1/ The response to the ongoing pandemic in the short-term and a call for advocacy: 🧵
Tragically, it is my opinion that globally, we will see very little in the way of improved mitigations against infection being put into place in the short-term.
2/ Even the basic protections required - masking in health and social care facilities, masking on public transport, air filtration of public spaces - seem to be gaining no traction in most parts of the world. Without these basic protections, people who are vulnerable...
3/... are essentially excluded from life.
This is not acceptable.
My feeling is that during the latter half of this year, some mitigations may be mandated again. There are two reasons for this. First, the erosion of healthcare capacity is an issue that will lose elections.
4/ Thus politicians seeking to gain or retain power will have to address it. Erosion of healthcare adversely affects everyone, not just people concerned about Covid-19. Therefore it becomes a major electoral issue. It certainly will be in the UK and Ireland.
5/ Second, as more and more people drop out of the workforce due to Long Covid and other sequelae of infection, and sickness absences increase due to acute infection and sequelae, business will start to pressure governments. Notice how the business press is covering Covid.
6/ But, sadly, this is months away. We all need to do something now. Bismarck famously said, politics is the art of the possible. As such, I propose a grassroots campaign focussed on small, attainable goals.
7/ The focus of this campaign will be threefold:
(1) To reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a limited way
(2) To allow some participation in public life for those who are vulnerable and those who wish to avoid infection
8/ (3) To demonstrate to businesses that there is a profitable market for providing safe environments
As such, and with the knowledge that these campaigns must be both focussed and local, I intend to do the following:
9/ Contact every local supermarket and press for one hour per week in which mask-wearing is mandatory.
Contact every local taxi firm and ensure that all drivers will wear good-quality masks if requested to do so.
10/ Contact all local politicians and press for 'mask-only' carriages on certain train services.
Contact all privately owned local indoor arts spaces - cinemas, museums, galleries etc - and press for one slot per week with mandatory masking, or one performance.
11/ The idea is to ask for the minimum, because the minimum is hard to argue against. In my professional role, I understand the importance of profit. I suspect businesses don't realise there is an untapped market for what I propose.
12/ Comments and suggestions are very welcome, as this idea is still in its infancy.
There are hundreds of thousands of people who think like this on this platform. We need to stop talking and start acting /end
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1. The responses to this illustrate a point I've been making for years: namely, that people tend to view the causation behind what is asserted here as binary. It was *either* the societal non-pharmaceutical interventions (notably, the lockdowns) *or*...
2. ... the direct effects of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that significantly altered many societies globally (some much more so than others).
As I first explained on a client call with a major international energy company in 2020, pandemics are social phenomena.
3. That is to say, societies are changed by both the direct effects of the pathogen responsible for the pandemic (in this case, SARS-CoV-2) - mass death, disease, and disability - and by governments' responses to the situation. In other words, *causation is multi-factorial*.
1. As I have stated before on this platform, political decisions are often inextricably linked with biological risk - governmental policies can both mitigate or increase (or even create) biological risks. In that sense, one cannot assess biological risk in isolation of politics.
2. The domestic policies of the current US administration - severe cuts to federal public health programs, reduced disease surveillance, and sowing doubt regarding the effectiveness of vaccines (to name but a few) are clearly risks to the health of the US population.
3. The foreign policies of the US administration - cuts to USAID is a pertinent example - and the current war in the Gulf, which will adversely affect global medication and medical supply chains, and also increase global food insecurity, are clearly threats to global health.
1. Yes it did, and it continues to do so. SARS-CoV-2 is a virus that, amongst many other symptoms, can cause profound fatigue and cognitive dysfunction. Long Covid - much more common than people realise - can extend these symptoms for months, years.
2. Remembering that the virus can infect and re-infect on a very regular basis, a significant percentage of the global population are experiencing these symptoms at any given moment. This is one component of the break in society you are correctly observing.
3. Now layer on top of that the taboo around discussing Covid-19, the politicisation of both the disease and any efforts to mitigate it, and an environment of mass denial is created. This denial is a weight the vast majority of people don't realise they're carrying, but they are.
1. Sometimes, the absurdity of the situation we're all in just hits me. Going forward, ongoing and continuous transmission of SARS-CoV-2 will lead to an ever-increasing percentage of the global population developing chronic illnesses due to sequelae of infection.
2. Simultaneously, the immune dysregulation effect of infection will continue to create opportunities for other pathogens to infect, disable, and kill. One of those pathogens might well start the next pandemic.
3. In many countries, politics and the institutionalisation of anti-vax and pro-infection ideologies are actually encouraging this outcome. This is, to the best of my knowledge, unprecedented in human history: Humanity being overtly on the side of the virus, basically.
1. As a result of the current high prevalence of influenza and the accompanying media coverage of the spread of the disease, I've been asked about mitigations by a number of friends who take *no precautions against SARS-CoV-2*. A few observations regarding these conversations:
2. Very few people understand just how vastly more effective an FFP2 / KN95 respirator is versus a blue surgical mask. Interestingly, the fact that Boots (a UK pharmacy chain) actually sells own-brand FFP2s is a convincing point for some people: the power of a trusted brand.
3. The false binary nature of influenza vaccination is also obvious in these conversations. Some people seem to have difficulty with the fact that vaccination significantly reduces risk of infection and severe disease, but does not necessarily eliminate it.
1. The growing prevalence of H3N2 subclade K influenza - the strain driving this year's flu season - combined with the increasing prevalence of H5N1 and now H5N5 (I doubt the WA fatality is the sole human case) is a dangerous recipe for reassortment.
2. Influenza surveillance at the federal level in the US has been drastically reduced as a result of the current administration's very unwise budget cuts; human cases of H5N1 and potentially H5N5 are very likely not being detected.
3. As such, the first warning the US could have should a new, severe influenza strain emerge as a result of a reassortment event could well be an emergency room suddenly full of patients in acute respiratory distress.