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https://twitter.com/BadBalticTakes/status/1618617164633870338

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Bad Baltic Takes

@BadBalticTakes

Apr 16

🧵…

Beyond Twitter, a lot has been happening in support of Ukraine across the Baltic nations.

(Actually, a lot of NAFO types here never bothered with Twitter even before it turned to shit.)

Over in the real world, a key aim is boosting defence production in our countries & Ukraine.

We’re going big on defencetech.

We know freedom must be better armed than tyranny. We know we can’t rely on Chinese crap for that.

Here’s one of several packed defencetech meetings in the Estonian startup community. There are really promising 🇺🇦 - 🇪🇪 solutions being developed.

Read 15 tweets

Bad Baltic Takes

@BadBalticTakes

Nov 30, 2023

Some things look a lot clearer in hindsight.

That’s especially true for russian disinformation. Its peddlers have to keep up with ever changing narratives so they hope you’re too distracted by new lies to hold them to account for the old lies.

But let’s, for a moment, step away from current bullshit & rewind exactly 2 years.

Settle in. This is gonna be a LONG one, but I think there are key lessons to learn. 🧵

⏪ It’s November 2021.

This was the period in which the continued build up of russia’s invasion force became so impossible to ignore that many people internationally first heard concerns predicting the impending invasion.

There was lots of good journalism and analysis back then going into detail about why it appeared russia was planning an invasion and what the world could urgently do to deter it.

Russia ridiculed the warnings. As Business Insider reported:

‘Russia says it’s not planning an invasion as US and others raise concerns about troop buildup near Ukraine’.

A kremlin spokesperson said that “the movement of troops on our territory shouldn’t be a cause for anyone’s concern” and any suggestion it was planning to invade Ukraine [further] was a “hollow and unfounded attempt to incite tensions”, adding “russia doesn’t threaten anyone”.

These denials were crucial, not just for the element of surprise against Ukraine, but also to bypass both global and domestic outrage building in advance to stop the war and so that russia could later attempt to craft its propaganda narrative about how it had been provoked once its invasion force was in place.

As you can probably guess, ‘others’ from the headline included the Baltic countries. Our leaders were urgently warning the world to deter russian aggression by standing with Ukraine and making clear the cost to russia of a wider war.

But, despite the massive invasion force being built up around Ukraine by an aggressor state that had already partially invaded Ukraine, there was also fairly widespread doubt building internationally too about whether the invasion force was an invasion force and so whether any attempt at deterrence was needed.

I spent some time looking through articles and tweets that summarise public perceptions and how it was being influenced from November into December 2021.

A number of “russia experts” - mostly former moscow correspondents who boosted each other online and have some curious connections offline - had quite a significant influence while ridiculing anyone concerned about russia’s threat. Their behaviour worked out exactly in the interests of the kremlin, which was desperate to deceive the world about its invasion plans.

In retrospect, their writings clearly have very close similarities with that of Walter Duranty back in the 1930s.

They ridicule reports about russia we now know were accurate, they smear the authors of those reports as propagandists, and they minimise Eastern European perspectives that warned about russia in ways that, again, we now know were accurate. Only fellow “russia experts” from russia and westerners who have spent time as moscow correspondents should be listened to, they heavily implied (even though they proved to be 100% wrong).

Oh, and this was also the height of the human trafficking operation organised through Belarus as part of hybrid warfare against Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland.

These same “russia experts” were also busy pouring doubt on suggestions russia was fuelling it, which of course we know today is as absurd as them saying russia wouldn’t invade.

Next tweet, some key observations.

Here’s a few key things I’d forgotten were considered normal two years ago in public discourse from these “russia experts” but is much more notable in hindsight:

- The people with the worst takes were a lot more friendly with each other then than now.

You see, the widespread revulsion towards russia’s full scale war forced russia’s assets and useful idiots to pick whether they’d publicly condemn the invasion (while more subtly promoting kremlin narratives) or go all in and start justifying it. So these two types of propaganda pushers now have to act like they are on opposing sides. Yet, 2 years ago, many of these same people were friendly with each other and boosting each other by retweeting, engaging, and sharing each other’s articles.

