Today @EmmanuelMacron presented the Military Planning Law. A 🧵on what he chose to emphasize regarding the strategic context and what this means for the model of the armed forces: no longer an expeditionary force but designed for #highintensity.
twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…
1/ First, what is the Military Planning Law? It allocates the budget for the 🇫🇷 armed forces for usually 6 years. The one @EmmanuelMacron is to submit to the French Parliament is for the period 2024-2030 (while the ongoing one was from 2019 to 2025 but will be shorten by a year).
2/ In his speech, the president considers the efforts for the armed forces must match the dangers, which are "considerable."
The 2022 National Strategic Review offered already a strategic analysis and the challenges. The MPL is about meeting them
sgdsn.gouv.fr/uploads/2022/1…
The 2022 National Strategic Review offered already a strategic analysis and the challenges. The MPL is about meeting them
sgdsn.gouv.fr/uploads/2022/1…
The MPL is necessary to avoid "fighting yesterday's battles": "facing the war's metamorphoses, France has and will have armed forces ready to face the century's peril."
3/Strategic context:
"The international law order gives away to a state of nature btw nations", exposing particularly 🇫🇷 overseas territories.
New threats (climate, energy & tech) rise while other risks didn't disappear (terrorism).
"The international law order gives away to a state of nature btw nations", exposing particularly 🇫🇷 overseas territories.
New threats (climate, energy & tech) rise while other risks didn't disappear (terrorism).
"What characterizes this decade is this accumulation of threats." "Crises add up and don't come one after another."
He did not used the Davos buzzword #polycrisis though (a close one).
He did not used the Davos buzzword #polycrisis though (a close one).
These conflicts (both old and newer ones) take a new shape "fluctuating between sophistication (tech race) and brutal simplicity (in Ukraine with the return of scenes which we believe belonged to Verdun or Somme imagery" (WWI). 
Two traps to avoid: "draining resources by only focusing on cutting-edge technologies"; "not investing in them."
On this, and for French speakers, I would recommend this podcast:
irsem.fr/le-collimateur…
On this, and for French speakers, I would recommend this podcast:
irsem.fr/le-collimateur…
"What characterizes the new conflicts of this century, it's the jamming between open and explicit conflicts and repeated, systemic and pernicious malice."
From these risks, need to prepare, and this is where the Military Planning Law comes in.
From these risks, need to prepare, and this is where the Military Planning Law comes in.
4/ The 2019-2025 MPL had one goal: "repair our armed forces." Once done, "we will transform them," which is the ambition on the 2024-2030 MPL"
The 2019-2025 MPL had a budget of €295bn, for 2024-2030 the objective is €413 bn. From 2019 to 2030, the budget would have thus doubled
The 2019-2025 MPL had a budget of €295bn, for 2024-2030 the objective is €413 bn. From 2019 to 2030, the budget would have thus doubled
5/ The challenges for tomorrow:
➡️"Continuing to defend permanent interests: the territory, in particular the overseas territories"; "the security of our close neighborhood, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Balkans, Middle East to Africa, and the fight against climate change."
➡️"Continuing to defend permanent interests: the territory, in particular the overseas territories"; "the security of our close neighborhood, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Balkans, Middle East to Africa, and the fight against climate change."
➡️ "Adapting to contemporary demands of robust and credible nuclear deterrence;"
➡️"Defending our interests where new forms of conflicts take place;"
➡️"Thinking differently our partnerships and alliances while remaining a leader in Europe and a credible ally within NATO."
➡️"Defending our interests where new forms of conflicts take place;"
➡️"Thinking differently our partnerships and alliances while remaining a leader in Europe and a credible ally within NATO."
Still on partnerships: "Making the most of exceptional relationships built with countries like Greece, Egypt, United Arab Emirates or India."
"Continuing to deepen structural partnerships, like the ones we have with Germany, the UK, Italy or Spain."
Not once the 🇺🇸 mentioned!
"Continuing to deepen structural partnerships, like the ones we have with Germany, the UK, Italy or Spain."
Not once the 🇺🇸 mentioned!
"Ensuring, if need be, France ability to build and command a coalition with its partners to defend European and allied interests."
#Strategicautonomy or #Europeansovereignty not mentioned once, but it's everywhere.
#Strategicautonomy or #Europeansovereignty not mentioned once, but it's everywhere.
