Yesterday, we hosted a thought provoking debate on the possibility of a Sino-Western mediation & China's role in the current #RussianWar in #Ukraine️ w/ Huang Jing, @AlexGabuev @CEIP_Politika , @thorstenbenner @GPPi & moderated by @PradnyaBivalkar.
Key takeaways🧵1/7
Key takeaways🧵1/7
There are no signs that any party wants to stop the war, the US still gives weapons, European countries have a strong attitude, but no clear decision, no clearly defined policy, they are very driven but don't control the situation. China is asking with whom should we work?
2/7
2/7
Putin is not interested in any kind of negotiations and any kind of mediation. If Russia stops, the war is over. If Ukraine stops, there will be no Ukraine.
3/7
3/7
Putin's Russia is obsessed with the war & winning it. It is ready for an increased Chinese presence in the Russian economy, defense & technology. It will contribute to the perception of winning the war (since both are being perceived on the same side) & bringing the US down.
4/7
4/7
The West should be realistic & have strategic empathy towards China. They should not try to project an image of China they want to see, but rather focus on the China that it is - a global power.
5/7
5/7
China doesn't take sides, China is on China's side. However, a liberal pro-West Russia or an unstable Russia is not in China's interest. So, China will try to keep Russia close while still maintaining a strategic distance.
6/7
6/7
When it comes to Central Asia, Russia could still create big problems there. China is the backbone for economic security, tech, finance in the region but not yet influential enough. Russia still has a high influence in Central Asia but it is an unpredictable partner for them.
7/7
7/7
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