(1/5) Since Russia withdrew its forces from the west bank of the Dnipro in November 2022, skirmishing and reconnaissance has continued on the complex network of islands and waterways which make up the Dnipro delta.
(2/5) Russian forces have almost certainly used small boats to try to main a presence on key islands; Ukraine has successfully deployed long-range artillery to neutralise Russian outposts a number of times.
(3/5) Both sides have likely also deployed small groups on the Kinburn Spit, which commands the Dnipro Gulf.
(4/5) Both sides are likely aiming to maintain a presence in these areas to control maritime access to the strategically important river and to provide warning of any attempt by their adversaries to launch a major assault across the river.
(5/5) It is highly unlikely that Russia will attempt an assault crossing of the Dnipro: it would likely be extremely complex and costly.
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(1/4) The weather continues to play a significant role in the course of Russiaβs war in Ukraine. With the ground frozen, there has likely been little change in cross country mobility (CCM) conditions in eastern Ukraine in recent weeks.
(2/4) On 08 February 2023, surface temperatures were around 0 degrees Celsius; over the coming week, forecasts suggest soil temperature increases and snow melt are likely to deteriorate CCM across the Donbas.
(1/4) It is highly likely that Russia has been attempting to re-start major offensive operations in Ukraine since early January 2023. Its operational goal is almost certainly to capture the remaining Ukrainian-held parts of Donetsk Oblast.
(2/4) Russian forces have only managed to gain several hundred metres of territory per week. This is almost certainly because Russia now lacks the munitions and manoeuvre units required for successful offensives.
(1/4) On 01 February 2023, Russian Federation Council chair Valentina Matvienko said that regional elections will take place in the newly annexed areas of Ukraine on 10 September 2023.
(2/4) Incorporating the elections into same day of voting which is scheduled across Russia highlights the leadershipβs ambition to present the areas as integral parts of the Federation.
(1/4) Over the last week, Russia has continued to make small advances in its attempt to encircle the Donbas town of Bakhmut.
(2/4) The M03 and the H32 β the two main roads into the city for Ukrainian defenders β are likely now both threatened by direct fire, following the Russian advances.
The Russian military has formally integrated occupied areas of Ukraine into its Southern Military District.
(2/5)
On 03 February 2023, Russia state news agency TASS reported that the Donetsk and Luhansk Peopleβs Republics and the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions are being placed under the three-star command which is headquartered in Rostov-on-Don.
(1/5) The scale of Russian paramilitary Wagner Groupβs convict recruitment programme has probably significantly reduced from its peak between summer and autumn 2022.
(2/5) The Russian Federal Penal Service (FSIN) figures released on 31 January 2023 reported a national penal population of 433,000, suggesting a decrease of 6000 inmates since November 2022.