I don't think the world has gotten better at detecting and responding to novel outbreaks. The pandemic has heralded an era of increased virus hunting and manipulation.
@TheLastofUsHBO We're stuck contemplating whether the next pandemic will come from the supposed millions of spillovers of viruses from animals to people vs growing numbers of scientists engaging in pathogen research with unpredictable outcomes in not necessarily the appropriate biosafety level.
@TheLastofUsHBO Most of us are still recovering from this pandemic. I'm not sure what normal people are supposed to do if a similar or worse pathogen emerges in the next 10 years - whether due to increased risky pathogen research or invasion of natural habitats.
There's got to be some effective intermediate response between "just get your flu shot" (how a large number of scientific leaders reacted to Covid-19) and "bomb the entire city" (plot of @TheLastofUsHBO) when experts hear of a novel pathogen.
@TheLastofUsHBO I think reality favors underplaying novel emerging pathogens (unless you're writing a grant application for research funding). Trying to calm the public into thinking it's NBD and to carry on as usual.
Is the assumption that future pandemics will not have a high mortality rate?
@TheLastofUsHBO I don't think anyone serious thinks zombies are going to happen, but it does make you wonder what you're supposed to do when you turn on the news and there's a new pathogen wreaking havoc somewhere on the other side of the globe.
@TheLastofUsHBO Do we have channels for accurate information to spread around the world in real-time? Can we trust scientists and politicians to focus on the facts and not on selling a narrative that will elicit their desired reaction from the public?
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The lab #OriginOfCovid hypothesis does not require that no natural spillovers of SARS-like viruses occur or that 0 SARS-like viruses have furin cleavage sites in nature.
It asks why a rare SARS-like virus + FCS emerged where scientists proposed putting FCSs in SARS-like viruses.
These scientists wrote in early 2018 that they were systematically looking for rare SARS-like viruses with FCSs, and they would optimize/insert these FCSs into "low risk" SARS-like viruses to see how this could impact the virus' ability to infect and grow in human cells.
One interpretation is that, at that time in early 2018, they had already found such rare SARS-like viruses and determined that they bore cleavage sites or features approaching functional cleavage sites that could be optimized and inserted into SARS-like viruses in the lab.
I can empathize with those who say "don't talk about a lab #OriginOfCovid" because your safety + job prospects will be in danger, it might stir up geopolitical conflict, it could embolden extremists.
But it is untrue that there is not enough evidence to ask for an investigation.
As early as February 2020, scientists, both in and outside of China, were publicly and privately worrying about a lab leak origin of the pandemic.
3 years later, the WHO, the Lancet Commission, US intelligence and government all agree a lab #OriginOfCovid must be investigated.
There is no evidence in the past 3 years that would make a lab #OriginOfCovid implausible.
Would WHO, US IC+gov, Lancet Commission, and numerous reputable virologists all be asking whether this virus came from a lab if there wasn't sufficient evidence?
Forms of intimidation a scientist can expect to face if they publicly ask for an investigation of a lab #OriginOfCovid
1. Accused of encouraging racist right-wing conspiracy theorists
2. Accused of being an unqualified grifter
3. Retaliation in academia
4. Threats+harassment
And most ridiculously:
5. Accused of spreading #OriginOfCovid misinformation because they don't talk enough about natural recombination in viruses.
When there is literally a 2018 research plan by Wuhan-US scientists that could have led to the creation of the pandemic virus.
When my colleagues and I said in 2020 that both natural and lab #OriginOfCovid hypotheses were viable, we had no idea the kind of s***storm we were going to get sucked into. We had no idea that this was ongoing in the background: theintercept.com/2023/01/19/cov…
The strongest hypothesis for a genetically engineered lab #OriginOfCovid is that scientists collected a new SARS-like virus that did not seem dangerous to humans and used this low-risk strain for clear gain-of-function experiments eg inserting a furin cleavage site in its spike.
This plan is literally written in the early 2018 proposal by the Wuhan and US scientists.
They would use "low risk" strains for cleavage site insertion. Nowhere in this section does it say they were going to use close relatives of known human pathogens. documentcloud.org/documents/2106…
To all the virologists and journalists asking for evidence that the pandemic virus may have been engineered in a lab, I think you missed this revelation in September 2021: theintercept.com/2021/09/23/cor…
“Let’s look at the big picture: A novel SARS coronavirus emerges in Wuhan with a novel cleavage site in it. We now have evidence that, in early 2018, they had pitched inserting novel cleavage sites into novel SARS-related viruses in their lab.”
Put it this way, it is as if these scientists proposed to put horns on horses and 2 years later a unicorn shows up in their town. When they discover this unicorn and describe it to the public, they talk about every other feature except for the horn. ayjchan.medium.com/the-evidence-f…
This takes the 🍰 @Nature reporter asks Peter Daszak what he thinks of the cleavage site in the pandemic virus.
He says it enhances pathogenicity. Doesn't mention that he & Wuhan collaborators proposed putting these sites into SARS-like viruses in the lab. usrtk.org/wp-content/upl…
@Nature On @TheLancet letter that condemned all conspiracy theories suggesting the virus did not have a natural origin... looks like the support from the chief editor was too strong and several of the authors did not manage to declare their COIs before the letter was published.
@Nature@TheLancet As early as May 2020 Daszak and friends had worried about being FOIA'ed and sought to evade it by using personal gmail addresses.
h/t @Rebecca21951651