Frances 'Cassandra' Coppola Profile picture
Jan 20, 2023 17 tweets 9 min read Read on X
Dear @SBF_FTX. This is not a balance sheet. A balance sheet doesn't record "balances", it records assets on one side of the sheet and liabilities plus equity on the other. The "balance" is whether the totals on the two sides agree. #basicaccounting Excerpt from Sam Bankman-Fried's substack showing what he ca
Dear @SBF_FTX. Since FTX was channelling customer funds to Alameda, we already know FTX was not dependent on Alameda for liquidity. Where is the chart showing Alameda's dependence on FTX?
Dear @SBF_FTX. Revenue is not profits. Chart labelled "FTX International Daily Revenue" p
Dear @SBF_FTX. Valuing assets on your company's balance sheet according to "your model" is known as "mark to model" (or "mark to fantasy"). It is only acceptable if the market for the assets is too small for price discovery. "Over the course of 2021, Alameda’s Net Asset Value s
Dear @SBF_FTX. The problem with marking assets to fantasy is that you end up with wholly unrealistic valuations, and as a result you develop wholly irrational beliefs such as "an $8bn shortfall of liquid assets wasn't risky". (Also this isn't a balance sheet, as previously noted)
And this is what happens when your marks to fantasy unwind.
Switching substack posts. Dear @SBF_FTX, as noted before, this is not a balance sheet. It therefore does not, and cannot, show FTX US "overcapitalised by roughly $350m".
@SBF_FTX Dear @SBF_FTX. Contrary to the claim in your substack post, S&C's presentation does appear to include $428m in FTX US's bank accounts as an asset. It is the cash balance for the WRS silo and is included in the total cash balance of $1.7bn.
I admit I had to do some hunting to find it, as it's not immediately apparent that WRS silo includes FTX US. @SBF_FTX says he only had an hour to write that post, so maybe he didn't have time to look properly?
Alternatively, maybe @SBF_FTX misunderstood the executive summary. Total cash reported in this summary included $428m from WRS silo, which includes FTX US. The summary also reported $181m of digital assets (NOT cash) for FTX US.
The shortfalls are clearly in digital assets, not cash.

The $428m cash in WRS silo does not entirely belong to FTX US. It includes $128m of primarily restricted cash in LedgerX, which wouldn't be available to disburse to FTX US customers (tho @SBF_FTX seems to think it should).
Here's the evidence that @SBF_FTX thinks the restricted cash in LedgerX should be available to disburse to FTX US customers. In this spreadsheet, he's counted it in the $428m cash "in FTX US bank accounts".
In the substack post, @SBF_FTX says he doesn't know what the restricted cash at LedgerX is. Twenty seconds of Googling would have told him. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@SBF_FTX Dear @SBF_FTX, I'm afraid S&C's data does not confirm your claim that FTX US was solvent at the time of the Ch 11 filing. At that time, $250m of cash in LedgerX was set aside for a CFTC filing and could not be counted as part of FTX US's assets. So FTX US was probably insolvent.
Furthermore, customer balances are unlikely to be the only liabilities. Whether FTX US is solvent depends on whether total assets exceed total liabilities, not whether total assets exceed customer balances.
To be fair to @SBF_FTX, confusion between customer balances and total liabilities seems to be endemic in cryptoland. I do wish crypto people would learn basic accounting.
Related - the fact that total liabilities can be much more than customer balances is the reason why the Merkle tree "proof of reserves" beloved of several crypto exchanges proves absolutely nothing.

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More from @Frances_Coppola

May 10
I think Tim has missed the significance of the new Pope's choice of name. Let me explain.
First, let's backtrack to Pope Francis's election. He chose his papal name in honour of St. Francis of Assissi. St. Francis is my patron saint, so I know a bit about him. 1/
St. Francis had a devoted disciple and close companion, who witnessed his stigmata and nursed him in his last illness. His name was Brother Leo. 2/
Read 15 tweets
Apr 28
I wrote a post documenting the deaths by fire in Gaza, and observed that this meets the dictionary definition of "holocaust". Predictably, someone on Substack notes accused me of antisemitism. *sigh* /1
True, I didn't mention Oct 7th. I've covered it in previous pieces, so didn't think I needed to discuss it again. But he insisted that Oct 7th must feature in every piece about the Gaza conflagration. He accused me of "bad editorial practice" for omitting it. 2/
And because I dared to use the word "holocaust" (without capitalization and with an indefinite article) about the Gaza conflagration, and called the evil men responsible (on both sides) the "spawn of Moloch", he accused me of "conjuring older tropes". 3/
Read 11 tweets
Apr 24
MP: "Do you believe that the Palestinians are entitled to a state?"
Hausdorff: "Self-determination does not give one a right to a state in international law."
MP: "I'd like to know whether Natasha Hausdorff believes that Palestinians have the right to a state?"
Hausdorff: "Palestinians have self-determination in autonomy. So according to international law, no".

Hausdorff shot herself in the foot. If "autonomy" is sufficient for Palestinians and they have no right to a Palestinian state, then autonomy must also be sufficient for Jews and they have no right to a Jewish state.

After all, as Hausdorff herself says, "the same rules have to apply".
I think Hausdorff's application of uti possidetis juris also undermines the legitimacy of a Jewish state. She said uti possidetis juris "sets the start point" for the new state. When the British mandate ended and Israel declared independence, Israel was a majority Arab state.
The Jewish-majority state that Israel became after the ethnic cleansing of 80% of the non-Jewish population is not the same as the state established under uti possidetis juris.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 22
The present State of Israel is a racist apartheid state and has been for its entire existence.

Truth is not antisemitism.
The State of Israel has been starving people in Gaza to a greater or lesser extent for 25 years. themintmagazine.com/malnutrition-i…
The State of Israel has been torturing, abusing and repressing Palestinians for at least half a century. amnesty.org.uk/files/2018-09/…
Read 14 tweets
Apr 7
In my latest piece at @themintmag, I've outlined what I think the real purpose of Trump's tariffs is. Or rather, purposes. 1/
There are three different tariffs:
- the 10% universal tariff
- the "trade deficit" tariff, determined by country
- the product tariff, e.g. 25% on all car imports
As I explain in my article, each has a different purpose. /2 themintmagazine.com/trumps-card-wh…
The 10% tariff is a fee for use of the international dollar system, or perhaps an insurance premium. Trump wants the world to pay for its reliance on the dollar.
themintmagazine.com/trumps-card-wh…
Read 10 tweets
Feb 21
Actually, you've set up a new company called Reform 2025, of which you and Zia Yusuf are sole directors. It's a company limited by guarantee and has no shareholders. But it's not "owned" by its members. 1/ …te.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/162607… x.com/Nigel_Farage/s…
Your old company, Reform UK Party Ltd, still exists. It is a private limited company. You have sold your shareholding in this company to your new company, Reform 2025 Ltd. …te.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/116948…
Your members paid their subscriptions to your old company. But you did not sell your shareholding to them, @Nigel_Farage. You sold it to your new company, to which they have paid nothing.
Read 4 tweets

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