The best time and place to speak about solar power is during a stretch of bad weather, in a country where you usually have both a lively sun and a moribund electric grid. Solar should be a no-brainer, although it's anything but ⤵️
Here, you can see in purple the moments where we received electricity from the public grid, over the past month, as well as their random distribution within a 24h hour timeframe. In yellow, our reliance on self-produced electricity. So far so good
The problem with solar is that, even with capacious batteries and a merciful climate, you struggle to align production and consumption. Here, note that every day of ours is not only different energy-wise: It involves either a surplus or a deficit
In fact, under optimal conditions, surplus is the rule, and the data doesn't account for it. When your batteries are full and your consumption is low, PV panels stop producing abruptly, as you can see here, when our office was empty last weekend
Although battery technology has improved, it will only make up for daily cycles and the occasional energy splurge. In bad weather, you must drastically curtail consumption. We use forecasts to reconcile today's "budget" with future needs
As we are willing to adjust constantly, our system is calibrated for sobriety. However, if you want to consume electricity by modern life's standards, you need excess PV panels and batteries, which also imply a much larger, wasted surplus
In sum, the effective use of solar power requires much more than good weather, especially if it is to meet environmental concerns. It calls for some form of scale, where users share on a mini grid at least: for example, our office with residential neighbors
Second, it implies an energy mix. We use gas for cooking and occasionally for heating, which illustrates how solar energy cannot reasonably be expected to cover all needs at all times. Third, to adapt consumption, you need much better data
The points above bring us to a fourth and final one: Equipments must evolve. Most solar systems are not designed for mini grids and provide really shoddy data. In turn, most appliances are still meant for the pre-solar age of plenty.
The energy transition is a learning curve!
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I once had a surprisingly frank chat with a member of Assad's guard. He would stand sentry around his home, and was occasionally part of his retinue when traveling within Syria.
It was a surreal conversation. It summed up for me the regime's dependence on "an army of slaves" 🧵
Before this chance encounter, I'd never had much interaction with these types, although I drove and walked past them routinely in Damascus.
They were dressed in white shirts and crummy black suits, in the heat, the cold, and the rain. They looked poor and proud and powerful.
After my second child was born, I was heading home from the hospital in the middle of the night. I hailed a taxi, and hit it off with the driver: a young father like me. We talked about our lives.
I wouldn't have believed his day job, had he not gotten into many vivid details.
The time has come to share excerpts from a memo I wrote in 2012 for Kofi Annan, on Assad’s personality and leadership style, in preparation for their first meeting.
It helps explain how the regime could rot over the years, from the inside, starting at the center 🧵
Assad is “a product of the regime’s inner core; he nonetheless has several outer layers of varnish that impress his Western interlocutors in private meetings. He does not espouse his father’s legacy; he loathes the comparison, and strives to distinguish himself from him.”
“He is different indeed: he misreads and despises his society; he brings in a nouveau-riche mentality; he fears strong figures and empowers weak ones; he micromanages rather than delegates; and he never sues for compromise, whether in a position of strength or weakness.”
France's foreign policy has never been this shallow, reflexive and incoherent, detached from any national interest, slave to the news cycle.
I've witnessed this evolution over 25 years, during my own career. It carries lessons about diplomacy more broadly 🧵
The most obvious shift is: presidentialization. Policy used to take shape within the ministry (the Quai d'Orsay), home to solid intellectual traditions, a robust corps of civil servants, and strong leadership figures.
Gradually, it moved to the presidential palace (the Elysee).
Within the Elysee, policy was formed at first by a small team of technical advisors who hailed from the Quai d'Orsay, and coordinated closely with it.
Even that changed, as the president's political staff and the president himself took over.
In Lebanon, Israel's war is giving us a taste of what it's like to live in Palestine. The parallels only go so far, but the general trends are disturbingly clear.
And in many ways, that is precisely the point 🧵
We now look to the sky, not least in search of surveillance drones.
Technically, these could be as silent as they are invisible, but they make a racket for the sake of it, as a statement of their ability to penetrate everything, our daily routines and our minds.
From above, strikes come unpredictably. Some collapse a residential building with all the families inside, in the hopes of killing just one enemy figure hiding within. The blast shakes everyone all around.
The thought of all the innocent souls shakes us deeper still.
In a war zone, an unexpectedly big part of the challenge is to reassure anguished friends and relatives abroad. It can be excruciating to watch from afar. But the ensuing anxiety can also make things more difficult for those on the ground. 🧵
A few rules of thumb may help if you're watching and worrying right now, especially if you haven't experienced war yourselves:
- People in a war zone don't necessarily have much to report each day. When you're not caught up in the action, war can be eerily uneventful and slow, however packed with emotions it is.