands. This group of players are so special & are complete at every facet of play possible, but nobody can rule out Marcus Rashford, Bruno Fernandes, & the like out with any real confidence. They give United a chance in every game.

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