Frances 'Cassandra' Coppola Profile picture
Jan 20, 2023 17 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Dear @SBF_FTX. This is not a balance sheet. A balance sheet doesn't record "balances", it records assets on one side of the sheet and liabilities plus equity on the other. The "balance" is whether the totals on the two sides agree. #basicaccounting Excerpt from Sam Bankman-Fried's substack showing what he ca
Dear @SBF_FTX. Since FTX was channelling customer funds to Alameda, we already know FTX was not dependent on Alameda for liquidity. Where is the chart showing Alameda's dependence on FTX?
Dear @SBF_FTX. Revenue is not profits. Chart labelled "FTX International Daily Revenue" p
Dear @SBF_FTX. Valuing assets on your company's balance sheet according to "your model" is known as "mark to model" (or "mark to fantasy"). It is only acceptable if the market for the assets is too small for price discovery. "Over the course of 2021, Alameda’s Net Asset Value s
Dear @SBF_FTX. The problem with marking assets to fantasy is that you end up with wholly unrealistic valuations, and as a result you develop wholly irrational beliefs such as "an $8bn shortfall of liquid assets wasn't risky". (Also this isn't a balance sheet, as previously noted)
And this is what happens when your marks to fantasy unwind.
Switching substack posts. Dear @SBF_FTX, as noted before, this is not a balance sheet. It therefore does not, and cannot, show FTX US "overcapitalised by roughly $350m".
@SBF_FTX Dear @SBF_FTX. Contrary to the claim in your substack post, S&C's presentation does appear to include $428m in FTX US's bank accounts as an asset. It is the cash balance for the WRS silo and is included in the total cash balance of $1.7bn.
I admit I had to do some hunting to find it, as it's not immediately apparent that WRS silo includes FTX US. @SBF_FTX says he only had an hour to write that post, so maybe he didn't have time to look properly?
Alternatively, maybe @SBF_FTX misunderstood the executive summary. Total cash reported in this summary included $428m from WRS silo, which includes FTX US. The summary also reported $181m of digital assets (NOT cash) for FTX US.
The shortfalls are clearly in digital assets, not cash.

The $428m cash in WRS silo does not entirely belong to FTX US. It includes $128m of primarily restricted cash in LedgerX, which wouldn't be available to disburse to FTX US customers (tho @SBF_FTX seems to think it should).
Here's the evidence that @SBF_FTX thinks the restricted cash in LedgerX should be available to disburse to FTX US customers. In this spreadsheet, he's counted it in the $428m cash "in FTX US bank accounts".
In the substack post, @SBF_FTX says he doesn't know what the restricted cash at LedgerX is. Twenty seconds of Googling would have told him. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@SBF_FTX Dear @SBF_FTX, I'm afraid S&C's data does not confirm your claim that FTX US was solvent at the time of the Ch 11 filing. At that time, $250m of cash in LedgerX was set aside for a CFTC filing and could not be counted as part of FTX US's assets. So FTX US was probably insolvent.
Furthermore, customer balances are unlikely to be the only liabilities. Whether FTX US is solvent depends on whether total assets exceed total liabilities, not whether total assets exceed customer balances.
To be fair to @SBF_FTX, confusion between customer balances and total liabilities seems to be endemic in cryptoland. I do wish crypto people would learn basic accounting.
Related - the fact that total liabilities can be much more than customer balances is the reason why the Merkle tree "proof of reserves" beloved of several crypto exchanges proves absolutely nothing.

