Thread by @Halla_aho

1/11 The media ask politicians and politicians ask experts for predictions on how the war in Ukraine will proceed and whether it will end this year.

Predictions are useless. There have been many over the past year, and their accuracy has been poor.

2/11 But more than that: predictions are dangerous because they guide our actions. The slow, timid and inadequate reaction of the West to the Russian invasion was to a large extent based on predictions that Russia would defeat Ukraine quickly anyway.

3/11 Instead of asking what will happen, we should ask what we want to happen and then act accordingly. There is no future but the one that we create by our actions and choices. Things do not happen independently; we make them happen.

4/11 The war will not end if Russia is not defeated on the battlefield. If (and as) we want Russia to lose this war and refrain from starting the next one, we must do things that further these goals.

5/11 We are doing the right things but we are doing them too slowly and gradually. Russia has the will, the capacity and the intention to continue the war for a very long time. It has no rational goals in Ukraine. The destruction is not collateral, it is the goal in itself.

6/11 Therefore it is not enough to give Ukraine the bare minimum it needs to slow down the invasion. Ukraine needs weapons and help to squeeze the Russians out of all occupied territories. A Russian defeat, not a stalemate, is needed to end this war and prevent the next one.

7/11 The West, and Germany in particular, must this year stop asking the Russians what weapons we are allowed to send to Ukraine. It is obvious they do not want Ukraine to receive help. It is very dumb to ask them.

8/11 The aid must be massive and overwhelming to make it clear to the Russians - to the troops on the field if not to the Kremlin - that their situation is hopeless in the long term. Our constant hesitation encourages the Russians and gives them hope that time is on their side.

9/11 In October, I proposed EU countries pool their modern tanks and send them to Ukraine. I am very glad such a project is gaining support, and I have high hopes for the Ramstein meeting today.

https://twitter.com/Halla_aho/status/1579450487468097539

10/11 But tanks alone are not a solution. Ukraine needs long-range missiles, artillery, aircraft, helicopters. Anything that causes maximum devastation on the horde in Ukraine and sends the Russians the message that they are - to quote "Full Metal Jacket" - in a world of shit.

11/11 Other things on this years to-do list:

a) An international tribunal to try the Russian leadership, including Mr Putin, for their crimes. This is taking far too long.

b) A legal framework to confiscate the frozen Russian assets abroad. This is taking far too long.