Thread by @GonzaloLira1968

THREAD:

The sanctions against Russia are what turned this conflict into an existential crisis—

—for the West: The US and Europe.

On Feb. 24, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO was existential for Russia. They could not allow NATO armies and nukes on their doorstep.

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The 2014 sanctions over their annexing of Crimea had hurt Russia—badly. So over the next 8 years, the Russians sanction-proofed their economy, creating the MIR card and the alternative to SWIFT.

When the conflict started, the West immediate dialed the sanctions up to 11.

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They expected a repeat of 2014 for the Russian economy—only worse. In 2022, they truly tried everything in their power to crush the Russian economy—all-out war in all but name.

Briefly, it looked like they might succeed—but the Russian economy had become far more resilient.

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Their economy survived because of trade with the rest of the world, India most especially. And that only happened because of Russia's phenomenal diplomatic and political efforts: Making it clear to the rest of the world that they had been targeted by the West for destruction.

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This Western targeting of Russia for destruction is obvious to the rest of the world—and it scared them. “Today them—tomorrow us.”

So because of Western sanctions, the rest of the world started to turn away from the West, trying to sanction-proof their own economies.

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All of these recent moves—Saudis pivoting to China, countries wanting to join BRICS, even Argentina and Brazil’s talk of a common currency—all of this de-Westernization is a reaction to the West’s sanctions against Russia.

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All of this de-Westernization means *de-dollarization of trade*.

The US can survive ONLY because there is a strong demand for dollars, due to foreign trade. But when foreign trade de-dollarizes, the US has no customers for its debt.

Thus it stops being able to run deficits.

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In other words, by imposing sanctions on Russia, the US scared the rest of the world into de-dollarizing—so they have no need to park their excess reserves in US debt instruments. So the US will soon no longer be able to finance its trade deficit or government deficits.

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Meanwhile, Europe deprived itself of cheap Russian energy—the main pillar of European industrial success and competitiveness.

This has killed the European economy. Germany’s is collapsing, consumer inflation is through the roof—Europe has ceased to be an economic power.

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The West truly thought that Russia would collapse because of the sanctions—and collapse quickly. The fact that at first, the ruble spiked and the stock market tanked gave credence to the idea that they had worked.

But an economy is not its exchange rate or stock markets.

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The ruble and the stock market rebounded, because Russia's economy is fundamentally sound—and it has other customers besides Europe. Which it began developing close ties to, due to the political/diplomatic efforts of the Kremlin.

Russia will never again trade with Europe.

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And THIS is what killed Europe: They didn't realize that their economy depended on Russia much more than vice versa. Apart from Russia, they had no source of cheap energy, and they had no large captive market for their goods and services.

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For Europe, there is no return to the status quo ante bellum.

Because of the revelations by Merkel and Hollande that Minsk II were not signed in good faith—not to mention the hysterical Russophobia—the Russian people and businesses no longer trust the Europeans.

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Besides, Russia has all these new, hungry customers for their energy and their goods and services.

So for Europe, the war is lost—because their economies are never going to get cheap Russian gas and a dependable customer for their products.

Europe has lost the war.

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As to the United States, it too lost the war: Because no one trusts them. So no one wants its dollars.

Every country in the world now sees that the US—at the drop of a hat, for violating its “values”—is willing to destroy an economy by sanctions.

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So now of course, every other country wants to pivot away from such a capricious partner, and join with someone big but predictable—China/Russia.

Also, it cannot be overstated how disgusted the rest of the world is by American degeneracy, especially the LGBTQP+ stuff.

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If those are “Western values”, the rest of the world wants no part of them. And if they have to accept them so as to not be sanctioned by the West . . . well maybe de-Westernize, de-dollarize, and join the China/Russia axis?

Maybe? Certainly.

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So as more countries pivot away from the US, the US has a harder time selling its debt—maintaining its domestic standard of living.

So the US too has lost this war.

The war is over, btw. It doesn't matter what happens on the battlefield in Ukraine.

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If Ukraine by some miracle kicked out Russia from all its territory AND Crimea—that wouldn't matter. The effects, economically and politically, wouldn't change—they're permanent and irreversible.

Europe's economy would still be dead—the US's debt game would still be over.

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This is how the Ukraine conflict—initially an existential war for Russia—became a life-or-death crisis for the West too.

The West did this to itself—never forget that.

And the West has lost this war already—they just haven't realized it yet.

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