That’s how they gained disproportionate influence. By acting as one network, quite openly until the full scale war.

Ok, maybe they genuinely fell out over opposing beliefs but then it’s not like we’ve seen any reflection among the ‘moderates’ about why they were previously being amplified by genocide-supporting extremists.

- I forgot how vitriolic they all used to be, even then. Anyone expressing concern about russian aggression was being called “grifters”, the “russia-bashing industry”, and “war mongers” - and, according to them, should pay the price for getting it wrong when russia doesn’t invade (presumably with more ridicule and demonisation simply for deterring russian aggression).

Yet now they think it’s really unfair when, for example, some bad takes account shows how bad their takes were and asks them some long overdue awkward questions about their kremlin connections.

- The “russia experts” engaged in bizarrely nonsensical theorising, the logic of which they very quickly abandoned when the full scale war began.

You see, they needed a way to explain why people were warning about russia if there was no threat so they indulged in conspiracy theories and bizarre logic that concerns about russia were being expressed in order to… er, provoke a war.

So, if they were consistent, they would now believe russia’s full scale war was provoked by western predictions of its full scale war. (Although I have no clue how that makes sense).

But they didn’t follow through on that logic. As soon as the full scale war began, they had to quickly ditch those conspiracy theories if they wanted to maintain their image as independent journalists opposed to the war. They knew they couldn’t get away with that nonsense in the face of widespread revulsion to russia’s invasion. It’s like they never actually believed the bullshit they were saying two years ago.

- I need to reiterate that there was LOTS of good analysis at the time warning about the very real impending risk of a russian invasion. I found all kinds of journalists, politicians, and think tank analysts who feared what was coming and offered good solutions, such as in discussion around sanctions. That’s in addition to millions of ordinary people concerned about the invasion force. The “russia experts” were ridiculing them.

This is important to remember because these same “russia experts” now like to say “no one could have predicted putin would do this [full scale war]”. That’s gaslighting. They are just trying to cover their tracks for their own consistently bad takes.

- Finally, at the heart of all this is the marginalisation of Eastern European voices. They talked of invasion concerns as if it was a purely American elite thing and then talked about how it was debunked by “Russian and Western experts on Russia”. The people most affected by russian aggression, among whom millions of ordinary people could clearly see it coming, were largely erased from the discourse. Just as this war is about erasing them too.

I’m glad that looks so bizarre and horribly outdated now. But we didn’t need a full scale war to know that the people most experienced and impacted by something (like russian aggression) also know the most about it.

Read 5 tweets

Bad Baltic Takes

@BadBalticTakes

Nov 28, 2023

“Russia is threatened by NATO!”
“Russia is ready to fight NATO if we cross its red lines!”

Meanwhile, in reality, this is russia removing significant amounts of defence equipment from the location it would be most needed in a war against NATO. 🤔

Military cargo flights recently reached a three year high between the territory that russia calls kaliningrad and the rest of russia. Russia has deliberately obscured the end location of these flights. However, great OSINT accounts like @auonsson and also the UK’s intelligence update were able to reveal that the flights were very likely removing air defence systems and other equipment and transporting it to be used in russia’s war against Ukraine.

Should we worry about russia starting a war against NATO?

Yes.

But it will only do that if it can first defeat Ukraine and consolidate gains there by competing its genocide.

It doesn’t want to fight everyone simultaneously and it knows that NATO is a defence alliance that doesn’t threaten it.

I cannot emphasise this enough:

Russia won’t escalate its war if we support Ukraine more. Russia will escalate the war against us all if we don’t support Ukraine more!

Read 5 tweets

Bad Baltic Takes

@BadBalticTakes

Nov 9, 2023

Since this was published yesterday, I’ve spoken to some of the most active supporters of Ukraine actually involved in its fight for freedom.

Many of them had the same reaction to Konstantin Kisin:

“Who?” 🤷‍♂️

As for the minority that have heard of him, they’ve always regarded him as a voice for the Kremlin.

Since the very earliest days of russia’s full scale war, he’s been publicly promoting key russian narratives. He said the war must end in a win for putin, which must at least include rewarding russia with Crimea and Eastern Ukraine, which he lied no Ukrainians believed could ever be liberated anyway. The alternative, he claimed, would be WW3 because putin must never be backed into a corner and russians would never rise up against him.

