Thread by @BadBalticTakes

The Baltics know Russia too well.

Their sober analysis - dismissed for decades as paranoia - has proven to be 🎯.

Estonia's latest Foreign Intelligence assessment has never been more widely read.

...but, if you found that interesting, there's something else worth reading. 🧵

Estonia's Ministry of Defence released its own straight-talking report a few days ago on the myths & lessons of Russia's war in Ukraine.

You can read it here, but I'll give a summarised overview in this thread. kaitseministeerium.ee/en/mythsandles….

Only #GoodBalticTakes, of course.

"In Russia’s view, success in Ukraine serves as a major stepping stone for reaching further goals. Russia’s long-term strategic aims remain unchanged: to dissolve the rules-based world order."

"Re-establishing spheres of influence in Eastern Europe and recreating buffer zones are the key steps in turning the current international order around for Russia."

"This is the most important reason why Russian tanks rolled over the Ukrainian border on February 24, 2022, and why similar scenarios have unfolded in Russia’s “near-abroad” many times before."

Myth 1: Putin’s War

"The imperialist mindset is historically rooted in Russia. The Russian empire has taken different forms throughout centuries, but the empire state of mind at the heart of it has remained unchanged."

"Russia has never been a democratic country and is unlikely to become one. Even after overthrowing previous rulers, the populace has always leaned towards yet another autocratic regime."

"The window of limited democratisation attempts in the 1990s is remembered as a period of humiliation and chaos in Russia – an unfortunate outcome of the Soviet leaders’ weakness and historical injustice that must be righted."

"Russia’s leadership has prepared the society for a large-scale war with the West for the past 20 years."

Myth 2: Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine is a Strategic Failure

"Should Russia manage to gain any territory as
a result of this war... it will have moved closer to its goal. The Kremlin will have demonstrated that altering national borders with military force is feasible..

...and the West and its rules-based world order can be weakened. Hence, as long as the territorial
integrity of Ukraine has not been fully restored, it is the rules-based order of the West that is facing a strategic failure."

"It may have come at a higher cost than expected, but Russia is still on track towards its strategic aims. Historically, political concessions are only a fast track to another “special military operation”, possibly against Allied countries."

Myth 3: Russia is Militarily and Strategically Weakened – Enough to Eliminate Russia’s Threat for Years to Come

"Russia’s losses would be unbearable in democratic
states. Meanwhile, an autocracy can write this off as a necessary cost that can be regained rather expeditiously."

Myth 4: NATO’s Deterrence of Russia is Complete

"Russia’s strategic objectives, risk tolerance & susceptibility for miscalculation underline how dangerous Russia’s threat is for NATO. As long as any gaps of hope or opportunity remain for Russia, Allied deterrence must improve."

Myth 5: Western Actions Leave Russia No Choice But to Escalate

"Military assistance in support of Ukraine has not been escalatory and it would not even have to be. Russia does not need any gamechanging decisions from the West or Ukraine as a basis for escalatory retaliation."

"Russia escalates when it deems the means necessary for its objectives. Such debates allow Russia not only to control escalation, but also our strategy. Western sensibility grants Russia a deliberate choice of when to push on the alleged “red lines” and nuclear rhetoric."

"War, however, has demonstrated that the fear of escalation is unnecessarily high."

"We have repeatedly witnessed that Russia considers conventional retreat acceptable and that nuclear rhetoric can also be muted with firm strategic messaging."

"Even the attacks against Russia’s strategic capabilities in its strategic depth only triggered a tactical response against Ukraine."

"Trickling military aid to Ukraine over a longer time in small quantities, carefully calculating each step and blunting Russia’s capabilities creates a false premise for a successful strategy."

"Instead, the war is merely dragged out with an immense cost, primarily for Ukraine. War of attrition is a very heavy price for perceived strategic stability. Going forward, we must strive to refrain from paralyzing self-deterrence and excessive fear of escalation."

No time to rest:

"Russia remains the most dangerous, immediate and long-term threat to NATO. There is no substantial evidence to conclude that Russia would lack the intent, capabilities or ability to create a window of opportunity for launching a military attack against NATO."

"Russia’s aggressiveness & unpredictability do not allow us to dismiss such probability... even despite the lack of absolute success in Ukraine. The intent is there & the capabilities are only temporarily weakened. Removing the opportunity is in our hands. NATO must be prepared."

"Russia will undoubtedly need some time to rebuild, but so does NATO."

"We are better today than we were a year ago, but our adversaries will set the true benchmark. There is also a risk that we only learn from the ongoing war."

"The task is straightforward: we must make it unmistakably clear to Russia that an attack against NATO does indeed come with an intolerably high price tag."

"It is time to honestly assess our capabilities and the true depth of the challenge ahead of us. Above all, we must also do something about it. The best time to start was yesterday, but the next best time is now."

Lessons:

1. "Russia will only refrain from testing NATO in case it is absolutely certain that the objectives it seeks bear an unacceptable cost for the Kremlin. It is our objective to ensure that a severe defeat at an immense price is the only scenario."

2. "Should our deterrence messaging fail to reach the intended recipient or not shake up its offensive plans, we will need to know – the earlier, the better."

"In spite of widely shared intelligence published all across Western media on a daily basis, too many decision-makers and leaders remained reluctant to believe that Russia would attack Ukraine up until the day of the invasion."

"We must improve our intelligence and early warning and normalize scenario-based discussions, war-games and readiness exercises in NATO."

3. "Allied leaders reaffirm their commitment to defend every inch of NATO frequently and with confidence. We need to translate this vow into true readiness in terms of mindset and operational activities."

4. "A lack of resources undermines our security and defence in the long-term. We need robust military capabilities to defend the Euro-Atlantic area, which only increased defence investment could provide."

5. "Capabilities and stocks are only part of the equation. We also need people: capable, well-trained forces and reserves, who could secure Allied success on the battlefield; and resilient societies with strong spirit and will to defend our democratic values."

"It is as important to inform and educate the domestic audiences about the true cost of war and the relative cost of preparedness for peace. The risks to our democratic societies will not diminish, regardless of the outcome of Russia’s war in Ukraine."

Conclusion:

"The Euro-Atlantic community must fully acknowledge that there is no turning back to a pre-24 February 2022 world. Russia has articulated its strategic aims plain as a day."

"NATO must be prepared, and the action plan is simple: first, NATO must complete the strategy shift from deterrence by punishment to deterrence by denial, in order to truly deter Russia. Might in words is not enough – these words should be converted to real and visible changes."

(Sorry, had to post this in two halves but got hit by the Twitter outage right in the middle.)

Finally, if you did miss the Estonian Intelligence report then @michaeldweiss has an excellent write-up here:

https://twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1623317994624503808