#FightTheFed YTD returns thru Jan for all my holdings (most of which I disclose)
S&P 500 is +6%
STOCKS
Non-energy 55% 33% 23% 22% 22% 21% 19% 18% 17% 16% 13% -4%
Uranium 24% 15% 10% 4%
Oil & gas 12% -3% -5% -7% -11%
Gold miners 10%
CRYPTO
Bitcoin/Eth 40% 33%
Alts 62% 43% 43%
S&P 500 is +6%
STOCKS
Non-energy 55% 33% 23% 22% 22% 21% 19% 18% 17% 16% 13% -4%
Uranium 24% 15% 10% 4%
Oil & gas 12% -3% -5% -7% -11%
Gold miners 10%
CRYPTO
Bitcoin/Eth 40% 33%
Alts 62% 43% 43%
All these gains are from my #FightTheFed thesis (overall macro), industry-level insights & market-dynamics calls (e.g., the end of tax loss selling; crypto ran out of sellers), not from individual stock picking. Only one stock had important company-level news, and it was negative
That was $KAP missing production targets - which was positive news for my other 3 uranium holdings. That's the way it's supposed to work.
The one non-energy loser is a zero-beta legal special situation (doesn't move w/ other stocks). That, also, is the way it's supposed to work.
The one non-energy loser is a zero-beta legal special situation (doesn't move w/ other stocks). That, also, is the way it's supposed to work.
Now watch me give back all these gains by June. It happens. The most obvious scenario would be if inflation disappoints and the Fed says it will hike to 6%.
Semi-perma-bear @EconguyRosie notes that, in 2001 after a terrible 2000, the Nasdaq was +20% in Jan and -30% in Feb-Dec.
This pattern has seasonal & behavioral underpinnings, so it *could* repeat in 2023. Doesn't mean it will. Bottom line: Don't read too much into Jan results.
This pattern has seasonal & behavioral underpinnings, so it *could* repeat in 2023. Doesn't mean it will. Bottom line: Don't read too much into Jan results.
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