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More from @Frances_Coppola

Sep 9
This is idiotic. The hostages are in Gaza. Israel controls all movement of goods and people in and out of Gaza, and its military campaign creates serious risks for NGO staff. Clearly Israel must consent to allow Red Cross staff into Gaza and make it safe for them to do so. We identified only one BBC editorial reference to the Red Cross failing to visit hostages, and remarkably the BBC appeared to equally place the blame on Israel . The article reported that the Red Cross have been: “asking to visit the hostages, deliver medicalsupplies, and bring newsto desperate families. None of that can happen unless both Hamas and Israel agree”.  The suggestion that access to the Hostages is reliant on Israeli consent seems baseless.
This is idiotic too. The reason the BBC (and other news organisations) preface "Gaza health ministry" with "Hamas-run" is to issue a content warning on the information provided by the health ministry, not to validate Hamas. The BBC frequently refers to the Hamas ‘run’ or ‘controlled’ Gaza Health Ministry. We have found:  a) 593 mentions of Hamas within 10 words of ‘health’ and ‘ministry’ (in other words, 4.8% of all mentions of Hamas); and b) 440 of the BBC items mention Hamas within 10 words of ‘health’ and ‘ministry’ (in other words, 29.3% of all items mentioning Hamas).  Thus, Hamas is more likely to be referred to in connection with a Health Ministry than as a ‘proscribed terrorist organisation’.
I really don't know where to start with this ludicrous piece of analysis. The ages of casualties is factual reporting, as are family relationships if known. Reporting child deaths does of course evoke sympathy, but that's not a reason not to report them.


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Read 11 tweets
Sep 4
I am reminded of them every time I enter @RochesterCathed and see the shadows of the paintings that were hacked off the walls, plastered over or whitewashed, and the banner in the Quire listing the Bishops of Rochester that starts with John Fisher and ends with Nicholas Ridley.
John Fisher was executed by Henry VIII for refusing to recognise him as head of the Church in England and opposing his marriage to Anne Boleyn. He is a Saint in the Roman Catholic Church.
Nicholas Ridley was burned at the stake by Henry's daughter Mary for denying the Roman Catholic doctrine of transubstantiation. He is one of the "Oxford Martyrs" of the Church of England.
Read 11 tweets
Aug 28
There can be no private sector solution to the crisis engulfing water companies that does not involve very large increases in customer bills. Nationalise them.
These companies provide a finite resource to a restricted population. Their revenue comes almost entirely from customer payments. The idea that shareholders can have high returns AND customers low bills necessarily means inadequate investment and/or unsustainable debt.
For over thirty years, water companies and regulators shut their eyes to the long-term impossibility of delivering high returns to shareholders while keeping customer bills low. But now the wheels are coming off.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 27
Blimey. And you thought Thames Water was complicated. This is Southern Water. Topco (Greensands Holdings Ltd) is registered in Jersey. Image
That strange arrangement at the bottom of the chart is a Whole Business Securitisation similar to that in Thames Water. And as with Thames Water, there is external debt in the parasitical extractive structure built on top of the regulated utility.
Here's a helpful table explaining the purpose of each level in this structure, along with how it has changed since Ofwat stomped on it in 2022 (closed down its Cayman SPVs, basically, though it doesn't explicitly say this here) Image
Read 16 tweets
Aug 19
I watched the BBC Storyville documentary about Yosef Weitz again last night. Interesting detail I missed the first time: clip of an Israeli academic saying that Ben-Gurion commissioned an academic research paper to "prove" that Palestinians chose to leave in 1948... 1/
... he emphasised that Ben-Gurion didn't want genuine academic research to find out the reasons why Palestinians left, he wanted an academic paper to support his story that Palestinians freely chose to leave and were not driven out by the IDF. Astonishing. /2
I have been told this story many times by Israeli accounts. I found it hard to believe, because it seemed inconsistent with what I was reading about Zionist military action in 1948. People fleeing in fear of their lives seemed much more likely. /3
Read 14 tweets
Aug 6
I read their amicus brief and can summarise it thus:

"We talked to our friends in the IDF and they told us the charges were unfounded".
The same group produced a report on the 2014 Gaza war. embassies.gov.il/MFA/FOREIGNPOL…
The report concluded:
"Israel’s efforts were entirely necessary and justified in the defence of that country’s national security. Israel’s conduct in the 2014 Gaza Conflict met and in some respects exceeded the highest standards we set for our own nations’ militaries."
Read 13 tweets

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