Thread by @Raj_2409

A Sell report by a convertible bond analyst about a company starting with “A” that didn’t quite go right in retrospect…

This one goes back 20+ years and imo is One of the most interesting phases of Amazons history - it’s journey through the dot com bust…let’s dig in…#AMZN

The report was written by Ravi Suria - a Chennai boy when he was all of 29. Imagine what it might have taken to take head on internal pressure, board me,get pressure and from the company targeted…he admitted it ruined his life for two years sfgate.com/business/netwo…

If we imagine ourselves at that time, How to react to such a caustic congruence of red flags??100s of M$ burnt in failed e-comm acquisitions, high attrition in senior team, lack of confidence amongst internal senior team, list of failed initiatives outnumbered ones that succeeded

But Jeff Bezos prevailed…drastically cut marketing to plough back to customer, dropped non core projects, built unlikely/awkward partnerships for much needed cash, but it is what they continued spending on that is most remarkable…

I know this is an over simplification but I am inclined to believing that it was his steadfastness in holding on to customer obsession and his sheer tenacity

His Goblet of fire bet (Amazon lost money putting this sought after book at a 40% discount & express delivery), pushed for lower talk time & contacts with customer service per order, doubled down on everyday low prices, sowed seeds for third party sellers & expanded free shipping

https://twitter.com/rambhupatiraju/status/1266228499880325121?s=46&t=W78ZkO_c2bxV5bIc0lYs5A

- nice summary but nothing like reading the book #BradStone

https://twitter.com/rambhupatiraju/status/1266228499880325121

Key lessons

Avoid building biases - certain past actions or mistakes don’t mean the approach can’t be corrected

Dig deep - if there’s a company that’s got some things right but many wrong, one will need to dig deep to ascertain for oneself

Short selling - extremely difficult to execute and as a mentor once told me can affect you emotionally in ways one can’t expect or anticipate.

Build positions over time - Robust investing is done over many quarters or years - often one needs to track the company’s trajectory over very long periods of time. Mere price watching is not investing

I find researching potential winners a better use of time than betting on who might lose…or not!!

Accept mistakes and change course - Astute board members with ring side views got it wrong which means you can…keep digging in and if and when you are wrong embrace with humility and correct your position

Don’t read between the lines please