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Benedict Barclay Profile picture
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Jan 19 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Another week, another #EuroMOMO update.

And excess deaths are again very high.

🧵
For all ages, the estimated number of deaths in week 51 is now just above the peak of the Alpha wave in early 2021.

2/ Image
Excess deaths in the 0-14 age band remain near record levels (and higher than at any time earlier in the pandemic).

In this week's report, the 15-44 age band also reached a new high for the pandemic.

3/ Image
Looking at individual countries, Germany has a shockingly high excess, but France, England, Denmark, Sweden, Italy, Spain and Slovenia are all (very) high too. Image
Relevant here?

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More from @BarclayBenedict

Benedict Barclay Profile picture
Jan 8
I can't find it now, but someone recently responded to one of my posts on Covid deaths in Denmark with this graph.

Implication: look, in the grand scheme of things, deaths aren't that high now.

But this is where the of/with argument works in reverse.

1/
Because of less testing, and other changes to how data is presented, most "with" deaths don't get counted these days.

During that big peak last year they did. If you look at just "of" deaths (the red ones on this graph) last year's peak shrinks significantly.

2/
This year, 85 of 94 Covid deaths in the most recent week were "of" Covid.

Last year it was 181 of 293 in the very highest week.

As this year's figure will be revised up, and we're probably not at the peak, this year will end up over half of last year's number.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Benedict Barclay Profile picture
Jan 4
I've finally had time to do a new Substack post.

Inspired by the breakthrough achieved by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, it's on #fusion power.

And particularly how that relates to the energy transition and achieving net zero.

🧵

thegreentransition.substack.com/p/fusion-power
When discussing breakthroughs in fusion power, it is worth remembering the running joke that “it’s the energy source of the future—always has been, always will be”.

Promising unlimited energy and delivering it are two different things.

2/
First, what is the difference between fission and fusion?

In nuclear fission (the technology used at all existing nuclear power plants), big atoms release energy when they split into smaller fragments.

3/
Read 16 tweets
Benedict Barclay Profile picture
Nov 28, 2022
I've done a quick graph to show what's happening with Danish hospital admissions for RSV.

Each bar is a cohort, defined by the RSV season when they were 0-12 months old. So the left-hand bar shows hospital admissions for <1s in 2015/16 (blue), 1-2s in 16/17 (orange), etc.

1/3
The cohort that "missed out" on being exposed to RSV in 2020/21 was admitted to hospital in higher numbers than usual aged 12-24 months (orange), but that mainly reflected the size of the wave in 2021/22. Their *proportion* of admissions wasn't much higher than normal.

2/3
Overall, in the first three years of their lives, they have been much less likely to be hospitalized from RSV than a normal cohort.

The cohorts being admitted in large numbers are the 2021/22 and 2022/23 ones. Remember their bars will continue growing (particularly 22/23).

3/3
Read 5 tweets
Benedict Barclay Profile picture
Nov 26, 2022
A few random thoughts.

Like other countries, Sweden had virtually no RSV cases in 2020/21, followed by a very big wave in 21/22.

If you use Sweden as an example of a country that didn't lock down, I'm not sure how you blame the current RSV waves on lockdowns.
In many countries, the total number of RSV cases over the period 2019-22 has been higher than normal, not lower than normal.

So you can't explain the current high numbers of paediatric hospitalizations simply by a "lack" of cases in previous years.
Sweeping statements about how the current paediatric care crisis is the inevitable and self-evident result of "inmunity debt caused by lockdowns" is therefore unhelpful.

It seems to be about proving you were right about lockdowns in 2020, not understanding what's happening now.
Read 7 tweets
Benedict Barclay Profile picture
Nov 24, 2022
RSV in Denmark.

First image is cases, second one hospital admissions. The last two seasons stand out as much higher than previous ones.

What's going on?

🧵
Here are the numbers for the past 4 seasons. As has been widely reported, there were virtually no cases and admissions in the 2020/21 season.

So you would expect more cases and admissions than normal in 2021/22. Call it "immunity debt" if you like (I don't much).

2/
Going back further, there were ~2,200-4,500 cases and ~1,300-2,500 admissions per season in the years 2015/16-2019/20.

In 2021/22 there were more than 11,000 cases and 4,000 admissions. Over 2 seasons' worth, so ostensibly enough to "repay" all of the debt.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Benedict Barclay Profile picture
Oct 14, 2022
Optimistic take:

It's hospital-acquired infections. (Obviously bad, but it's a *known* bad.)

Neutral:

Older people have fewer prior infections, so less immunity ATM. It will even out.

Pessimistic:

The older you are, the weaker the immune response, and the faster it wanes.
I don't really buy the optimistic take, as that steady gradient up the age groups doesn't match likelihood of spending time in hospital, which is high amongst the very young and, mainly, old to very old.
So I think it's more down to immunity against infection.

On the whole, older people have fewer prior infections, but there's not a linear relationship like that.

Which leaves increasingly weak/short-lasting immunity with rising age as the most plausible explanation? Hope not.
Read 5 tweets

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