1. There were (allegedly) hundreds of thousands Chechens willing to be a part of Russia 2. Yeltsin bombed them to ashes Mariupol-style 3. "Not clear what was an alternative"
How exactly are these guys different from Putin? Same crazy, murderous mindset
Fact
Modern Russia is more of a product of Chechen Wars than of Putin's personality. Remilitarization, buildup of security state, they all started due to the First War. By the late 1990s Yeltsin was actively looking for a KGB heir. All his three last PMs were from state security
Moscow liberals want to portray Putin as an "accident". He was not. The system chose Putin, not the other way around. Yeltsin elevated Putin from nothing, started another war to facilitate his succession and used the lowkey nuclear blackmail when Clinton tried to argue
Putin's brand became too toxic. He made too many mistakes and continuation of his rule puts the entire system under risk. So @navalny's succession became the hill to die on for the entire little Moscow race of overlords: "liberals"/nationalists who benefit from empire's existence
@navalny Moscow liberals and nationalists do not support @navalny because they see him as a "candidate for change". It's the other way around. They stand for him because they see his succession as a "return to normality". Pretty disgusting normality I must say
Facts:
1. Global narrative on Russia is shaped by the major Western media/scholars 2. Both journos and scholars are (mostly) clueless. Most have no other sources in Russia other than the Moscow establishment 3. The Moscow establishment is interested in minimal, cosmetic changes
4. Moscow establishment is mortally terrified of the system being dismantled. It would undermine their privilege 5. They provide Western media/academia with facts selected and interpretations constructed to justify the minimal change narrative. They must be cosmetic, they argue
6. Since most of the Western media/academia have no other sources than the Moscow establishment they form their opinion based on facts selected and interpretations constructed by the latter. Respectable Western institutions do perspective laundering for the Moscow establishment
7. Since the narrative promoted by the mainstream Western media largely amounts to the laundered perspective of the Moscow establishment, the Westerners are genuinely astonished with either Ukrainians/Russian minorities/regionalists questioning the said "objective" narrative
8. Hence the differing views on @navalny's imperial succession. Those who see the imperial system as an asset will fight for him till the last breath. That's their only chance, realistically speaking. Those who see it as a liability or threat tend to hold very different opinions
9. @navalny'st platform is the platform of the cosmetic changes. Since the Moscow establishment interested in only cosmetic changes hold the monopoly of representation, their perspective becomes the mainstream Western perspective. Nobody else is given voice, for the most part
@navalny 10. The question of @navalny's succession is the question of cosmetic vs fundamental changes of the Russian sociopolitical system. If you don't get it, you won't get why so many Ukrainians/Russian minorities stand against it while the Moscow "liberals" - for it
11. In my next thread I'll show how @navalny and his team are weaponising the "anti-corruption" rhetorics (mixed with factual lies and the wildest claims) to buttress the imperial system. I will also show their strategy of putting the blame for Putinism on minorities
Cheers
PS @k_sonin "There are many pro-Russians there. I don't see what choice we had except for bombing the hell out of them" is a @UChicago Professor. Good example of what kinds of perspectives are being routinely legitimised by the authority of the Western academic institutions
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What I am saying is that "capitalist reforms" are a buzzword devoid of any actual meaning, and a buzzword that obfuscated rather than explains. Specifically, it is fusing radically different policies taken under the radically different circumstances (and timing!) into one - purely for ideological purposes
It can be argued, for example, that starting from the 1980s, China has undertaken massive socialist reforms, specifically in infrastructure, and in basic (mother) industries, such as steel, petrochemical and chemical and, of course, power
The primary weakness of this argument is that being true, historically speaking, it is just false in the context of American politics where the “communism” label has been so over-used (and misapplied) that it lost all of its former power:
“We want X”
“No, that is communism”
“We want communism”
Basically, when you use a label like “communism” as a deus ex machina winning you every argument, you simultaneously re-define its meaning. And when you use it to beat off every popular socio economic demand (e.g. universal healthcare), you re-define communism as a synthesis of all the popular socio economic demands
Historical communism = forced industrial development in a poor, predominantly agrarian country, funded through expropriation of the peasantry
(With the most disastrous economic and humanitarian consequences)
Many are trying to explain his success with some accidental factors such as his “personal charisma”, Cuomo's weakness etc
Still, I think there may be some fundamental factors here. A longue durée shift, and a very profound one
1. Public outrage does not work anymore
If you look at Zohran, he is calm, constructive, and rarely raises his voice. I think one thing that Mamdani - but almost no one else in the American political space is getting - is that the public is getting tired of the outrage
Outrage, anger, righteous indignation have all been the primary drivers of American politics for quite a while
For a while, this tactics worked
Indeed, when everyone around is polite, and soft (and insincere), freaking out was a smart thing to do. It could help you get noticed
People don’t really understand causal links. We pretend we do (“X results in Y”). But we actually don’t. Most explanations (= descriptions of causal structures) are fake.
There may be no connection between X and Y at all. The cause is just misattributed.
Or, perhaps, X does indeed result in Y. but only under a certain (and unknown!) set of conditions that remains totally and utterly opaque to us. So, X->Y is only a part of the equation
And so on
I like to think of a hypothetical Stone Age farmer who started farming, and it worked amazingly, and his entire community adopted his lifestyle, and many generations followed it and prospered and multiplied, until all suddenly wiped out in a new ice age
1. Normative Islamophobia that used to define the public discourse being the most acceptable form of racial & ethnic bigotry in the West, is receding. It is not so much dying as rather - failing to replicate. It is not that the old people change their views as that the young do not absorb their prejudice any longer.
In fact, I incline to think it has been failing to replicate for a while, it is just that we have not been paying attention
Again, the change of vibe does not happen at once. The Muslim scare may still find (some) audience among the more rigid elderly, who are not going to change their views. But for the youth, it is starting to sound as archaic as the Catholic scare of know nothings
Out of date
2. What is particularly interesting regarding Mamdani's victory, is his support base. It would not be much of an exaggeration to say that its core is comprised of the young (and predominantly white) middle classes, with a nearly equal representation of men and women
What does Musk vs Trump affair teach us about the general patterns of human history? Well, first of all it shows that the ancient historians were right. They grasped something about nature of politics that our contemporaries simply can’t.
Let me give you an example. The Arab conquest of Spain
According to a popular medieval/early modern interpretation, its primary cause was the lust of Visigoth king Roderic. Aroused by the beautiful daughter of his vassal and ally, count Julian, he took advantage of her
Disgruntled, humiliated Julian allied himself with the Arabs and opens them the gates of Spain.
Entire kingdom lost, all because the head of state caused a personal injury to someone important.