The @DeptofWar 2025 China Military Power Report is finally out.
It chronicles shifts in 🇨🇳 rhetoric toward Taiwan, advances in AI despite U.S. export controls, and radical expansion in aircraft carriers & nuclear posture.
🧵 of highlights (1/18):
2/ WAY MORE CARRIERS:
The report clarifies publicly for the first time that the PLAN intends to operate NINE aircraft carriers by 2035 — a 50% increase over often-cited estimate of "6" by that timeframe, which would put its carrier fleet just behind that of the United States.
3/ CO-ORBITAL ASATs:
For the first time, the U.S. government names specific Chinese spacecraft it suspects are capable of on-orbit anti-satellite operations, including the TJS-3's movements in geosynchronous orbit.
🇺🇸 The @WhiteHouse has just released its "AI Action Plan" — possibly its most impactful strategy yet.
After years spent watching DC fumble tech policy, this document is different.
It reads like it was written by people who understand both the technology and the stakes.
🧵
2/ The framing gets straight to the point:
"The United States is in a race to achieve global dominance in AI. Whoever has the largest AI ecosystem will set global AI standards and reap broad economic and military benefits."
No more "competing while we cooperate."
3/ The U.S. approach to AI will be guided by three pillars:
- Accelerate AI Innovation
- Build American AI Infrastructure
- Lead in International AI Diplomacy and Security
Each is designed to address real pain points and extend 🇺🇸's lead.
I recently returned to DC after a week spent in Taipei — a fascinating time to be on-island amid RightsCon, PLA live-fire exercises, and a seismic shift in U.S. policy toward Ukraine.
This was somehow my first visit to 🇹🇼, so I wanted to share a few high-level impressions 🧵:
1⃣ It’s one thing to read about, and quite another to experience in person:
Taiwan's democracy is an indelible feature of its society, culture, and place in the world.
In my short time there, I had pamphlets foisted upon me by @amnesty canvassers, walked through crowds of protestors gathered outside government ministries, and watched as Taiwanese gathered to observe the 78th anniversary of the 228 Massacre.
I'm leaving the U.S. government after 2 years as @StateDept's main contact with the Chinese Embassy in Washington — the most challenging and rewarding experience of my life.
More soon on what's next. But first, a few thoughts on diplomacy and America’s role in the world:
2/ I’m sad to leave what must be the most interesting job in Washington, and a team that includes some of the United States' most talented and devoted public servants.
I am and always will be grateful to countless mentors who taught me the American way of diplomacy.
3/ But these 2 years spent helping build and launch @USAsiaPacific’s “China House” have aged me a decade.
After serving as an Economic, Tech, and Political Officer — and managing nearly 300 conversations between the governments — it's time to pass the torch to someone else.