Thread by @Aaron_MatthewIL

This leap in 🇵🇭🇺🇸 security may come as a surprise to some, but if one looks at what 2022 brought I think it should be fair to say this was at least a year in the making. As well as a sign of the major things to come. A small 🧵

https://twitter.com/nakashimae/status/1620167337759633409

Starting off, to those who say that 🇵🇭 is an outlier/negilable in a 🇹🇼 contingency are wrong. This thought completely ignores the strategic position 🇵🇭 occupies in relation the flashpoints and choke points around it. Have some forgetten why 🇺🇸 has bases in 🇵🇭 in the first place?

https://twitter.com/aaron_matthewil/status/1617763051842990081

Now, Manila is realizing its crucial location alongside the failure of around half a decade of appeasement attempts with China. With regional tensions, and an inability to independently deter threats, rapprochement with the Americans was inevitable.

https://twitter.com/Aaron_MatthewIL/status/1616322643040391169

2022 was a crucial year in 🇵🇭 defense, and has set the stage for even larger engagements for 2023. This thread provides a brief recap:

https://twitter.com/Aaron_MatthewIL/status/1608941708846456834

So what comes in 2023? It’s going to be 2022 but larger and bolder. We’re about to see the largest ever Balikatan Exercise take place on key island features in the Luzon Strait. I cannot emphasize how much of a signal this is, and I doubt that Manila doesn’t see it as well.

https://twitter.com/Aaron_MatthewIL/status/1617430114110959617

It’s not just the Americans either. Japan will be making major moves going forward, enough to the point where I can surely say developments in the 🇵🇭🇯🇵 security relationship will be a highlight of 2023’s overall developments across the Indo-Pacific.

https://twitter.com/aaron_matthewil/status/1608941839587119104

Whatever happens this year, I hope that 🇵🇭 will leverage its increasingly important position in the first island chain for issues other than 🇹🇼. If 🇺🇸 expects 🇵🇭 basing rights, then they should start stepping up in helping secure the country’s sovereignty in the WPS. /end