Thread by @MyLordBebo

KIA calculation: BBC calculated Russian losses and found 12.200 killed by the 23rd Jan. They assume the real number is at max 60% higher in reality.

This brings us to 12.200 + 60% is a total of 19.520 dead Russian soldiers in 11 months.
-> roughly 1780 per month

1/7 -> Ukraine

EU’s Ursula von der Leyen said 100.000 Ukrainian soldiers died by 30th November, basically in 9 months since Feb 24th.

That brings us to 11.100 people per month.

-> Roughly 6.25x times higher than Russian losses.

2/7 -> Germans intelligence (BND)

To corroborate the high Ukrainian losses we have the German intelligence agency BND. They say losses are in three digit numbers daily.

And above, Ursula told us 11.100 per month, so divided by 30 days it is roughly 370 dead per day.
-> sounds about right

3/7 -> Ukrainian MoD

https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1616443962205810693

23rd Jan Ukraine’s MoD claimed to have killed 121.480 Russians.

Let’s take numbers from above:
- 11.100 dead Ukrainian soldiers monthly
- multiply by 11 months
= 122.000 KIA

-> Ukrainian MoD’s claim of 121.480 killed Russians is a self report on killed Ukrainians!

4/7 -> bonus

They project a lot, but that they self report their losses as killed Russians is weird.

5/7 -> Wagner bonus: Daily Express on

PS: That BBC article is tough to find and needs translation, so before you start calling this fake news, here it is:

bbc.com/russian/featur…

Wagner

“Roughly 43.000 Russian mercenary fighters of the Wagner Group have either been ‘killed, gone missing or deserted’ the frontline, the head of a Russian NGO protecting the rights of convicts has claimed.”

-> Let’s compare this to BBC’s numbers

6/7 -> BBC on Wagner

So far BBC identified 450 dead Wagner soldiers.

I am not sure how to extrapolate, but the Daily Express claims 43.000. That means BBC is off by 95 times, what is impossible.

-> So Wagner is not sending human waves after all? … Or these waves are super efficient?

7/7

Thoughts pls
@imetatronink @LogKa11 @LvivTyler @fabushka_ @GeromanAT @baronitaigas @witte_sergei @Chadyrov11 @TobiAyodele @Blackrussiantv @200_zoka @DagnyTaggart963 @squatsons @mdfzeh @failure1991 @SNMilitary @RWApodcast @DefensePolitics @VonClownsewitz @tom_username_ @Mr_Spock

I assume that the number on Ukrainian losses misses “volunteers” and mercenaries … adding these, we can easily come to 140k.

If you find it, post pls.

https://twitter.com/baronitaigas/status/1617963704733282306

Usually there are 3-4 wounded for each killed.

So multiply 120.000 KIA by 3.5 (average) and you’ll be at 420.000 WIA.

KIA + WIA -> You’re at roughly 540.000 Ukrainian casualties.

https://twitter.com/zekomali_zm/status/1617966814797107203

Honorable contribution

https://twitter.com/baronitaigas/status/1616173981236854784

Addendum

https://twitter.com/mylordbebo/status/1618029703792840706