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T. Ryan Gregory 🇨🇦

@TRyanGregory

Jan 26, 2023 • 14 tweets • 6 min read • Read on X

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Hello Canada! 🇨🇦

A few things you might not know about the pandemic...
🧵

1/

🇨🇦 Did you know that 2022 was the deadliest year of the pandemic in Canada?

thestar.com/news/analysis/…

2/

🇨🇦 Did you know that Canada recently passed 50,000 COVID deaths?

globalnews.ca/news/9414775/c…

3/

🇨🇦 Did you know that more Canadians have died of COVID than died in World War II?

(🇺🇸 Also, did you know that more of our American neighbours have died of COVID than dies in combat in every war they've fought since 1775?)

4/

🇨🇦 Did you know that the *lowest* number of COVID patients in hospital has been increasing through 5 waves of Omicron and that the troughs have all been higher than the *peak* of the Delta wave?

5/

🇨🇦 Did you know that summer 2022 had twice as many deaths as summer 2021?

6/

@allard

🇨🇦 Did you know that the main issue with Omicron variants is no longer "tsunamis" caused by individual variants, but rising sea level with high and low tide? This imposes sustained pressure on the healthcare system.

(Image with area under the curve courtesy of @allard)

7/

🇨🇦 Did you know that 15% of Canadians infected with COVID (1.4 million people) report long-term symptoms?

www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quoti…

8/

🇨🇦 Did you know that there are now more than 700 Omicron subvariants, and that many of them can escape prior immunity and are resistant to available treatments?

9/

🇨🇦 Did you know that mitigation measures like high-quality (N95) masks worn properly, ventilation, air filtration, and avoiding high risk contact are all variant-proof?

10/

🇨🇦 Did you know that the pandemic is not over?

11/

Quick note about the not-low lows of hospitalizations since Omicron. Same pattern happening in various places (New York, UK, France, Denmark, etc.).

Here's hospital *admissions for COVID* in England:

Belgium, Italy, Switzerland, Japan, Australia, Israel...

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More from @TRyanGregory

T. Ryan Gregory 🇨🇦

@TRyanGregory

Jun 12

Two new variants are competing for dominance: NB.1.8.1 and XFG. We recently nicknamed NB.1.8.1 "Nimbus", and it's pretty clear that XFG deserves a nickname as well. Keeping with the meteorological theme, XFG = "Stratus".

Here's some more info about Nimbus and Stratus. 🧵

1/

There are two main ways by which divergent variants may evolve within single hosts: evolution during chronic infection and recombination during simultaneous infection with more than one variant. Nimbus (NB.1.8.1) and Stratus (XFG) have both mechanisms in their ancestries.

2/

Stratus (XFG) is a recombinant of LF.7 x LP.8.1.2 -- both of which descendants of BA.2.86, which itself had evolved within someone infected for ~2 years.

LF.7 = JN.1.16.1.7 = BA.2.86.1.1.16.1.7

LP.8.1.2 = JN.1.11.1.1.1.3.8.1.2 = BA.2.86.1.1.11.1.1.1.3.8.1.2

3/

Read 10 tweets

T. Ryan Gregory 🇨🇦

@TRyanGregory

Jun 6

Nimbus (NB.1.8.1) is getting a fair bit of attention, but it's not the only SARS-CoV-2 variant worth watching. Here's a link to info about a few more, all of which have arisen either through within-host evolution during chronic infection and/or within-host recombination.

🧵

1/

https://x.com/TRyanGregory/status/1927371947999957310

First, a reminder that Nimbus (NB.1.8.1) is a triple recombinant with both BA.2.86 and XBB ancestry -- that is, it has multiple recombination events and chronic infections in its evolutionary history. Here's a thread I wrote about it:

2/

https://x.com/TRyanGregory/status/1927371947999957310

Another that is very competitive is XFG, which is a recombinant of two Pirola lineages (LF.7 x LP.8.1.2).

Head over to BlueSky to see the post by Josette Schoenmakers on the XFG vs. NB.1.8.1 battle for dominance.

3/bsky.app/profile/josett…

Read 4 tweets

T. Ryan Gregory 🇨🇦

@TRyanGregory

May 27

Meet "Nimbus", aka SARS-CoV-2 variant NB.1.8.1.

🧵

1/

$Evolutionary tree of SARS-CoV-2 variants showing the small fraction of diversity covered by every variant with a Greek letter except "Omicron", and the enormous diversity within "Omicron", including Nimbus NB.1.8.1.$

The last variant to receive an informal nickname was BA.2.86 "Pirola" nearly two years ago, back in August 2023. Since then, it has been a prolonged "variant soup" phase, with descendants of BA.2.86 arising, gaining prominence, and then falling in frequency.

2/

A prolonged variant soup phase involving the Pirola clan does not mean there was no within-host evolution occurring. It just meant that nothing had gotten back into the general population that could compete with the many, many descendants of BA.2.86.

3/

Read 14 tweets

T. Ryan Gregory 🇨🇦

@TRyanGregory

Apr 29

Btw folks, what happened is that Québec saved us all from Poilievre. Bloc voters went Liberal this time to keep him out.

Ontario, not so much. Big gains for the Cons.

BC was where the NDP did best last election, and this time it went Lib and Con.

So, we essentially traded a Liberal minority with progressive parties being very influential to a Liberal minority with a huge Conservative opposition and minimal progressive representation.

The fact that 41.4% voted Con (vs. 43.5% Lib) isn't a good sign either.

Yes, I'm relieved that it's not Poilievre as PM and I'm glad he lost his seat. But beyond that, we're not in a very good place overall. The major rightward shift isn't going to be good, especially when the Liberals eventually lose to the Conservatives.

Read 4 tweets

T. Ryan Gregory 🇨🇦

@TRyanGregory

Apr 1

It's very important to be clear about what is happening in the Canadian election and how progressives need to approach it. 🧵

The LPC surge toward a majority is due primarily to a collapse of support for the NDP and Bloc, and much less so a drop in support for the CPC.

1/

This means that the Libs are mostly picking up progressive voters who are planning to vote strategically to stop the Cons. They are not picking up huge numbers of "moderate conservatives".

Cons support is generally committed but Libs support isn't.

2/angusreid.org/canadian-elect…

The *winning strategy* for Libs is to make strategic voting by progressives as painless as possible by leaning *leftward*.

The winning approach for progressive voters is to make it clear they cannot be taken for granted and do not agree with rightward drift.

3/

Read 6 tweets

T. Ryan Gregory 🇨🇦

@TRyanGregory

Mar 19

Thoughts on pandemics, inclusion, annexation, Indigenous issues, climate, genocide, and more and the connections I see among them. I fully acknowledge that I am writing this from a position of substantial intersectional privilege.

🧵

1/

I really hoped that the (ongoing) SARS-CoV-2 pandemic would inspire us to make meaningful, positive changes in society. Indeed, early on it seemed like privileged people finally understood what it was like to lack access to things we otherwise take for granted.

2/

Sadly, but perhaps predictably, we instead rushed back to the status quo as quickly as we could. If anything, things are worse now in terms of public health, accessibility and inclusion, and global health equity. Infectious disease has been actively normalized.

3/

Read 10 tweets

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