6/ A new armed forces' model:
It would "privilege coherence over the number, reactivity without sacrificing endurance."
1⃣The focus will be to consolidate "the core of our sovereignty" while the "previous MPL focused on expeditionary capability and the fight against terrorism."
It would "privilege coherence over the number, reactivity without sacrificing endurance."
1⃣The focus will be to consolidate "the core of our sovereignty" while the "previous MPL focused on expeditionary capability and the fight against terrorism."
➡️ Reinforcing nuclear deterrence and "better explaining its purpose to whoever is wondering."
➡️ Strengthening the posture of stationed forces which need increased intelligence capabilities: the MPL "will massively increase the intelligence budget by 60%."
➡️ Strengthening the posture of stationed forces which need increased intelligence capabilities: the MPL "will massively increase the intelligence budget by 60%."
Also a need to increase monitoring capabilities (drones, additional capabilities to act in particular in French overseas territories).
➡️ Capacity to resist and of resilience, "first in the cyber domain." The objective is to "double our capacity to address major cyber attacks."
On the resilience of the Nation, objective to "double operational reserve."
On the resilience of the Nation, objective to "double operational reserve."
2⃣The "pivot to high-intensity":
Transforming the model also regards the ability to "operate in contested environments, facing seasoned adversaries, sometimes technologically formidable."
Mention of readiness/reactivity/endurance (exercises, military stockpiles, logistics...).
Transforming the model also regards the ability to "operate in contested environments, facing seasoned adversaries, sometimes technologically formidable."
Mention of readiness/reactivity/endurance (exercises, military stockpiles, logistics...).
On capabilities:
"All Rafale"; modernizing army forces; increasing the might and protection of French frigates; developing the new aircraft carrier; innovating on guided munitions and broadening the use of drones; investing on quantic and AI.
"All Rafale"; modernizing army forces; increasing the might and protection of French frigates; developing the new aircraft carrier; innovating on guided munitions and broadening the use of drones; investing on quantic and AI.
https://twitter.com/MarineNationale/status/1580504631540469760?s=20&t=Q_2hXGQpYGUo-w1N-FXdlg
Effort on operational support.
Mention of SCORPION and the Future Air Combat System with 🇩🇪&🇪🇸.
Investing on capabilities with great added value: ground-based air defense system (capa to ↗️ by 50%), long-range strikes, suppression of enemy air defenses and anti-submarine warfare.
Mention of SCORPION and the Future Air Combat System with 🇩🇪&🇪🇸.
Investing on capabilities with great added value: ground-based air defense system (capa to ↗️ by 50%), long-range strikes, suppression of enemy air defenses and anti-submarine warfare.
3⃣Third pivot on "shared spaces" to face "ambiguous actions, interferences, intimidation, malign activities" etc.
Effort to increase 🇫🇷 capabilities to monitor, react and to take initiative, addressing clear strategic messaging in exoatmospheric, digital and maritime spaces.
Effort to increase 🇫🇷 capabilities to monitor, react and to take initiative, addressing clear strategic messaging in exoatmospheric, digital and maritime spaces.
In space 3 guiding missions: monitoring, communication, protection.
Digital space: attract talents; innovation.
Maritime space: protecting the EZZ. Reference also on the need to protect critical maritime infrastructures.
Marine Nationale pic (translated by Naval News)
Digital space: attract talents; innovation.
Maritime space: protecting the EZZ. Reference also on the need to protect critical maritime infrastructures.
Marine Nationale pic (translated by Naval News)
A new strategy on overseas territories is underway.
4⃣Partnerships with a strong European flavor: "not only treaties which bind us but also a certain idea of the world."
Great progress: EDF, PESCO, IE2, Takuba, bilateral partnerships (CaMo project with Belgium).
4⃣Partnerships with a strong European flavor: "not only treaties which bind us but also a certain idea of the world."
Great progress: EDF, PESCO, IE2, Takuba, bilateral partnerships (CaMo project with Belgium).
"If tomorrow, a great partner [hello 🇺🇸...] must look elsewhere, we must be able to act with the Europeans, within NATO or not, and if necessary, to assume command and lead major operations." 20,000 🇫🇷 soldiers could be deployed.
For new promising partnerships: Indonesia.
[END]
For new promising partnerships: Indonesia.
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