He said all that in March 2022 on British TV.

Now he thinks he’s the main character supporting Ukraine. And note that he still uses russian imperial spelling for Ukrainian cities.

This level of tone deaf self-absorption while doing nothing to help Ukraine and repeating the russian imperial perspective is familiar. It’s characteristic of so much of the russian “opposition” and so many “independent”russian commentators with dodgy Kremlin connections.

You might be wondering: does Kisin, by any chance, have any connections to russia too?

Yes. He’s the Moscow-born son of a senior russian former official.

Earlier this week, I tweeted about how the Kremlin is now pushing all of its assets to call for a “peace deal”, as can clearly be seen with its troll accounts, many of which have abruptly switched from salivating over russia aggression to posing as modern Ghandis. Now many useful idiots are joining in.

Russia wants a pause to consolidate control of occupied territories while re-arming for a wider war - as it always does. At the very least, it wants to promote the perception that the country being invaded and subjected to genocide is the one being unreasonable in order to undermine support that would also help russia escalate its war.

There is only one war that Kisin really cares about and that’s the culture war where he does his grifting while promoting other fringe voices - many of whom are openly pro-russia.

So there are now two articles currently being heavily promoted by pro-war kremlin accounts and other russia-sympathising public figures.

One is written by moscow-born Simon Shuster. The other is written by moscow-born Konstantin Kisin. Both have a troubling history of promoting absurd kremlin narratives.

While much of this is predictable, if I was to write a parody about how russia would promote this narrative then using the Moscow-born culture warrior son of a senior russian former official writing a pompous self-absorbed statement then I would have considered this a bit too comically exaggerated.

As it happens, in addition to being a “russia expert”, Kisin identifies as a comedian - to the confusion of people who have seen his shows. Following poor reviews, he has said his comedy ‘career’ is currently on pause. And yet it seems he’s already trying to escalate his attempts at comedy.

This is him in March 2022.

The audacity of now declaring himself one of the most vocal supporters of Ukraine.

Since the beginning of the full scale war, Kisin has argued that it is an existential war …for russia.

Not for the independent democracy being invaded by a genocidal imperial autocracy whose openly stated goal is their annihilation. But, he thinks it’s existential for the aggressor. And that’s why, he claims, Ukraine should sacrifice large parts of itself in order to help russia get a win and help save russia’s existence in its current form.

That’s the most revealing tell.

I’ve no idea whether he’s an asset or a useful idiot, but he has the russian imperial perspective - with just a bit of pity expressed for Ukrainians, which he thinks enable him to pretend to be one of their biggest supporters whose words now should be considered as significant.

It IS an existential war - but for the country whose existence is being attacked. No one serious and credible is unable to understand that.

Read 5 tweets

Bad Baltic Takes

@BadBalticTakes

Jul 28, 2023

We should actually start using “a poor waif in his underwear” as an English expression but for people who blow their cover as Kremlin propagandists.

Someone please add it to Urban dictionary.

Let’s run through some examples of its usage. Feel free to add your own. 🧵

“The tech mogul, outlining his “peace plan” that would reward russian aggression, inadvertently exposed himself as a poor waif in his underwear by using the phrase ‘Khrushchev’s mistake’, which only appeared in russian propaganda.”

“By ridiculing concerns about the impending russian invasion as a QAnon style conspiracy theory, even as the invasion force was poised, a number of “russia experts” were left as poor waifs in their underwear when russia’s full scale invasion inevitably began.”

Read 5 tweets

Bad Baltic Takes

@BadBalticTakes

Jul 27, 2023

OMG. Seymour Hersh’s handler really messed up.

The “anonymous US official” supposed to be briefing Hersh used a russian expression (мальчик в трусиках) that English speakers don’t use. 😂

Other Kremlin propagandists are now trying to fix the quote themselves but still can’t make it sound like convincing English. 😂

https://twitter.com/badbaltictakes/status/1684842228600934400

Adding the second part:

https://twitter.com/badbaltictakes/status/1684842228600934400

Read 5 tweets

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